ATL: LAURA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[SFLcane]

Copy and paste from the NHC at 8am.

[Aric Dunn]

Looks like TUTT is going to shred this apart, not sure this will survive much longer. Still too many competing vortices.

you mean this one that is lifting out and opening the door for a good outflow channel ?

[ouragans]

98L may have a hard time to reach the islands intact. That may explain why Euro dropped any delopment

[AutoPenalti]

Looks like TUTT is going to shred this apart, not sure this will survive much longer. Still too many competing vortices.

you mean this one that is lifting out and opening the door for a good outflow channel ?

https://i.ibb.co/1XwgTy5/3.gif

https://i.ibb.co/b5hgW3g/goes16-wv-mid-atl.gif

Yes, doesn’t seem to be lifting out at the moment, if anything it’s strengthening, unless my sleepy eyes are getting it mixed up.

[Aric Dunn]

Looks like TUTT is going to shred this apart, not sure this will survive much longer. Still too many competing vortices.

you mean this one that is lifting out and opening the door for a good outflow channel ?

https://i.ibb.co/1XwgTy5/3.gif

https://i.ibb.co/b5hgW3g/goes16-wv-mid-atl.gif

Yes, doesn’t seem to be lifting out at the moment, if anything it’s strengthening, unless my sleepy eyes are getting it mixed up.

your eyes are sleepy

check the first and last positions..

say bye bye to mr tutt

http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/a ... _loop.html

[NDG]

Mind blowing that the Euro and its ensembles dropped all development with 98L, but when I see 98L this morning getting better organized than what it was 24 hrs ago I have no option but to dismiss the Euro.
Clearly the western vorticity is taking over and the vorticity that was to its east is weakening as it started rotating around the larger gyre of the monsoon trough.

https://i.imgur.com/vQhAdnY.gif

Is it possible the euro initialized on the dissipating low to the east?

Is initialized well, but it does show the eastern vorticity taking over as it rotates westward and the western vorticity dying out later today, we will see if it is right, but doubtful.

[eastcoastFL]

you mean this one that is lifting out and opening the door for a good outflow channel ?

https://i.ibb.co/1XwgTy5/3.gif

https://i.ibb.co/b5hgW3g/goes16-wv-mid-atl.gif

Yes, doesn’t seem to be lifting out at the moment, if anything it’s strengthening, unless my sleepy eyes are getting it mixed up.

your eyes are sleepy

check the first and last positions..

say bye bye to mr tutt

http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/a ... _loop.html

It’s as if Mr. TUTT is just a gentleman opening the door for 98l

[eastcoastFL]

Mind blowing that the Euro and its ensembles dropped all development with 98L, but when I see 98L this morning getting better organized than what it was 24 hrs ago I have no option but to dismiss the Euro.
Clearly the western vorticity is taking over and the vorticity that was to its east is weakening as it started rotating around the larger gyre of the monsoon trough.

https://i.imgur.com/vQhAdnY.gif

Is it possible the euro initialized on the dissipating low to the east?

Is initialized well, but it does show the eastern vorticity taking over as it rotates westward and the western vorticity dying out later today, we will see if it is right, but doubtful.

https://i.imgur.com/PmG24xZ.gif

That maybe it’s main flaw with the last run. If that doesn’t play out I’d expect a big change in the next run

[HuracanMaster]

Yes, doesn’t seem to be lifting out at the moment, if anything it’s strengthening, unless my sleepy eyes are getting it mixed up.

your eyes are sleepy

check the first and last positions..

say bye bye to mr tutt

http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/a ... _loop.html

It’s as if Mr. TUTT is just a gentleman opening the door for 98l

Touchė

Sent from my SM-G975U using Tapatalk

[eastcoastFL]

98l is taking a beating over DR in the HWRF

[Aric Dunn]

your eyes are sleepy

check the first and last positions..

say bye bye to mr tutt

http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/a ... _loop.html

It’s as if Mr. TUTT is just a gentleman opening the door for 98l

Touchė

Sent from my SM-G975U using Tapatalk

This shows the progress of the TUTT over the last 12 + hours...

[eastcoastFL]

It’s as if Mr. TUTT is just a gentleman opening the door for 98l

Touchė

Sent from my SM-G975U using Tapatalk

This shows the progress of the TUTT over the last 12 + hours...

https://i.ibb.co/b11Xkz6/goes16-wv-mid-atl-2.gif

Ya, it’s already pulling north in that graphic. Scratch that off the savior list...

[SFLcane]

https://twitter.com/andyhazelton/status ... 78529?s=21

The upper pattern in the Bahamas looks nuclear to me. It's just a huge question of whether there's a TC there to take advantage.

[NDG]

With all models showing the TUTT to keep retrograding northward on their short forecast it is no doubt that it will get out of 98L's way.

[Shell Mound]

:eek:

https://twitter.com/andyhazelton/status ... 78529?s=21

The upper pattern in the Bahamas looks nuclear to me. It's just a huge question of whether there's a TC there to take advantage.

 https://twitter.com/JackSillin/status/1296053067763331073




On genesis:

 https://twitter.com/AndyHazelton/status/1296035797641105408



 https://twitter.com/AndyHazelton/status/1296037669328302081



 https://twitter.com/JackSillin/status/1296050876075909126



 https://twitter.com/JackSillin/status/1296038464639709187




Bottom line: a very high ceiling exists for 98L, so long as it avoids the Greater Antilles.

[NDG]

It will be historic if 98L does not develop over the next day or so, going against MV's theory.

 https://twitter.com/MJVentrice/status/1296049035397275648

[HuracanMaster]

Track guidance shifting west, greater antilles, northern leewards in play.https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20200819/aaeb988d46630cc9ee79f27e69c8f859.jpg

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Yep for sure, hopefully the 06Z HWRF is not correct with strong hurricane into this area...

I hope not. It’s at 84 hrs with a 965mb cane about to swallow PR

Oh boy...

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[SFLcane]

After looking at the euro more closely it has captured this evolution well East side poofs, west side fires for a bit then poofs.

Clout tops are warming as we speak.

[cycloneye]

An elongated area of low pressure, located a little over 1000 miles
east of the Windward Islands continues to produce a concentrated
area of showers and thunderstorms mainly on the west side of the
disturbance. Environmental conditions are conducive for further
development, and a tropical depression is expected to form during
the next day or two while the system moves generally
west-northwestward at 15 to 20 mph across the central and western
portions of the tropical Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.

[Blown Away]

DATE/TIME LAT LON CLASSIFICATION STORM
19/1130 UTC 11.5N 44.6W T1.5/1.5 98L
19/0530 UTC 11.6N 43.4W T1.5/1.5 98L
18/2330 UTC 11.7N 42.3W T1.0/1.0 98L
18/1730 UTC 11.8N 42.0W T1.0/1.0 98L

T Values going up... I's place the circulation center closer to 12.0N...