WPAC: HIGOS - Post-Tropical

[doomhaMwx]

It seems to be moving more NW rather than WNW on the latest HKO radar frames. Macau is under the gun.

[mrbagyo]

Signal number 8 is also now hoisted over Macau, who knows this might even necessitate hoisting of signal 9 or 10.

[Ed_2001]

Inner core of the system starting to affect the Pearl River delta region including the southern portions of Hong Kong. From observations, Wind isn’t terribly intense in HK so far, but a gust of 124km/h (77mph) was reported at Cheung Chau earlier.

Signal 9 in place for both HK and Macau now.

[Ed_2001]

Tropical Cyclone Warning Bulletin

Here is the latest Tropical Cyclone Warning Bulletin issued by the Hong Kong Observatory.

The Increasing Gale or Storm Signal, No. 9, is in force.

This means that winds are expected to increase significantly as Higos moves closer to Hong Kong.

At 4 a.m., Typhoon Higos was centred about 80 kilometres southwest of Hong Kong Observatory (near 21.8 degrees north 113.6 degrees east) and is forecast to move northwest or west-northwest at about 20 kilometres per hour towards the vicinity of the coast to the west of the Pearl River Estuary.

Higos is now closest to Hong Kong, skirting within 100 kilometres to the southwest of the Hong Kong Observatory. Higos is bringing heavy squally showers to the vicinity of Pearl River Estuary. Winds will be higher over the western part of Hong Kong. The Increasing Gale or Storm Signal, No. 9 will remain in force for a period of time in the early morning. Members of the public are reminded to note the latest weather information before departing in the morning.

There will be high seas with swells. Members of the public are advised to stay away from the shoreline and not to engage in water sports.

Owing to storm surge, some low-lying areas may have flooding or backflow of seawater in the morning. the morning.

In the past hour, the maximum sustained winds recorded at Cheung Chau, Waglan Island and Cheung Chau Beach were 93, 89 and 85 kilometres per hour with maximum gusts all exceeding 112 kilometres per hour.

(Precautionary Announcements)

1. Do not go outside. If you are reasonably protected, stay where you are. Do not touch electric cables that have been blown loose.

2. Stay away from exposed windows and doors because glass, already under strain from wind pressure, will shatter easily if hit by a flying object. Make sure you have a safe place to shelter. You should only fix broken windows and doors when there is no danger in doing so.

3. People outdoors should find a safe place now and remain there until the danger is over.

Dispatched by Hong Kong Observatory at 03:45 HKT on 19.08.2020

[euro6208]

55 knots.

WDPN31 PGTW 182100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 08W (HIGOS)
WARNING NR 005//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TROPICAL STORM (TS) 08W (HIGOS), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 48 NM
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF HONG KONG, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT
10 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED EIR SATELLITE IMAGERY
DEPICTS DEEP CONVECTION HAS WRAPPED TIGHTER INTO THE LLC. THE
INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH FAIR CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE
CIRCULATION EVIDENT IN THE COMPOSITE RADAR LOOP AND THE LLC FEATURE
PRESENT IN THE 181516Z GPM 36GHZ IMAGE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF
55KTS IS HELD HIGHER THAN AGENCY DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES
OF T3.0 (45 KTS) TO REFLECT THE IMPROVED 6HR EIR STRUCTURE OF THE
SYSTEM. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS INDICATES FAVORABLE CONDITIONS WITH
LOW (5-10 KTS) VWS AND MODERATE EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW. HOWEVER, THE
EIR LOOP ALSO SHOWS THE SYSTEM IS BEGINNING TO INTERACT WITH THE
CHINESE COAST. THE CYCLONE IS TRACKING THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE
STR TO THE NORTH.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE PREVIOUS
PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
B. TS HIGOS IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ON ITS CURRENT TRACK AND MAKE
LANDFALL NEAR TAU 06 APPROXIMATELY 65NM WEST-SOUTHWEST OF HONG KONG.
AFTER LANDFALL, THE RUGGED TERRAIN OF MAINLAND CHINA, IN ADDITION TO
INCREASING VWS, WILL CAUSE THE SYSTEM TO RAPIDLY ERODE THE SYSTEM TO
FULL DISSIPATION OVER LAND BY TAU 24. NUMERICAL MODELS REMAIN IN
TIGHT AGREEMENT WITH MINOR SPREAD IN MODEL SOLUTIONS, LENDING HIGH
CONFIDENCE IN THE OVERALL JTWC TRACK FORECAST WHICH IS LAID JUST TO
THE LEFT OF MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS TO OFFSET NAVGEM.//
NNNN

[Ed_2001]

Macau just issued hurricane signal no.10

[Ed_2001]

Sustained hurricane force winds observed in Macau for the third time since 2017,

Edit: gusting to 171km/h (106mph)

[Ed_2001]

Very close to landfall

[doomhaMwx]

Eye coming ashore just west of Macau. Those strong onshore winds in the eastern eyewall are also pushing in a >1m storm surge.

