ATL: LAURA - Models

[Keldeo1997]

CMC is slowing down and almost stalling to like the GFS

[eastcoastFL]

HMON starting to get together 45hrs

[eastcoastFL]

CMC and gfs are almost identical

[sma10]

If you took the CMC map at hour 150 verbatim ... every square inch of the Gulf from Marco Island, FL to Brownsville, TX would be under some kind of watch/warning

[sma10]

CMC and gfs are almost identical

The CMC destroys New Orleans

[eastcoastFL]

HMON picking up steam at 54hrs, starting to wrap up

[eastcoastFL]

CMC and gfs are almost identical

The CMC destroys New Orleans

You mean rain wise?

[sma10]

CMC and gfs are almost identical

The CMC destroys New Orleans

You mean rain wise?

20" of rain and hurricane winds for 24 hrs .. yikes

[eastcoastFL]

The CMC destroys New Orleans

You mean rain wise?

20" of rain and hurricane winds for 24 hrs .. yikes

That stall before it moves on shore would probably bring a good amount of rain to parts of the city just with the bands passing through for days

[Fancy1001]

Can someone post a picture of the 00z model intensity guidance from tropical tidbits.

[sma10]

GFS ensemble, looks like majority of members pass N of islands

[WeatherEmperor]

Looks loke the GFS Ensemble Mean has 98L right over South Florida




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[SouthFLTropics]

Practically every GEFS Ensemble clears the GA to the North. There’s definitely some disagreement with the operational. We need some Upper Level Flight Data. Gotta have more recon baby!!! Any word when the G-IV might go out?


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[USTropics]

Can someone post a picture of the 00z model intensity guidance from tropical tidbits.

Note those are HWRF/HMON/GFS interpreted from 18z (not the current 00z run):

[caneseddy]

So the takeaway from tonight's runs so far is the following:

1. HP built in solidly all to the way to the Gulf Coast, preventing any OTS tracks
2. Conditions are ripe for intensification north of the islands all the way to the Gulf (note that even the GFS and CMC which take 98L through the islands intensify it when they emerge into the Straits and then become hurricanes in the Gulf (if they stayed north of the islands, I'd bet they would be hurricanes in the Bahamas)
3. Any impact on the US would be early next week (Monday-Tuesday timeframe)

Sit back and enjoy the ride

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the NHC and NWS.

[CrazyC83]

ICON would be a repeat of the 1935 hurricane, hopefully not at the same intensity.

[caneseddy]

HMON further south than previous run but still goes north of Puerto Rico heading WNW with the center passing between Virgin Gorda and The Settlement as a strong TS

[EquusStorm]

Some of these runs are looking... interesting for the AL coast. Both for 97L and 98L. This is looking like a very ominous season for the Gulf Coast

[sma10]

ICON would be a repeat of the 1935 hurricane, hopefully not at the same intensity.

God forbid!

Also, would be significantly larger. 1935 was very small sized

[gfsperpendicular]

King CMC agrees with the GFS about a potential stall in the GoM. Looks like large left shifts for both?