ATL: LAURA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

Moderator: S2k Moderators

Message
Author
craptacular
Category 2
Category 2
Posts: 581
Joined: Wed Aug 02, 2006 9:17 pm
Location: The Mad City, WI

Re: ATL: INVEST 98L - Discussion

#521 Postby craptacular » Wed Aug 19, 2020 1:39 pm

Recon will be busy in the Atlantic starting tomorrow afternoon / evening:

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. SUSPECT AREA (WESTERN CARIBBEAN)
FLIGHT ONE - TEAL 73 FLIGHT TWO - TEAL 71
A. 20/1900Z A. 21/1130Z
B. AFXXX 01EEA INVEST B. AFXXX 0214A CYCLONE
C. 20/1500Z C. 21/0800Z
D. 14.5N 80.0W D. 16.1N 84.0W
E. 20/1845Z TO 20/2200Z E. 21/1100Z TO 21/1430Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT F. SFC TO 10,000 FT

2. SUSPECT AREA (EAST OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS)
FLIGHT ONE - NOAA 43 FLIGHT TWO - NOAA 42
A. 21/0000Z A. 21/1200Z
B. NOAA3 01FFA AL98 B. NOAA2 0213A CYCLONE
C. 20/2000Z C. 21/0830Z
D. 16.0N 54.0W D. 17.5N 58.0W
E. 20/2200Z TO 21/0230Z E. 21/0930Z TO 21/1530Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT F. SFC TO 10,000 FT

3. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY:
A. CONTINUE 12-HRLY FIXES ON WESTERN CARIBBEAN SYSTEM IF IT
DEVELOPS AND REMAINS A THREAT.
B. TWO MORE POSSIBLE NOAA P-3 TDR MISSIONS INTO THE CENTRAL
ATLANTIC SYSTEM, DEPARTING TISX TENTATIVELY AT
21/2100Z AND 22/0900Z.
2 likes   

User avatar
SFLcane
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 10163
Age: 47
Joined: Sat Jun 05, 2010 1:44 pm
Location: Lake Worth Florida

Re: ATL: INVEST 98L - Discussion

#522 Postby SFLcane » Wed Aug 19, 2020 1:45 pm

Wow a curved band near the center before DMIN?

Image
6 likes   

Aric Dunn
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 21238
Age: 42
Joined: Sun Sep 19, 2004 9:58 pm
Location: Ready for the Chase.
Contact:

Re: ATL: INVEST 98L - Discussion

#523 Postby Aric Dunn » Wed Aug 19, 2020 1:47 pm

it might very well get upgraded at with the current trends..
7 likes   
Note: If I make a post that is brief. Please refer back to previous posts for the analysis or reasoning. I do not re-write/qoute what my initial post said each time.
If there is nothing before... then just ask :)

Space & Atmospheric Physicist, Embry-Riddle Aeronautical University,
I believe the sky is falling...

User avatar
DestinHurricane
Category 4
Category 4
Posts: 935
Joined: Tue May 01, 2018 8:05 am
Location: New York, NY

Re: ATL: INVEST 98L - Discussion

#524 Postby DestinHurricane » Wed Aug 19, 2020 1:48 pm

I don't think I can remember a storm in recent history that has had so many mixed signals. Euro says nada. NHC says 90/90. HMON says major into Miami.
9 likes   
Michael 2018

User avatar
eastcoastFL
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 3901
Age: 43
Joined: Thu Apr 12, 2007 12:29 pm
Location: Palm City, FL

Re: ATL: INVEST 98L - Discussion

#525 Postby eastcoastFL » Wed Aug 19, 2020 1:49 pm

AviationWatcher wrote:
eastcoastFL wrote:The models are all over the place. From nothing at all forming to a Cat 3 hitting Miami on Monday or a cane in the gulf...


Im new to the forums. Is it irregular to have a lot of variations in the models this far out?


