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eastcoastFL wrote:Icon still heading north of the islands. I guess it’s up in the air until we get a good center fix. When would the first recon flight be? Tomorrow sometime?
wxman57 wrote:SFLcane wrote:wxman57 wrote:My track yesterday had it crossing the islands of the NE Caribbean Fri PM/Sat AM then moving along the coasts of the DR & Cuba Sun/Mon, possibly as a weak TS interacting with land or a depression. It may be moving fast enough there to produce 40 mph winds on the north side. The environment won't be THAT favorable for strengthening over the next 5 days. I had it in the east-central Gulf Tuesday morning as a 40 kt TS yesterday. Today's track is similar, but advances the center to near the AL/FL border Wednesday afternoon as a 55 kt TS. Why 55 kts? Just a guess this far out. Somewhere between an open wave and a Cat 2 hurricane. Don't want to cause too much alarm 7 days out for Gulf Coast clients.
I like how some of the models (UKMET, CMC, ICON) have two storms in the Gulf at the same time next Mon/Tue. That would be fun - NOT! Oh well, it is 2020, what else could go wrong?
Seems like a non issue for SFL per this post.
I wouldn't make that conclusion just yet. A track away from the DR & Cuba could lead to strong TS winds in South Florida. Can't rule out a hurricane, but I don't think a hurricane would be likely in the FL straits.
wxman57 wrote:SFLcane wrote:wxman57 wrote:My track yesterday had it crossing the islands of the NE Caribbean Fri PM/Sat AM then moving along the coasts of the DR & Cuba Sun/Mon, possibly as a weak TS interacting with land or a depression. It may be moving fast enough there to produce 40 mph winds on the north side. The environment won't be THAT favorable for strengthening over the next 5 days. I had it in the east-central Gulf Tuesday morning as a 40 kt TS yesterday. Today's track is similar, but advances the center to near the AL/FL border Wednesday afternoon as a 55 kt TS. Why 55 kts? Just a guess this far out. Somewhere between an open wave and a Cat 2 hurricane. Don't want to cause too much alarm 7 days out for Gulf Coast clients.
I like how some of the models (UKMET, CMC, ICON) have two storms in the Gulf at the same time next Mon/Tue. That would be fun - NOT! Oh well, it is 2020, what else could go wrong?
Seems like a non issue for SFL per this post.
I wouldn't make that conclusion just yet. A track away from the DR & Cuba could lead to strong TS winds in South Florida. Can't rule out a hurricane, but I don't think a hurricane would be likely in the FL straits.
plasticup wrote:
Looks closed to me.
cheezyWXguy wrote:wxman57 wrote:What impediments do you see to intensification besides land interaction that would reduce the likelihood of something like the ICON is depicting?
DestinHurricane wrote:Here's my unprofessional guess. https://i.imgur.com/qPiStpz.pngThe posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the NHC and NWS.
wxman57 wrote:cheezyWXguy wrote:wxman57 wrote:What impediments do you see to intensification besides land interaction that would reduce the likelihood of something like the ICON is depicting?
Dry air and at least some wind shear, though not as bad as with Josephine. I don't think the ICON model is handling the environment near the storm well. I've never found it to do a very good job with tropical cyclones.
As a side note, I'm expecting the NHC to initiate PTC advisories this afternoon (could be a depression then). Still looks much better than TS Josephine last weekend, but no ASCAT to conform well-defined LLC. I've seen what looked clearly like a TS in the Caribbean on satellite with recon unable to close off a circulation.
wxman57 wrote:As a side note, I'm expecting the NHC to initiate PTC advisories this afternoon (could be a depression then). Still looks much better than TS Josephine last weekend, but no ASCAT to conform well-defined LLC. I've seen what looked clearly like a TS in the Caribbean on satellite with recon unable to close off a circulation.
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