ATL: LAURA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[sma10]

And here is SCAT SAT of the same area..

not any better. 2 hours later.

next up are the ASCATs I am guessing they will be very similar.

at least two models show all these vorts ( HWRF/HMON)

https://i.ibb.co/6HNTNTr/scasa-20200818-22-43-flag.png

Obviously nothing of consequence will develop with multiple vorts. How long do you think before it coalesces .. couple days?

[eastcoastFL]

And here is SCAT SAT of the same area..

not any better. 2 hours later.

next up are the ASCATs I am guessing they will be very similar.

at least two models show all these vorts ( HWRF/HMON)

https://i.ibb.co/6HNTNTr/scasa-20200818-22-43-flag.png

Interesting. HWRF has a cat 3 heading into the SE Bahamas. One heck of a tease to end a model run. HMON has same intensity.

[Nimbus]

And here is SCAT SAT of the same area..

not any better. 2 hours later.

next up are the ASCATs I am guessing they will be very similar.

at least two models show all these vorts ( HWRF/HMON)

https://i.ibb.co/6HNTNTr/scasa-20200818-22-43-flag.png

Interesting. HWRF has a cat 3 heading into the SE Bahamas. One heck of a tease to end a model run. HMON has same intensity.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/hwrf/2020081818/hwrf_ref_98L_40.png

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/hmon/2020081818/hmon_ref_98L_42.png

HWRF has it a closed circulation at 12.5 N 18Z run tomorrow so that will be easy to verify, I think it will be south of there but NHC is up to 90% in the 48 hour window so..

[Aric Dunn]

And here is he first ASCAT.

yeah not any better.

so we wait.. to see how this pulse down and pulse back up phase helps consolidates things.

[Hurricane Mike]

Tuesday Evening Tropical Update
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=weEqUcv3X48

[Blown Away]

The 00z guidance & intensity posted, major hurricane being predicted and no land interaction until SE Bahamas... TVCN is near 23N/75W in 120 hours... 98L must be taking fast ride under a strong HP to cover that ground, if so once NHC declares 98L the 5 day cone will be very close to SFL and maybe nearing Major status... It may be time soon to name 98L... JMHO

[eastcoastFL]

The 00z guidance & intensity posted, major hurricane being predicted and no land interaction until SE Bahamas... TVCN is near 23N/75W in 120 hours... 98L must be taking fast ride under a strong HP to cover that ground, if so once NHC declares 98L the 5 day cone will be very close to SFL and maybe nearing Major status... It may be time soon to name 98L... JMHO

If it can close off tomorrow it may get a name in the next 24 hours. It’s still pretty far out there considering CONUS. SFWMD mentioned it could effect our area by Monday.

[SFLcane]

The 00z guidance & intensity posted, major hurricane being predicted and no land interaction until SE Bahamas... TVCN is near 23N/75W in 120 hours... 98L must be taking fast ride under a strong HP to cover that ground, if so once NHC declares 98L the 5 day cone will be very close to SFL and maybe nearing Major status... It may be time soon to name 98L... JMHO

There goes your land interaction.

[Blown Away]

The 00z guidance & intensity posted, major hurricane being predicted and no land interaction until SE Bahamas... TVCN is near 23N/75W in 120 hours... 98L must be taking fast ride under a strong HP to cover that ground, if so once NHC declares 98L the 5 day cone will be very close to SFL and maybe nearing Major status... It may be time soon to name 98L... JMHO

If it can close off tomorrow it may get a name in the next 24 hours. It’s still pretty far out there considering CONUS. SFWMD mentioned it could effect our area by Monday.

Yes, and Monday is August 24th...

[DestinHurricane]

The 00z guidance & intensity posted, major hurricane being predicted and no land interaction until SE Bahamas... TVCN is near 23N/75W in 120 hours... 98L must be taking fast ride under a strong HP to cover that ground, if so once NHC declares 98L the 5 day cone will be very close to SFL and maybe nearing Major status... It may be time soon to name 98L... JMHO

Well we should be skeptical about that TVCN intensity (IVCN). Some unreliable models are inflating that average.