It’s normal to have variations. But the GFS and Euro just don’t make sense right now. They’re clearly missing something at the moment. We have the nhc at 90% for formation and the euro has nothing at all.
0 likes   
Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

User avatar
tiger_deF
Category 1
Category 1
Posts: 468
Age: 24
Joined: Tue Sep 27, 2016 11:47 am

Re: ATL: INVEST 98L - Discussion

#526 Postby tiger_deF » Wed Aug 19, 2020 1:50 pm

DestinHurricane wrote:I don't think I can remember a storm in recent history that has had so many mixed signals. Euro says nada. NHC says 90/90. HMON says major into Miami.

Absolutely, I honestly doubted that the models had gotten less accurate due to less passenger flights but everything so far has pointed to that conclusion
2 likes   

User avatar
DestinHurricane
Category 4
Category 4
Posts: 935
Joined: Tue May 01, 2018 8:05 am
Location: New York, NY

Re: ATL: INVEST 98L - Discussion

#527 Postby DestinHurricane » Wed Aug 19, 2020 1:50 pm

eastcoastFL wrote:
AviationWatcher wrote:
eastcoastFL wrote:The models are all over the place. From nothing at all forming to a Cat 3 hitting Miami on Monday or a cane in the gulf...


Im new to the forums. Is it irregular to have a lot of variations in the models this far out?


It’s normal to have variations. But the GFS and Euro just don’t make sense right now. They’re clearly missing something at the moment. We have the nhc at 90% for formation and the euro has nothing at all.


Either the GFS/Euro are missing something or the other models are missing something. We don't know who will be correct right now.
5 likes   
Michael 2018

AxaltaRacing24
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 1753
Age: 25
Joined: Wed Jul 27, 2016 11:14 am
Location: Jupiter, FL

Re: ATL: INVEST 98L - Discussion

#528 Postby AxaltaRacing24 » Wed Aug 19, 2020 1:50 pm

DestinHurricane wrote:I don't think I can remember a storm in recent history that has had so many mixed signals. Euro says nada. NHC says 90/90. HMON says major into Miami.

the euro has usually struggled with genesis, but with the gfs not showing any genesis this season, it is a headache to know if a storm will form or not.

in this case, if there’s any additional organization tonight, the gfs and euro would already be wrong.
0 likes   

BobHarlem
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 2110
Joined: Thu Oct 20, 2005 6:11 pm

Re: ATL: INVEST 98L - Discussion

#529 Postby BobHarlem » Wed Aug 19, 2020 1:51 pm

AviationWatcher wrote:
eastcoastFL wrote:The models are all over the place. From nothing at all forming to a Cat 3 hitting Miami on Monday or a cane in the gulf...


Im new to the forums. Is it irregular to have a lot of variations in the models this far out?


It's typical to have variations, especially before a storm has formed, but what's unusual here is how wide a range the variations are. GFS/Euro virtual nothing vs NHC's 90%, vs other models making landfall or intensifying, etc.
0 likes   

User avatar
DestinHurricane
Category 4
Category 4
Posts: 935
Joined: Tue May 01, 2018 8:05 am
Location: New York, NY

Re: ATL: INVEST 98L - Discussion

#530 Postby DestinHurricane » Wed Aug 19, 2020 1:51 pm

tiger_deF wrote:
DestinHurricane wrote:I don't think I can remember a storm in recent history that has had so many mixed signals. Euro says nada. NHC says 90/90. HMON says major into Miami.

Absolutely, I honestly doubted that the models had gotten less accurate due to less passenger flights but everything so far has pointed to that conclusion


Lack of ships could be another possibility but there's still plenty of cargo ships.
0 likes   
Michael 2018

User avatar
Hypercane_Kyle
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 3352
Joined: Sat Mar 07, 2015 7:58 pm
Location: Cape Canaveral, FL

Re: ATL: INVEST 98L - Discussion

#531 Postby Hypercane_Kyle » Wed Aug 19, 2020 1:55 pm

Favorable CCKW, organizing convection, mid/late-August, relatively favorable environment ahead of it, solid kink in the ITCZ.

Yeah, I think there's a good case here to consider the possibility that the ECMWF/GFS are simply wrong. I don't see any reason why this shouldn't develop at all. I can see an argument that, due to proximity to the PV streamer to the north, as well as an increase in forward speed and dry air, 98L may struggle to generate consistent convection enroute to the islands before being clobbered by land interaction. But zero development whatsoever? No way. NHC must be thinking this too if they're bold enough to give it 90/90 probs.

