ATL: LAURA - Models

[gatorcane]

Call me confused but I just don't see why the Euro wouldn't spin this up if it avoids the big islands. What does it see that we aren't seeing. Maybe dry air. I don't know.

My guess is too much dry and stable air around it. Isaias had the same problem in the Bahamas if you recall. I am just looking at the GFS graphics to take that guess since we don’t have access to the same Euro charts.

https://i.postimg.cc/1XPKpn62/gfs-mid-RH-watl-17.png

RH not a problem on the Euro in the Bahamas.

Maybe the Euro (and the GFS) are moving it too quickly then so it can’t really consolidate

[Shell Mound]

Call me confused but I just don't see why the Euro wouldn't spin this up if it avoids the big islands. What does it see that we aren't seeing. Maybe dry air. I don't know.

My guess is too much dry and stable air around it. Isaias had the same problem in the Bahamas if you recall. I am just looking at the GFS graphics to take that guess since we don’t have access to the same Euro charts.

https://i.postimg.cc/1XPKpn62/gfs-mid-RH-watl-17.png

RH not a problem on the Euro in the Bahamas.

I’ll be aghast if 98L ends up hitting the Bahamas as a powerful hurricane, even if it misses all other land masses. Those islands need a break after Dorian.

[caneseddy]

From Derek earlier this morning. Discounting the GFS and Euro (mind you this was before 12z)

 https://twitter.com/DerekOrtt/status/1296045766952333313




 https://twitter.com/DerekOrtt/status/1296085630598942720

[toad strangler]

Call me confused but I just don't see why the Euro wouldn't spin this up if it avoids the big islands. What does it see that we aren't seeing. Maybe dry air. I don't know.

Tried to ignite this go around but it might be moving too fast? I dunno

[caneseddy]

 https://twitter.com/AndyHazelton/status/1296149815592706048




 https://twitter.com/AndyHazelton/status/1296150500895752194

[caneseddy]

Call me confused but I just don't see why the Euro wouldn't spin this up if it avoids the big islands. What does it see that we aren't seeing. Maybe dry air. I don't know.

Tried to ignite this go around but it might be moving too fast? I dunno

 https://twitter.com/MikeFischerWx/status/1296152323408961538

[eastcoastFL]

The lack of data not just from planes but cruise ships too is really putting a wrench in things for these models

[aspen]

I’ve seen some people talk about the favorable UL environment near the Bahamas when 98L is expected to arrive, but that’s only part of the story. Look at how insane the SSTs are in the region — up to 31C! No wonder why the HWRF has been trying to get a major out of this as it approaches Florida.

[Nuno]

The lack of data not just from planes but cruise ships too is really putting a wrench in things for these models

I see this in every thread mentioned, is this really the prime factor for such model inconsistency? Flights are still happening, it isn't as if the world's fleet is grounded.

[chris_fit]

12Z GFS Ens

[jlauderdal]

I’ve seen some people talk about the favorable UL environment near the Bahamas when 98L is expected to arrive, but that’s only part of the story. Look at how insane the SSTs are in the region — up to 31C! No wonder why the HWRF has been trying to get a major out of this as it approaches Florida.

the hwrf has been overcooking systems for years regardless of sst's...its occasionally correct and that is more about luck than actual skil

[sma10]

Call me confused but I just don't see why the Euro wouldn't spin this up if it avoids the big islands. What does it see that we aren't seeing. Maybe dry air. I don't know.

My guess is too much dry and stable air around it. Isaias had the same problem in the Bahamas if you recall. I am just looking at the GFS graphics to take that guess since we don’t have access to the same Euro charts.

https://i.postimg.cc/1XPKpn62/gfs-mid-RH-watl-17.png

I agree gator, to a degree. The big difference is that ALL models signaled Isaias dry air problem in the Bahamas. This time, there is disagreement

[TheDreamTraveler]

The lack of data not just from planes but cruise ships too is really putting a wrench in things for these models

Gfs has been absolutely atrocious since the beginning of the year on not just the tropics but everything. Really surprised how bad the ecmwf has been with tropical systems too. The gfs problems were before the pandemic too so it doesn't surprise me how bad it's performing lol this is why I tried to tell people you can't just look at individual model runs especially with how hard it is to forecast this particular system.

[Stormcenter]

I’ll just stick with the NHC, obviously they are not buying
what some of major models are spitting out. We definitely
don’t have any consensus.

[lsuhurricane]

Definite uptick in Euro Ensembles development near the northern Antilles.

[AutoPenalti]

Euro most likely struggling with consolidation in the near term.

[Steejo91]

I’ve seen some people talk about the favorable UL environment near the Bahamas when 98L is expected to arrive, but that’s only part of the story. Look at how insane the SSTs are in the region — up to 31C! No wonder why the HWRF has been trying to get a major out of this as it approaches Florida.

the hwrf has been overcooking systems for years regardless of sst's...its occasionally correct and that is more about luck than actual skil

Although I believe there is some accuracy to the statement "More Luck than Skill", but to some degree the HWRF is a good model to use when conditions are optimal for RI. Not saying that is the case here, because it tends to always overdo the amount of deepening.

But down the road, my main concern is certainly the forward speed of 98L. Making it to the U.S mainland by Monday? Hard to fathom we will get a well organized CoC at that kind of forward speed.

[cp79]

Euro is making me breathe a little easier this afternoon.

[South Texas Storms]

Euro Ensemble members are more bullish on this with the 12z run.

[chris_fit]

any graphics for the 12Z EURO ENS?