ATL: LAURA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

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Re: ATL: INVEST 98L - Discussion

#501 Postby eastcoastFL » Wed Aug 19, 2020 12:27 pm

It’s getting that S shape curvature
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Re: ATL: INVEST 98L - Discussion

#502 Postby TallyTracker » Wed Aug 19, 2020 12:28 pm

eastcoastFL wrote:
captainbarbossa19 wrote:This is interesting. I hope this turns out not to be a good analog.

1900 Galveston Hurricane Track:

https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/1/12/1900_Galveston_hurricane_track.png


Was that a cat 3?


Cat 4 with about 145 mph estimated winds.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 98L - Discussion

#503 Postby eastcoastFL » Wed Aug 19, 2020 12:30 pm

Anticyclone still in place

Image
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Re: ATL: INVEST 98L - Discussion

#504 Postby Gums » Wed Aug 19, 2020 12:34 pm

Salute!

Don't forget the Rita and Katrina and Ike tracks for soon-to-be Laura.

Gums sends...
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Re: ATL: INVEST 98L - Discussion

#505 Postby cycloneye » Wed Aug 19, 2020 12:47 pm

An elongated area of low pressure, located about 1000 miles east of
the Windward Islands continues to produce a concentrated area of
showers and thunderstorms. Although recent satellite-derived wind
data indicates that the low is not well-defined, environmental
conditions are conducive for further development, and a tropical
depression is expected to form during the next day or two while the
system moves generally west-northwestward at 15 to 20 mph across the
central and western portions of the tropical Atlantic. Interests
in the Lesser Antilles should monitor the progress of this system.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 98L - Discussion

#506 Postby chaser1 » Wed Aug 19, 2020 12:48 pm

Looks to me like a MLC with a questionably attendant LLC may be located at around 12N & 45.5W. New convection popping to the north is quickly pulling NW but there's little evidence that this is close to being vertically stacked yet. Without evidence to the contrary, I'd need to see a CDO or banding features before jumping this to any TD status. Of course this would imply a bit more of a westward motion for at least another day or so.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 98L - Discussion

#507 Postby SFLcane » Wed Aug 19, 2020 12:49 pm

No upgrade today it looks like.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 98L - Discussion

#508 Postby SFLcane » Wed Aug 19, 2020 12:53 pm

We shall see if wxman 57's call for a PTC today comes to pass. Still disorganized per nhc.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 98L - Discussion

#509 Postby eastcoastFL » Wed Aug 19, 2020 12:55 pm

chaser1 wrote:Looks to me like a MLC with a questionably attendant LLC may be located at around 12N & 45.5W. New convection popping to the north is quickly pulling NW but there's little evidence that this is close to being vertically stacked yet. Without evidence to the contrary, I'd need to see a CDO or banding features before jumping this to any TD status. Of course this would imply a bit more of a westward motion for at least another day or so.


Yup. Circulation still seems kinda broad possibly extending even a little south of 12n. Slowly but surely it’s progressing
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Re: ATL: INVEST 98L - Discussion

#510 Postby eastcoastFL » Wed Aug 19, 2020 12:55 pm

Almost euro time. Let’s see if it changes it’s mind. Nhc maybe waiting for this run to make a decision on ptc at 5pm
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Re: ATL: INVEST 98L - Discussion

#511 Postby DestinHurricane » Wed Aug 19, 2020 12:56 pm

Not always but usually when NHC has 90/90 in the morning it will get an upgrade or PTC later that afternoon. We'll see if that holds true this time.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 98L - Discussion

#512 Postby supercane4867 » Wed Aug 19, 2020 12:59 pm

TCFA issued.

Image

Image
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Re: ATL: INVEST 98L - Discussion

#513 Postby wxman57 » Wed Aug 19, 2020 1:08 pm

DestinHurricane wrote:Not always but usually when NHC has 90/90 in the morning it will get an upgrade or PTC later that afternoon. We'll see if that holds true this time.