Image
10 likes   
My posts are my own personal opinion, defer to the National Hurricane Center (NHC) and other NOAA products for decision making during hurricane season.

User avatar
Evil Jeremy
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 5463
Age: 32
Joined: Mon Apr 10, 2006 2:10 pm
Location: Los Angeles, CA

Re: ATL: INVEST 98L - Discussion

#532 Postby Evil Jeremy » Wed Aug 19, 2020 1:58 pm

I just don't get the sense PTC is in the cards today, going by the 2pm TWO.

92L/Pre-Isaias had two TWO's with this language before PTC was declared:

"Interests on these islands
should continue to monitor the progress of this system, and
tropical storm watches or warnings could be required for portions
of the area later today."

That first PTC advisory was issued when 92L reached 53.7W and was forecasted to be just about 24 hours away from the Lesser Antilles.

98L is currently sitting around 46W.
0 likes   
Frances 04 / Jeanne 04 / Katrina 05 / Wilma 05 / Fay 08 / Debby 12 / Andrea 13 / Colin 16 / Hermine 16 / Matthew 16 / Irma 17

User avatar
eastcoastFL
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 3901
Age: 43
Joined: Thu Apr 12, 2007 12:29 pm
Location: Palm City, FL

Re: ATL: INVEST 98L - Discussion

#533 Postby eastcoastFL » Wed Aug 19, 2020 2:00 pm

craptacular wrote:Recon will be busy in the Atlantic starting tomorrow afternoon / evening:

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. SUSPECT AREA (WESTERN CARIBBEAN)
FLIGHT ONE - TEAL 73 FLIGHT TWO - TEAL 71
A. 20/1900Z A. 21/1130Z
B. AFXXX 01EEA INVEST B. AFXXX 0214A CYCLONE
C. 20/1500Z C. 21/0800Z
D. 14.5N 80.0W D. 16.1N 84.0W
E. 20/1845Z TO 20/2200Z E. 21/1100Z TO 21/1430Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT F. SFC TO 10,000 FT

2. SUSPECT AREA (EAST OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS)
FLIGHT ONE - NOAA 43 FLIGHT TWO - NOAA 42
A. 21/0000Z A. 21/1200Z
B. NOAA3 01FFA AL98 B. NOAA2 0213A CYCLONE
C. 20/2000Z C. 21/0830Z
D. 16.0N 54.0W D. 17.5N 58.0W
E. 20/2200Z TO 21/0230Z E. 21/0930Z TO 21/1530Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT F. SFC TO 10,000 FT

3. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY:
A. CONTINUE 12-HRLY FIXES ON WESTERN CARIBBEAN SYSTEM IF IT
DEVELOPS AND REMAINS A THREAT.
B. TWO MORE POSSIBLE NOAA P-3 TDR MISSIONS INTO THE CENTRAL
ATLANTIC SYSTEM, DEPARTING TISX TENTATIVELY AT
21/2100Z AND 22/0900Z.


I never been so excited for recon. We really need them with this one
3 likes   
Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

User avatar
eastcoastFL
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 3901
Age: 43
Joined: Thu Apr 12, 2007 12:29 pm
Location: Palm City, FL

Re: ATL: INVEST 98L - Discussion

#534 Postby eastcoastFL » Wed Aug 19, 2020 2:02 pm

DestinHurricane wrote:
tiger_deF wrote:
DestinHurricane wrote:I don't think I can remember a storm in recent history that has had so many mixed signals. Euro says nada. NHC says 90/90. HMON says major into Miami.

Absolutely, I honestly doubted that the models had gotten less accurate due to less passenger flights but everything so far has pointed to that conclusion


Lack of ships could be another possibility but there's still plenty of cargo ships.


