ATL: LAURA - Models
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FLpanhandle91
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Re: ATL: INVEST 98L - Models
Ridging over Texas causing a stall. Trough misses it to the north. Does it ride the ridge back southwest? Lol
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eastcoastFL
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Re: ATL: INVEST 98L - Models
Lol, GFS drifting back south now at 222hrs
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Blown Away
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Re: ATL: INVEST 98L - Models
00z GFS... 216 hours, stalls offshore LA/Bama and weakens to TS... Crazy how the GFS has been mostly L outlier for this storm...
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Re: ATL: INVEST 98L - Models
Shell Mound wrote:toad strangler wrote:Shell Mound wrote:It would be rather unlikely for a strong hurricane to make landfall in the Keys so soon after Irma (2017). If 98L heads to South FL, then Miami is more likely.
Wow, please explain that one. These storms don't follow a script. Frances and Jeanne landfalled within TWO miles of each other and just TWO weeks apart in 2004. NOTHING since then.
Climatologically, hurricane landfalls are rare, and two (major?) hurricanes hitting the same area (Keys) within three years would be even rarer. But I could be wrong.
Dade/Broward county Florida got hit by a hurricane in 1945, 1947, 1948, 1949 and 1950. All majors
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Re: ATL: INVEST 98L - Models
And of course, the Canadian now decides to go south and cross Hispaniola heading toward eastern Cuba 
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AutoPenalti
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Re: ATL: INVEST 98L - Models
WeatherEmperor wrote:The model roaler coaster continues. Canadian comes in much weaker
https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20200819/fbaff0bb1ebae3af717417ac7ae04392.jpg
Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
If it weren’t for the precipitation rate, you wouldn’t even tell a wave was there.
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Model Runs Cheat Sheet:
GFS (5:30 AM/PM, 11:30 AM/PM)
HWRF, GFDL, UKMET, NAVGEM (6:30-8:00 AM/PM, 12:30-2:00 AM/PM)
ECMWF (1:45 AM/PM)
TCVN is a weighted averaged
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Cataegis96
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Re: ATL: INVEST 98L - Models
The CMC decides to tangle the low in Hispaniola. The rest of this run will likely look a lot like the 0Z GFS.
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AutoPenalti
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Re: ATL: INVEST 98L - Models
CMC really trying to flood the islands, goodness.
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The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the NHC and NWS.
Model Runs Cheat Sheet:
GFS (5:30 AM/PM, 11:30 AM/PM)
HWRF, GFDL, UKMET, NAVGEM (6:30-8:00 AM/PM, 12:30-2:00 AM/PM)
ECMWF (1:45 AM/PM)
TCVN is a weighted averaged
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Blown Away
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Re: ATL: INVEST 98L - Models
@800 mile swing in 00z GFS vs 18z @234 hrs
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eastcoastFL
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Re: ATL: INVEST 98L - Models
Gfs pretty much goes no where for 2 days straight. If this happens I don’t know if it’s worse for it to happen over land or sea. Flooding would be awful on land. I’d like to hope upwelling would just weaken it but Dorian sat there for 2 days as a monster
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The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
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lsuhurricane
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eastcoastFL
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Re: ATL: INVEST 98L - Models
HMON looks like a TS in 24 hours 1005mb
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The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
Re: ATL: INVEST 98L - Models
It seems the more we know ... the less we actually know 
What is apparent is that the quicker 98L consolidates, the more likely it is to slow down a bit and head more NW above the islands. If it is slow to coalesce, it will likely speed thru the large islands as a messy slop
What is apparent is that the quicker 98L consolidates, the more likely it is to slow down a bit and head more NW above the islands. If it is slow to coalesce, it will likely speed thru the large islands as a messy slop
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Blown Away
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Re: ATL: INVEST 98L - Models
00z GFS... After drifting just off coast of LA/Bama for a few days... 98L finally landfalls near Bama/FL line as Cat 1/2...
Last edited by Blown Away on Tue Aug 18, 2020 11:43 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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eastcoastFL
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Re: ATL: INVEST 98L - Models
Gfs deepens again and hits the bama/fl border
What a whacky run. This thing never disappoints
What a whacky run. This thing never disappoints
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The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
Re: ATL: INVEST 98L - Models
lsuhurricane wrote:CMC with two storms in the gulf as well.....
That loud sound you just heard was wxman57 dropping to the ground in a faint
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FLpanhandle91
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Re: ATL: INVEST 98L - Models
00z GFS landfall in Mobile Bay after a 42 hour stall just offshore. Trough eventually scoops it up.
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eastcoastFL
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Re: ATL: INVEST 98L - Models
Blown Away wrote:00z GFS... After drifting just off coast of LA/Bama for a few days... 98L finally landfalls near Bama/FL line as Cat 1/2...
Still not moving too far 24 hours after landfall
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The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
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lsuhurricane
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Re: ATL: INVEST 98L - Models
Strong Cat 2 landfall on CMC near the LA/MS border. Talk about some run to run consistency at least!
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eastcoastFL
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Re: ATL: INVEST 98L - Models
Gfs has this thing just soaking the SE US. This type of scenario would cause massive flooding
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The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
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