NHC has the criterion that they start PTC advisories if the likely storm is within 48 hrs of impacting land. In this case, it's about 50 hrs out by 4pm AST. They can start them at 4pm or wait until later when it's well within 48 hrs, possibly needing a warning shortly after. Like I said, they don't like to initiate advisories with new watches at 10pm when most people have gone to sleep. They'd rather do it a little early.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 98L - Discussion

#514 Postby SFLcane » Wed Aug 19, 2020 1:11 pm

wxman57 wrote:
DestinHurricane wrote:Not always but usually when NHC has 90/90 in the morning it will get an upgrade or PTC later that afternoon. We'll see if that holds true this time.


NHC has the criterion that they start PTC advisories if the likely storm is within 48 hrs of impacting land. In this case, it's about 50 hrs out by 4pm AST. They can start them at 4pm or wait until later when it's well within 48 hrs, possibly needing a warning shortly after. Like I said, they don't like to initiate advisories with new watches at 10pm when most people have gone to sleep. They'd rather do it a little early.


So your saying by 5pm today? They might very well wait.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 98L - Discussion

#515 Postby Kazmit » Wed Aug 19, 2020 1:13 pm

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Re: ATL: INVEST 98L - Discussion

#516 Postby Aric Dunn » Wed Aug 19, 2020 1:25 pm

And here we go. Southerly flow on the east side has begun to increase quite steadily. low level cloud lines are more distinct in all quads.

the flux of sloutherly flow should help ignite some deep convection here shortly and bring all of this together.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 98L - Discussion

#517 Postby Shell Mound » Wed Aug 19, 2020 1:27 pm

We may be fortunate in the end. The ridge on the 12Z GFS and ECMWF runs is much weaker and farther east on days three through seven, with a trend toward a stronger, west-based -NAO and northwesterly flow over the Northeastern U.S. Since 98L, like Hanna, is clearly strengthening much faster than the global models indicated, it could not only end up missing the Leeward Islands and Puerto Rico to the north, but also curve OTS between the U.S. East Coast and Bermuda after brushing the Turks and Caicos Islands. Those islands will prove to be a key benchmark. In any case, don’t become complacent if 98L ends up curving OTS as a strong hurricane, because that’s what climatology usually favours, and hyperactive seasons usually feature weaker ridges, hence fewer TUTTs, reduced VWS, and lower MSLP in the deep tropics. I really hope this ends up as a fish and generates tremendous ACE. I suspect models will trend stronger and farther NE with 98L.
Last edited by Shell Mound on Wed Aug 19, 2020 1:31 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 98L - Discussion

#518 Postby eastcoastFL » Wed Aug 19, 2020 1:30 pm

The models are all over the place. From nothing at all forming to a Cat 3 hitting Miami on Monday or a cane in the gulf...
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Re: ATL: INVEST 98L - Discussion

#519 Postby eastcoastFL » Wed Aug 19, 2020 1:31 pm

Shell Mound wrote:We may be fortunate in the end. The ridge on the 12Z GFS and ECMWF runs is much weaker and farther east on days three through seven, with a trend toward a stronger, west-based -NAO and northwesterly flow over the Northeastern U.S. Since 98L, like Hanna, is clearly strengthening much faster than the global models indicated, it could not only end up missing the Leeward Islands and Puerto Rico to the north, but also curve OTS between the U.S. East Coast and Bermuda after brushing the Turks and Caicos Islands. Those islands will prove to be a key benchmark. In any case, don’t be complacent if 98L ends up curving OTS as a strong hurricane, because that’s what climatology usually favours, and hyperactive seasons usually feature weaker ridges, hence fewer TUTTs, reduced VWS, and lower MSLP in the deep tropics. I really hope this ends up as a fish and generates tremendous ACE. I suspect models will trend stronger and farther NE with 98L.



I saw that too. They develop the one behind this one and send it right out to sea. That’s good news
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Re: ATL: INVEST 98L - Discussion

#520 Postby AviationWatcher » Wed Aug 19, 2020 1:37 pm

eastcoastFL wrote:The models are all over the place. From nothing at all forming to a Cat 3 hitting Miami on Monday or a cane in the gulf...


Im new to the forums. Is it irregular to have a lot of variations in the models this far out?
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