ATL: LAURA - Models

[eastcoastFL]

The HWRF did very well with Hurricane Hanna.

If you predict RI every time, you'll be right a few times. See: Michael, Hanna.

Does HMON and HWRF typically forecast RI?

[DestinHurricane]

The HWRF did very well with Hurricane Hanna.

If you predict RI every time, you'll be right a few times. See: Michael, Hanna.

Does HMON and HWRF typically forecast RI?

Both of them are typically very bullish. Often do forecast RI.

[sma10]

I wouldn’t waste time with the HWRF. The model almost always is way too dramatic. Think about Gonzalo. Had a CAT 3. Not even close. The model does a bit better when we already have a storm but even then it is shady for lack of a better word. Hanna was a rare coupe for the model. In this case, we have a mess with two competing vorts. Oh since we are talking about some of the not so good models, the NAVGEM dropped 98l like a bag of bricks, Stick with the GFS and Euro here.

Regarding the GFS, which split personality shall we stick with? The one at 12z that buries 98L into the Antilles and comes ashore the FL panhandle as a wave? Or the 18z which rides up the eastern FL peninsula and becomes a hurricane in the Carolinas?

[Keldeo1997]

Uhhh HWRF you ok there buddy?

[eastcoastFL]

I wouldn’t waste time with the HWRF. The model almost always is way too dramatic. Think about Gonzalo. Had a CAT 3. Not even close. The model does a bit better when we already have a storm but even then it is shady for lack of a better word. Hanna was a rare coupe for the model. In this case, we have a mess with two competing vorts. Oh since we are talking about some of the not so good models, the NAVGEM dropped 98l like a bag of bricks, Stick with the GFS and Euro here.

Regarding the GFS, which split personality shall we stick with? The one at 12z that buries 98L into the Antilles and comes ashore the FL panhandle as a wave? Or the 18z which rides up the eastern FL peninsula and becomes a hurricane in the Carolinas?

Let’s not forget the little cyclonic loop it does while it’s over Florida drifting back and forth over water and land. This model is all over the place.

[eastcoastFL]

https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/716215692617187328/745457108660781096/98L_intensity_latest.png


Uhhh HWRF you ok there buddy?

Cat 5 is thankfully the outlier but all in all intensity seems to be trending upwards over the past 24 hrs. Hopefully it doesn’t continue.

[supercane4867]

FWIW

HWRF Model Leads the Pack in Performance for 2017 Atlantic Hurricane Season

[StrongWind]

Check out 00z guidance & intensity... Wow what a change of events...

When people make a "check this out" post, please be considerate and include a link to what you want us to look at. Thank you in advance.

[eastcoastFL]

FWIW

HWRF Model Leads the Pack in Performance for 2017 Atlantic Hurricane Season

Scary, I didn’t know it did so well with Irma who came from the same area as 98l with a similar forecast track and also with Harvey intensity which almost every other model failed with

[BobHarlem]

0z early models shifted right from earlier, no more TVCN land runner, intensity models went way up also, with I/TVCN showing a cat 3 at then end of the run.

[eastcoastFL]

0z early models shifted right from earlier, no more TVCN land runner, intensity models went way up also, with I/TVCN showing a cat 3 at then end of the run.
https://i.imgur.com/csRV2Dq.gif

Edited: please delete

[NDG]

I would had been questioning the HWRF if it would had been strengthening 98L right away, but is not doing much with it over the next 60 hrs or so just as I expect while it consolidates and fights off some dry air to its NW on its way to the Lesser Antilles. It is just seeing the better conditions it will have down the road just like the latest SHIPS model shows, if it is able to stay away from Hispaniola.
Lets not forget that it did a very fairly good job with not being so aggressive with Isaias while it tracked through the Bahamas and off of the FL coast.

[BobHarlem]

0z early models shifted right from earlier, no more TVCN land runner, intensity models went way up also, with I/TVCN showing a cat 3 at then end of the run.
https://i.imgur.com/csRV2Dq.gif

Let’s hope the next run keeps going right. Waaay right. I wouldn’t mind tracking a Cat 5 headed for the arctic.

Good to see the TVCN avg is turning before FL now. Maybe they’ll miss the Bahamas in a few runs

TVCN isn't turning, last point is south of Andros island. still moving WNW as a cat 3.

[NDG]

0z early models shifted right from earlier, no more TVCN land runner, intensity models went way up also, with I/TVCN showing a cat 3 at then end of the run.
https://i.imgur.com/csRV2Dq.gif

Let’s hope the next run keeps going right. Waaay right. I wouldn’t mind tracking a Cat 5 headed for the arctic.

Good to see the TVCN avg is turning before FL now. Maybe they’ll miss the Bahamas in a few runs

The latest TVCN does not show turning before FL, where do you see that?

[eastcoastFL]

0z early models shifted right from earlier, no more TVCN land runner, intensity models went way up also, with I/TVCN showing a cat 3 at then end of the run.
https://i.imgur.com/csRV2Dq.gif

Let’s hope the next run keeps going right. Waaay right. I wouldn’t mind tracking a Cat 5 headed for the arctic.

Good to see the TVCN avg is turning before FL now. Maybe they’ll miss the Bahamas in a few runs

TVCN isn't turning, last point is south of Andros island. still moving WNW as a cat 3.

You’re right. I read that wrong or just wanted it to be turning there...

[TheStormExpert]

We need an actual center and storm to form before we look too much at the hurricane models. We saw this same story of over-intensifying Isaias in its early stages.

And we also saw the HWRF be correct with Hanna just a few days prior to that, despite the global models failing to show anything.

Will also point out the global models consistently played catchup with Hanna and Isaias.

The HWRF tends to be over bullish. I’m not buying it until a well developed storm forms.

[SFLcane]

00z TCVN is not recurving.

[eastcoastFL]

We need an actual center and storm to form before we look too much at the hurricane models. We saw this same story of over-intensifying Isaias in its early stages.

And we also saw the HWRF be correct with Hanna just a few days prior to that, despite the global models failing to show anything.

Will also point out the global models consistently played catchup with Hanna and Isaias.

The HWRF tends to be over bullish. I’m not buying it until a well developed storm forms.

Which storms has it over done ? I can’t remember how models performed a year ago unless it was something major. But I don’t think it went too crazy with Isaias or Hanna. Did it blow up any early storms?

[St0rmTh0r]

And we also saw the HWRF be correct with Hanna just a few days prior to that, despite the global models failing to show anything.

Will also point out the global models consistently played catchup with Hanna and Isaias.

The HWRF tends to be over bullish. I’m not buying it until a well developed storm forms.

Which storms has it over done ? I can’t remember how models performed a year ago unless it was something major. But I don’t think it went too crazy with Isaias or Hanna. Did it blow up any early storms?

The fact that its showing a potential cat 5 shows conditions will be favorable down the road the same with the ships going up on intensity

[Hammy]

And we also saw the HWRF be correct with Hanna just a few days prior to that, despite the global models failing to show anything.

Will also point out the global models consistently played catchup with Hanna and Isaias.

The HWRF tends to be over bullish. I’m not buying it until a well developed storm forms.

Which storms has it over done ? I can’t remember how models performed a year ago unless it was something major. But I don’t think it went too crazy with Isaias or Hanna. Did it blow up any early storms?

It took both Gonzalo and Isaias to or near major intensity.