ATL: LAURA - Models

[SFLcane]

icon florida straights into gom at 150 hours

12z not out that far.

[wxman57]

To get an idea what the NHC's track would look like if they issued one today, I plotted only the consensus model (TVCN/TVCA). Trend has been for greater interaction with the DR & Cuba since yesterday.

[Cataegis96]

12z Icon weaker and south. Agree that more interaction with the islands is the trend this morning, but much can still change. Strong ridge to its north hour 120 though should push this into the Gulf.

[stormlover2013]

icon florida straights into gom at 150 hours

12z not out that far.

i use weatherbell

[stormlover2013]

headed towards flo pan at 180

[DestinHurricane]

ICON over the keys and into the Gulf. Looks like it's headed for Panama City at the end of the run as a cat 3.

[sma10]

Question for the Mets: at 5 days, ICON puts a hurricane in the central gulf and strengthening storm in the SW bahamas, with Florida sandwiched comfortably in between. In this scenario, would Florida be relatively calm winds or would it be howling?

[Blown Away]

12z GFS 60Hrs... Slightly NW of 06z

[FLpanhandle91]

12z is GFS a touch north through 72 hours. So far it looks like it'll miss the islands for the most part.

[Spacecoast]

To get an idea what the NHC's track would look like if they issued one today, I plotted only the consensus model (TVCN/TVCA). Trend has been for greater interaction with the DR & Cuba since yesterday.

http://wxman57.com/images/consensus.JPG

Using that TVCN, I am trying to envision what the 5-day NHC cone would look like.

Can anyone estimate how far up the coast would the 5-day cone go?

Would the 5-day cone still cover most of S.Fl, as well as Central FL (Tampa, Orlando)?

[Extratropical94]

Question for the Mets: at 5 days, ICON puts a hurricane in the central gulf and strengthening storm in the SW bahamas, with Florida sandwiched comfortably in between. In this scenario, would Florida be relatively calm winds or would it be howling?

Light easterlies across Florida, 10-20 mph probably. However, the winds would pick up significantly in SFL soon after 120h as 98L approaches the Keys

[Lance]

To get an idea what the NHC's track would look like if they issued one today, I plotted only the consensus model (TVCN/TVCA). Trend has been for greater interaction with the DR & Cuba since yesterday.

http://wxman57.com/images/consensus.JPG

That would kill it right there right? Over all the mountains would not bode well.

[Blown Away]

12z GFS... 96Hrs... Hugging the N coast of Hispaniola, @40 mile N shift from 06z... This is the point when GFS strengthened in previous runs if it moves off the coast...

[Cataegis96]

12z GFS... 96Hrs... Hugging the N coast of Hispaniola, @40 mile N shift from 06z... This is the point when GFS strengthened in previous runs if it moves off the coast...

Looks like it wants to keep it south through Cuba. Ridge even stronger this run.

[DestinHurricane]

Just remember that models frequently overdo ridging.

[NDG]

Gulf bound, whatever survives its track right through the Greater Antilles, as the GFS just like the Euro continues trending towards a strong Bermuda Ridge developing.

[Blown Away]

12z GFS... 96Hrs... Hugging the N coast of Hispaniola, @40 mile N shift from 06z... This is the point when GFS strengthened in previous runs if it moves off the coast...

Looks like it wants to keep it south through Cuba. Ridge even stronger this run.

12z GFS... 126Hrs... @50-70 miles N of 06z... Appears HP retreating more than previous runs, I bet we see a number of ensembles E of FL... JMHO

[wxman57]

To get an idea what the NHC's track would look like if they issued one today, I plotted only the consensus model (TVCN/TVCA). Trend has been for greater interaction with the DR & Cuba since yesterday.

http://wxman57.com/images/consensus.JPG

Using that TVCN, I am trying to envision what the 5-day NHC cone would look like.

Can anyone estimate how far up the coast would the 5-day cone go?

Would the 5-day cone still cover most of S.Fl, as well as Central FL (Tampa, Orlando)?

Ignore the cone, it's meaningless as far as possible impacts or track uncertainty with THIS system. Take the discussion to the discussion thread, pla.

[Javlin]

Just remember that models frequently overdo ridging.

Some models and the ridging seems to the one thing almost all are agreeing on.Something is coming we just don't know the intensity of it/them as of yet.

[DestinHurricane]

Don't hug any one track right now. Models will shift one way and come back the other. Anyone from the Gulf to NC needs to be watching.