ATL: MARCO - Models

[Cpv17]

I wonder why the ICON starts weakening it rapidly as it nears Galveston. Is 98 shearing it apart?

[NDG]

06z HWRF very aggressive with 97L.

https://i.imgur.com/mAVxYv2.png

high pressure will be strong, 97L isn't making it that far east.

Maybe not that far east but a threat to at least the NW gulf coast is not out of the question with the Bermuda ridge to the east and not to the north of 97L.

[NDG]

I wonder why the ICON starts weakening it rapidly as it nears Galveston. Is 98 shearing it apart?

Yes, 98L's outflow takes over.

[Cpv17]

I’m beginning to think Mexico could be out of the picture and it’s looking more likely this will be a problem for anyone between Brownsville to NOLA.

[Steve]

ICON 156 hours


GFS - NADA


I'll try to get up the CMC and HMON/HWRF as they run.

[Steve]

CMC again likes the washout idea around Brownsville. But it does show 1002mb which is certainly tropical storm level in the next plot at 138 hours (see second frame)


138 Hours

[stormlover2013]

models still drunk

[Steve]

models still drunk

LOL. It's that fake liquor down in the Yucatan. So we are basically looking at a west Gulf tropical storm type system per the ICON and CMC. GFS doesn't have much but some remnant rain and convection.

HMON and HWRF are running now. They only go out until 126 hours each. There can be no US landfall in that short period of time. So for their runs, the islands, Central America and the state of Quintana Roo are the main land areas that could be impacted.

[SoupBone]

models still drunk

LOL. It's that fake liquor down in the Yucatan. So we are basically looking at a west Gulf tropical storm type system per the ICON and CMC. GFS doesn't have much but some remnant rain and convection.

HMON and HWRF are running now. They only go out until 126 hours each. There can be no US landfall in that short period of time. So for their runs, the islands, Central America and the state of Quintana Roo are the main land areas that could be impacted.

Our pro's still forecast a Northern Mexico/Extreme South Texas potential fwiw. I'm curious to see their next forecast, especially considering models being all over the place. This one is not an easy forecast.

[Snowman67]

Here's 120 hours

https://i.imgur.com/TuFmf7c.png

Thanks Steve. Certainly hope that doesn't verify. Brings back bad memories of Ike...

[jasons2k]

It’s getting awfully chit-chatty in here. Let’s keep the discussion and meteorology to the discussion thread and leave this one for model output or discussion related a specific model or suite that’s posted. Thanks.

[stormlover2013]

models still drunk

LOL. It's that fake liquor down in the Yucatan. So we are basically looking at a west Gulf tropical storm type system per the ICON and CMC. GFS doesn't have much but some remnant rain and convection.

HMON and HWRF are running now. They only go out until 126 hours each. There can be no US landfall in that short period of time. So for their runs, the islands, Central America and the state of Quintana Roo are the main land areas that could be impacted.

Our pro's still forecast a Northern Mexico/Extreme South Texas potential fwiw. I'm curious to see their next forecast, especially considering models being all over the place. This one is not an easy forecast.

Because they are euro people

[SoupBone]

LOL. It's that fake liquor down in the Yucatan. So we are basically looking at a west Gulf tropical storm type system per the ICON and CMC. GFS doesn't have much but some remnant rain and convection.

HMON and HWRF are running now. They only go out until 126 hours each. There can be no US landfall in that short period of time. So for their runs, the islands, Central America and the state of Quintana Roo are the main land areas that could be impacted.

Our pro's still forecast a Northern Mexico/Extreme South Texas potential fwiw. I'm curious to see their next forecast, especially considering models being all over the place. This one is not an easy forecast.

Because they are euro people

The CMC also shows a Tex/Mex soltuion as well for 97L.

[stormlover2013]

Our pro's still forecast a Northern Mexico/Extreme South Texas potential fwiw. I'm curious to see their next forecast, especially considering models being all over the place. This one is not an easy forecast.

Because they are euro people

The CMC also shows a Tex/Mex soltuion as well for 97L.

Lol it’s the cmc, it had Texas a day ago

[Steve]

HWRF

[SoupBone]

https://i.imgur.com/BZ6YCzU.png

HWRF

I'm really having a tough time with the absolutely huge variety of solutions the models are still putting out. The HWRF is showing landfall in 5 days on the 24th. Unreal.

[Steve]

HMON

[Steve]

https://i.imgur.com/BZ6YCzU.png

HWRF

I'm really having a tough time with the absolutely huge variety of solutions the models are still putting out. The HWRF is showing landfall in 5 days on the 24th. Unreal.

Agreed. I don't believe the HWRF as that's a pretty crazy solution compared to just about everything else. As you can see with the HMON, it's still on the Yucatan in 5 days which is much more in line with reality. I'm not saying the HWRF isn't possible as the model obviously thinks it is. But it seems kind of unlikely in that timeframe to me.

[Cpv17]

https://i.imgur.com/BZ6YCzU.png

HWRF

I'm really having a tough time with the absolutely huge variety of solutions the models are still putting out. The HWRF is showing landfall in 5 days on the 24th. Unreal.

Agreed. I don't believe the HWRF as that's a pretty crazy solution compared to just about everything else. As you can see with the HMON, it's still on the Yucatan in 5 days which is much more in line with reality. I'm not saying the HWRF isn't possible as the model obviously thinks it is. But it seems kind of unlikely in that timeframe to me.

I think the longer it camps out near the Yucatan, the less likely it’ll be to feel the weakness to its north because high pressure is expected to build in over the eastern Gulf and at the same time there will be a weakness that should be moving south or west over the southern half of Texas pulling it that direction. You can see this in the latest 12z Euro pretty well.

[captainbarbossa19]

The 12z model run of the Euro looks eerily similar to the tracks of Carla and Harvey. The only difference is that the Euro shows it being super weak. I am not buying that yet.