ATL: LAURA - Models

[ConvergenceZone]

So many people worship the GFS and EURO, it’s actually quite comical... No matter how many times they are wrong during this season, they will keep worshiping them

What's not to love? They've had a stellar summer

lol. Nice sarcasm

[AxaltaRacing24]

Wasn’t the GFS predicting a huge blow up in the EPAC with majors everywhere and nothing would form in the Atlantic? What happened there? Only Genevieve made it to major

Seriously, as many pro Mets have said today, it maybe better to look at the ensembles rather than the deterministic models at this time and the ensembles are much more bullish on 98l

there was even a point where the epac had 0 storms and the natl had 2 during the "outbreak"

[Cat5James]

18Z HMON appears to have initialized too far south.

[tiger_deF]

It just seems hard to believe that something, anything doesn't develop from 98L with the sheer amount of spin and convection it has been able to produce

[stormlover2013]

Gfs is really doing well or it sucks bad lol

[TheStormExpert]

Gfs is really doing well or it sucks bad lol

50/50. Most would agree it sucks right now. But every blind squirrel finds a nut every now and then!

[ConvergenceZone]

Let’s just put it this way, if by tomorrow at this time we don’t have a Depression/Storm and it still looks like a mess, I’ll be the first to give the GFS/EURO Kudos!

[TheStormExpert]

Let’s just put it this way, if by tomorrow at this time we don’t have a Depression/Storm and it still looks like a mess, I’ll be the first to give the GFS/EURO Kudos!

Seems fair!

Then of course people like me will begin to question the favorability of this season.

[NDG]

Not much rain even for South Florida if the 18Z GFS verifies. I am sure the 18Z HWRF and HMON will show a CAT 5 into South Florida They are a bit better if we have a storm with a well-defined center already.

https://i.postimg.cc/1zdhDRbc/gfs-apcpn24-seus-18.png

You can thank that to the Bermuda Ridge shown on the 18z GFS run that most times acts to protect the FL Peninsula, especially central FL.

[DestinHurricane]

@cp79 NHC>any model. NHC says GFS/Euro won't verify.

[NDG]

Let’s just put it this way, if by tomorrow at this time we don’t have a Depression/Storm and it still looks like a mess, I’ll be the first to give the GFS/EURO Kudos!

Seems fair!

Then of course people like me will begin to question the favorability of this season.

For the last few days I have been saying that it would not surprise me if 98L would not develop until it gets closer to the Lesser Antilles.
2017 went through this also, no strong hurricane developed east of the Lesser Antilles until the dust settled down after the 1st of September.
The majority of latest Euro ensembles & GFS ensembles are still developing 98L at some point.

[Blown Away]

@cp79 NHC>any model. NHC says GFS/Euro won't verify.

What does this mean?

[CFLHurricane]

@cp79 NHC>any model. NHC says GFS/Euro won't verify.

What does this mean?

This means the experienced meteorologists at the NHC are superior forecasters to a non-sentient computer model.

[DestinHurricane]

@cp79 NHC>any model. NHC says GFS/Euro won't verify.

What does this mean?

This means the experienced meteorologists at the NHC are superior forecasters to a non-sentient computer model.

Exactly this. Never bet against the NHC. Some people are GFS huggers, some are "King" Euro huggers, I'm a NHC hugger.

[SFLcane]

18z HWRF still early appears further north.

[Blown Away]

18z HWRF 57 hrs... Decent N shift and may skim big islands instead of down the middle... I believe TVCN is affected by HWRF...

[SFLcane]

18z HWRF 57 hrs... Decent N shift and may skim big islands instead of down the middle... I believe TVCN is affected by HWRF...

Will pass north of PR on this run. Shift north no doubt

[ConvergenceZone]

@cp79 NHC>any model. NHC says GFS/Euro won't verify.

What does this mean?

This means the experienced meteorologists at the NHC are superior forecasters to a non-sentient computer model.

Exactly. And a model is only as good as the data given to it, and that data isn’t always going to be reliable

[toad strangler]

HWRF clears PR to the N by a substantial margin @18z

[SFLcane]

Oh boy HWRF... big shift north