ATL: LAURA - Models

[SFLcane]

Well look at this!

[ConvergenceZone]

I’ve seen some people talk about the favorable UL environment near the Bahamas when 98L is expected to arrive, but that’s only part of the story. Look at how insane the SSTs are in the region — up to 31C! No wonder why the HWRF has been trying to get a major out of this as it approaches Florida.

the hwrf has been overcooking systems for years regardless of sst's...its occasionally correct and that is more about luck than actual skil

Although I believe there is some accuracy to the statement "More Luck than Skill", but to some degree the HWRF is a good model to use when conditions are optimal for RI. Not saying that is the case here, because it tends to always overdo the amount of deepening.

But down the road, my main concern is certainly the forward speed of 98L. Making it to the U.S mainland by Monday? Hard to fathom we will get a well organized CoC at that kind of forward speed.

I didn’t even think about that, good point!
From way east of the islands, to potentially off the coast of Florida in 5 days is INSANELY FAST. No wonder the EURO isn’t developing it. I don’t think anything can develop at that ridiculous speed

[AutoPenalti]

Well look at this!

https://cdn1.bbcode0.com/uploads/2020/8/19/da1857665c06dee5f1c3b83c1a5cf201-full.png

https://cdn1.bbcode0.com/uploads/2020/8/19/aa4dab72bfdcaafc109866835ea2685e-full.png

So that hasn't changed much.

[jlauderdal]

Euro is making me breathe a little easier this afternoon.

i wouldnt get to comfortable, the euro seems way to fast and thus it struggles to develop the system, it could be correct but its at odds with the other "reliable" modeling

[TheStormExpert]

I give up with these models!!

[TheStormExpert]

Well look at this!

https://cdn1.bbcode0.com/uploads/2020/8/19/da1857665c06dee5f1c3b83c1a5cf201-full.png

https://cdn1.bbcode0.com/uploads/2020/8/19/aa4dab72bfdcaafc109866835ea2685e-full.png

So that hasn't changed much.

Slight uptick, but not much.

[lsuhurricane]

Slight uptick, but not much.

Long term, I'd have to disagree mightily from its 0z run

[northjaxpro]

I’ve seen some people talk about the favorable UL environment near the Bahamas when 98L is expected to arrive, but that’s only part of the story. Look at how insane the SSTs are in the region — up to 31C! No wonder why the HWRF has been trying to get a major out of this as it approaches Florida.

This aspect is not lost with this analyst. It is abnormally wam , boilng warm ssts in the Gulf Stream. First, we have to get an established initialized CoC. Once this is finally established, should 98L somehow manages to avoid major land interaction with the Greater Antilles, specificially Hispaniola, watch out!!

[TheStormExpert]

Some good discussion concerning the latest 12z Euro run.

 https://twitter.com/AndyHazelton/status/1296149815592706048




 https://twitter.com/AndyHazelton/status/1296150500895752194




 https://twitter.com/JackSillin/status/1296151637455708161




 https://twitter.com/DerekOrtt/status/1296174347019866116

[NDG]

Another look at the 12z Euro ensembles as they track through or close to southern FL.

[caneseddy]

ICON at 69 hours further north from last run and clears the islands. Still weak but should start to intensify shortly if it follows its past runs.

[SouthFLTropics]

ICON at 69 hours further north b a hair from last run but looks to clear the islands.

12z vs 18z at 66 hours

[SouthFLTropics]

For reference... Todays 12z ICON at 126 hours put a 992mb storm between Andros and the Cuban coast. 18z will end at 120 hours so this will be a good comparison.

[wxman57]

I see that the EC ensembles are a lot more bullish on development, taking 98L inland as a hurricane as far west as north of Corpus Christi, TX and as far east as east of the OBX. Quite a spread. I would think that the next operational run might at least develop something. All models seem to be in good agreement on "something" reaching the NE Gulf Coast Wednesday afternoon.

I'm not buying the strong storm in the central Gulf solution for 97L by the ICON. I think it's more likely to be very weak and track across the BoC into Mexico.

[DestinHurricane]

[captainbarbossa19]

Another look at the 12z Euro ensembles as they track through or close to southern FL.

https://i.imgur.com/1j81rOf.png

Most of the members are taking this into the Gulf. Let's see if that trend continues. I hope they're wrong about the track.

[SouthFLTropics]

ICON Run Complete...Definitely further north at about the same strength.

Edit: Slightly stronger than 12z at 989mb

[sma10]

I see that the EC ensembles are a lot more bullish on development, taking 98L inland as a hurricane as far west as north of Corpus Christi, TX and as far east as east of the OBX. Quite a spread. I would think that the next operational run might at least develop something. All models seem to be in good agreement on "something" reaching the NE Gulf Coast Wednesday afternoon.

I'm not buying the strong storm in the central Gulf solution for 97L by the ICON. I think it's more likely to be very weak and track across the BoC into Mexico.

And while very dramatic, I find it very hard to believe Miami and New Orleans will be directly hit simultaneously

[SFLcane]

Icon about to slam into SFL.. further north to

[SoupBone]

I see that the EC ensembles are a lot more bullish on development, taking 98L inland as a hurricane as far west as north of Corpus Christi, TX and as far east as east of the OBX. Quite a spread. I would think that the next operational run might at least develop something. All models seem to be in good agreement on "something" reaching the NE Gulf Coast Wednesday afternoon.

I'm not buying the strong storm in the central Gulf solution for 97L by the ICON. I think it's more likely to be very weak and track across the BoC into Mexico.

The last CMC run had a smiliar solution for 97L as well. You're also eerily absent from that thread.