Almost no cruise ships has put a major dent in the data haul also. They’re a big contributor.
2 likes   
Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

psyclone
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 4762
Joined: Wed Aug 24, 2005 9:04 pm
Location: palm harbor fl

Re: ATL: INVEST 98L - Discussion

#535 Postby psyclone » Wed Aug 19, 2020 2:03 pm

Here we are sitting on "bell ring eve" and it is really useful to remember that we're entering that time of the year where systems just find a way to develop. The NHC outlook reflects these probabilities nicely. there's a 1 in 10 shot it's a total dud. there's a 9 in 10 shot it's something more...worthy of a number or a name. Details yet to be resolved. Something is likely to happen here because we have entered the time when it usually does. Most disturbances, even precursors to biggies, struggle at some point or are at least otherwise slow to develop. But they manage to persist. And at this time of the year, more often than not, they eventually end up in favorable environment and suddenly blossom. It's just what happens. Our system looks good...as does 97. The NHC expects development and so should we.
7 likes   

User avatar
ouragans
Category 1
Category 1
Posts: 490
Age: 53
Joined: Sun Jun 12, 2011 12:09 pm
Location: Abymes, Guadeloupe F.W.I
Contact:

Re: ATL: INVEST 98L - Discussion

#536 Postby ouragans » Wed Aug 19, 2020 2:03 pm

There won't be any PTC until 1000 km far from the Leewards, which is 36-48 hrs before
2 likes   
Personal forecast disclaimer
This post is a personal point of view, not an information. Please refer to official statements for life-threatening decisions.

David '79, Frederic '79, Hugo '89, Iris, Luis & Marilyn '95, Georges '98, Lenny '99, Dean '07, Irma '17, Maria '17, Fiona '22, Philippe '23, Tammy '23
16°13'33.3,"6N -61°36'39.5"W

User avatar
EquusStorm
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 1649
Age: 34
Joined: Thu Nov 07, 2013 1:04 pm
Location: Jasper, AL
Contact:

Re: ATL: INVEST 98L - Discussion

#537 Postby EquusStorm » Wed Aug 19, 2020 2:11 pm

Image
16 likes   
Colors of lost purpose on the canvas of irrelevance

Not a meteorologist, in fact more of an idiot than anything. You should probably check with the NHC or a local NWS office for official information.

User avatar
DestinHurricane
Category 4
Category 4
Posts: 935
Joined: Tue May 01, 2018 8:05 am
Location: New York, NY

Re: ATL: INVEST 98L - Discussion

#538 Postby DestinHurricane » Wed Aug 19, 2020 2:13 pm



No. Gfs hits the right button every time.
2 likes   
Michael 2018

User avatar
eastcoastFL
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 3901
Age: 43
Joined: Thu Apr 12, 2007 12:29 pm
Location: Palm City, FL

Re: ATL: INVEST 98L - Discussion

#539 Postby eastcoastFL » Wed Aug 19, 2020 2:13 pm

One thing i dislike about storms this Far East is losing visible so early
3 likes   
Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

User avatar
aspen
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 8818
Joined: Sat Oct 12, 2019 7:10 pm
Location: Connecticut, USA

Re: ATL: INVEST 98L - Discussion

#540 Postby aspen » Wed Aug 19, 2020 2:14 pm

I marked up this graphic for both systems, but it's just as important for 98L, so I'll post it here. I've circled the rough areas where 97L and 98L should be in 96 hrs (97L) and 120 hrs (98L). I didn't go as far with 97L because models are even more iffy than 98L. Assuming 98L stays north of the Greater Antilles, it'll be running through higher and higher SSTs until it reaches 30-31C surface temperatures in the southern Bahamas. If we have a defined TC reach that area, and if the UL environment does turn out to be good, we could quickly have a problem on our hands. Of course, all of this depends on when 98L develops, how fast it's moving (the Euro is too fast for it to become anything significant), whether it hits any of the islands or not, and whether or not it could recurve, and if so, where.
Image
5 likes   
Irene '11 Sandy '12 Hermine '16 5/15/2018 Derecho Fay '20 Isaias '20 Elsa '21 Henri '21 Ida '21

I am only a meteorology enthusiast who knows a decent amount about tropical cyclones. Look to the professional mets, the NHC, or your local weather office for the best information.


Return to “2020”

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 6 guests