eastcoastFL wrote:Gfs 132hrs blob heading towards Fl
Likely a TS at this point.
ATL: LAURA - Models
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Blown Away
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Re: ATL: INVEST 98L - Models
Likely a TS at this point.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 98L - Models
0z GFS, Will probably not be a FL east coast hugger like its previous 18z run. Stronger ridging on this run.
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TheStormExpert
Re: ATL: INVEST 98L - Models
Steve wrote:TheStormExpert wrote:Levi Cowan said don’t bother looking at the models until something consolidates.
I didn't get to watch it, but his video yesterday popped up on my youtube feed and had like 21,000 views. That's pretty awesome for him.
Yeah he doesn’t sound too concerned just yet. First needs to consolidate. Probably won’t see much development until at least Saturday.
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eastcoastFL
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Re: ATL: INVEST 98L - Models
Gfs in the keys now so way south and west of the 18z at 1002mb
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Re: ATL: INVEST 98L - Models
00z GFS 144 hrs... TS landfall Middle Keys moving NNW
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eastcoastFL
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Re: ATL: INVEST 98L - Models
Blown Away wrote:eastcoastFL wrote:Gfs 132hrs blob heading towards Fl
Likely a TS at this point.
Looks like a TS in the keys 1001mb Heading to the gulf
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eastcoastFL
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Re: ATL: INVEST 98L - Models
ICON makes land fall at 944mb in the big bend area..
Last edited by eastcoastFL on Tue Aug 18, 2020 11:15 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 98L - Models
This is the strongest run by the GFS on 98L compared to its previous 7-8 runs.
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WeatherEmperor
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Re: ATL: INVEST 98L - Models
GFS shows a TS in the middle keys maybe??
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Kazmit
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Re: ATL: INVEST 98L - Models
Maybe the GFS is starting to come around. If it wasn't for land interaction it may have shown a much stronger storm crossing the keys.
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toad strangler
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Re: ATL: INVEST 98L - Models
Kazmit wrote:Maybe the GFS is starting to come around. If it wasn't for land interaction it may have shown a much stronger storm crossing the keys.
No land interaction to the N would probably mean barreling into S FL
Last edited by toad strangler on Tue Aug 18, 2020 11:17 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 98L - Models
Only reason it's weak is because it takes the long ride through the islands. if it missed the islands to the north we would be talking about something different IMO. One takeaway from the runs so far is the pattern. HP to the north sending everything into the Gulf. That in itself should be a bit concerning
Last edited by caneseddy on Tue Aug 18, 2020 11:18 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Kazmit
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Re: ATL: INVEST 98L - Models
Deepening west of Florida.
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eastcoastFL
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Re: ATL: INVEST 98L - Models
Gfs cruising in the gulf on Tuesday as a Cat 1
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Re: ATL: INVEST 98L - Models
00z GFS... 166 hrs moving NW in EGOM... Strong Cat 1
Last edited by Blown Away on Tue Aug 18, 2020 11:19 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 98L - Models
TheStormExpert wrote:Kazmit wrote:Ready to get shredded through the islands for the hundredth time.
https://img.techpowerup.org/200819/gfs-mslp-pcpn-watl-14.png
Usually the GFS is right biased, so I wonder if a track south of the Greater Antilles is possible?
It's right-biased with stronger storms, left biased with weaker ones. It had Isaias going over the Greater Antilles and dissipating when it was about where 98L is if I remember correctly.
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eastcoastFL
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Re: ATL: INVEST 98L - Models
toad strangler wrote:Kazmit wrote:Maybe the GFS is starting to come around. If it wasn't for land interaction it may have shown a much stronger storm crossing the keys.
No land interaction to the N would probably mean barreling into S FL
Icon misses the islands and still stays south of the peninsula through the keys
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eastcoastFL
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Re: ATL: INVEST 98L - Models
Gfs heading further west into the GOM
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Re: ATL: INVEST 98L - Models
CMC first one to sniff out the pattern I believe several runs ago.
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