[eastcoastFL]

No serious shear out there right now

[toad strangler]

The 00z guidance & intensity posted, major hurricane being predicted and no land interaction until SE Bahamas... TVCN is near 23N/75W in 120 hours... 98L must be taking fast ride under a strong HP to cover that ground, if so once NHC declares 98L the 5 day cone will be very close to SFL and maybe nearing Major status... It may be time soon to name 98L... JMHO

If it can close off tomorrow it may get a name in the next 24 hours. It’s still pretty far out there considering CONUS. SFWMD mentioned it could effect our area by Monday.

Yes, and Monday is August 24th...

yeah don't go there.

[eastcoastFL]

The 00z guidance & intensity posted, major hurricane being predicted and no land interaction until SE Bahamas... TVCN is near 23N/75W in 120 hours... 98L must be taking fast ride under a strong HP to cover that ground, if so once NHC declares 98L the 5 day cone will be very close to SFL and maybe nearing Major status... It may be time soon to name 98L... JMHO

Well we should be skeptical about that TVCN intensity (IVCN). Some unreliable models are inflating that average.

I’m skeptical of anything calling for a Cat 5 this early but I’m not loving the idea of intensity guidance starting to trend up.

[eastcoastFL]

The 00z guidance & intensity posted, major hurricane being predicted and no land interaction until SE Bahamas... TVCN is near 23N/75W in 120 hours... 98L must be taking fast ride under a strong HP to cover that ground, if so once NHC declares 98L the 5 day cone will be very close to SFL and maybe nearing Major status... It may be time soon to name 98L... JMHO

If it can close off tomorrow it may get a name in the next 24 hours. It’s still pretty far out there considering CONUS. SFWMD mentioned it could effect our area by Monday.

Yes, and Monday is August 24th...

Yah and he came on a Monday as well...

[Blown Away]

The 00z guidance & intensity posted, major hurricane being predicted and no land interaction until SE Bahamas... TVCN is near 23N/75W in 120 hours... 98L must be taking fast ride under a strong HP to cover that ground, if so once NHC declares 98L the 5 day cone will be very close to SFL and maybe nearing Major status... It may be time soon to name 98L... JMHO

Well we should be skeptical about that TVCN intensity (IVCN). Some unreliable models are inflating that average.

I’m skeptical of anything calling for a Cat 5 this early but I’m not loving the idea of intensity guidance starting to trend up.

All I’m saying is if the NHC starts advisories they almost always follow the TVCN very closely and based on the 00z guidance there would likely be a a track showing a hurricane near 23N/75W in 5 days...

[cycloneye]

00z Best Track:

AL, 98, 2020081900, , BEST, 0, 112N, 411W, 25, 1009, LO, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1012, 150, 70, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, M

At 0000 UTC, 19 August 2020, LOW INVEST 98 (AL98) was located in the North Atlantic basin at 11.2°N and 41.1°W. The current intensity was 25 kt and the center was moving at 15 kt at a bearing of 270 degrees. The minimum central pressure was 1009 mb.

[SFLcane]

[Hurricaneman]

Based on ASCAT And satellite the eastern Vort is stretching out and dissipating

[GeneratorPower]

Look I'm pretty conservative lately on anything getting going in the ATL but I think many on here are in denial. Maybe folks just don't want to get uber excited unnecessarily. But reverse psychology isn't going to work on this puppy. I think looking at tonight's IR it looks like the western portion is becoming dominant. HWRF might be overdoing it but it's a totally plausible outcome. I am taking 98L very seriously and expect it to become a threat in a matter of hours or days.

[eastcoastFL]

Well we should be skeptical about that TVCN intensity (IVCN). Some unreliable models are inflating that average.

I’m skeptical of anything calling for a Cat 5 this early but I’m not loving the idea of intensity guidance starting to trend up.

All I’m saying is if the NHC starts advisories they almost always follow the TVCN very closely and based on the 00z guidance there would likely be a a track showing a hurricane near 23N/75W in 5 days...

I agree, but there’s really no way around it. It’s still not a TD so they can’t classify it yet. We’re almost always in the cone in the first advisory and probably will be this time too. If it gets named at 11pm tomorrow we’ll be 5 days out.