[Ed_2001]

High-end STS according to JMA

<Analysis at 21 UTC, 18 August>
Scale -
Intensity -
Center position N21°50' (21.8°)
E113°30' (113.5°)
Direction and speed of movement WNW 15 km/h (9 kt)
Central pressure 992 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 30 m/s (55 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 40 m/s (80 kt)
≥ 50 kt wind area ALL 35 km (20 NM)
≥ 30 kt wind area E 185 km (100 NM)
W 110 km (60 NM)

<Forecast for 09 UTC, 19 August>
Intensity -
Center position of probability circle N23°05' (23.1°)
E111°10' (111.2°)
Direction and speed of movement WNW 20 km/h (12 kt)
Central pressure 1000 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 20 m/s (40 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 30 m/s (60 kt)
Radius of probability circle 75 km (40 NM)

<Forecast for 21 UTC, 19 August>
Intensity -
TD
Center position of probability circle N24°20' (24.3°)
E108°50' (108.8°)
Direction and speed of movement WNW 25 km/h (13 kt)
Central pressure 1004 hPa
Radius of probability circle 105 km (57 NM)

[doomhaMwx]

ZCZC
WHCI40 BABJ 182200
TY 2007 (2007) HIGOS LANDED ON ZHUHAI GUANGDONG PROVINCE
182200GMT (35m/s)
NNNN

[mrbagyo]

Macau scored another direct hit. 3 direct hits within the last 4 years ( Hato, Mangkhut, Higos)

[doomhaMwx]

Typhoon-force sustained winds of 120-135kph (10-min) were recorded and the barometer bottomed to ~985mb in Macau.

[Ed_2001]

Typhoon-force sustained winds of 120-135kph (10-min) were recorded and the barometer bottomed to ~985mb in Macau.

In contrast, nearby Hong Kong only 80km (50 miles) from the center despite issuing the second highest typhoon signal, mostly saw sustained wind below gale force, save for the southwestern outlying islands that had storm force winds. Pressure at the HK observatory never fell below 1000 mb as well. Tiny, compact storm. Seems to be the general theme so far this underwhelming season— numerous small sized, moderate strength typhoons forming close to land and hitting China.

[mrbagyo]

Footage from Macau

[euro6208]

I'd be surprise if JTWC doesn't mention the observation in their next discussion which clearly shows a typhoon on landfall.

[Hayabusa]

Typhoon-force sustained winds of 120-135kph (10-min) were recorded and the barometer bottomed to ~985mb in Macau.

In contrast, nearby Hong Kong only 80km (50 miles) from the center despite issuing the second highest typhoon signal, mostly saw sustained wind below gale force, save for the southwestern outlying islands that had storm force winds. Pressure at the HK observatory never fell below 1000 mb as well. Tiny, compact storm. Seems to be the general theme so far this underwhelming season— numerous small sized, moderate strength typhoons forming close to land and hitting China.

That will change starting September, the epic monsters or one epic monster will finally form.

[euro6208]

Oh well, better wait until postseason for an upgrade.

WTPN31 PGTW 190300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL STORM 08W (HIGOS) WARNING NR 006//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 08W (HIGOS) WARNING NR 006
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
190000Z --- NEAR 22.3N 113.0E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 315 DEGREES AT 10 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 015 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF
SATELLITE, RADAR, SYNOPTIC DATA AND EXTRAPOLATION
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 22.3N 113.0E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
191200Z --- 23.5N 110.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
200000Z --- 24.7N 108.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
190300Z POSITION NEAR 22.6N 112.5E.
19AUG20. TROPICAL STORM 08W (HIGOS), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 67 NM
WEST OF HONG KONG, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MSI AND COMPOSITE RADAR IMAGERY INDICATES
THE SYSTEM HAS MADE LANDFALL APPROXIMATELY 52NM WEST-SOUTHWEST HONG
KONG AND BEGUN TO RAPIDLY ERODE. INITIAL POSITION BASED ON DEFINED
LLC ON RADAR WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE. INITIAL INTENSITY IS EXTRAPOLATED
FROM NEARBY OBSERVATIONS AND REFLECTS THE RAPID DECAY. TS 08W WILL
CONTINUE TO TRACK FURTHER INLAND OVER RUGGED TERRAIN AND DISSIPATE
BY TAU 24 DUE TO FRICTIONAL EFFECTS. NUMERICAL MODELS ARE IN TIGHT
AGREEMENT LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE TO THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST.
THIS IS THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM BY THE JOINT TYPHOON
WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI. THE SYSTEM WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED FOR
SIGNS OF REGENERATION.//
NNNN

[Meow]

High-end STS according to JMA

55kt is not high-end STS at all.

[Ed_2001]

High-end STS according to JMA

55kt is not high-end STS at all.

My mistake, paid too much attention to the 30m/s part. Although surface observations obviously proves that it’s stronger than a STS.