ATL: LAURA - Models

[eastcoastFL]

What time does the CMC run?

[TheStormExpert]

The fact that this is likely 5 days from passing south or striking S.FL and the GFS and Euro show nothing is embarrassing. Not saying the hurricane models are correct as they may be overdoing intensity (hopefully). But if the latest 18z HWRF run of a 942mb Cat.4 striking SE Florida come to fruition a lot of people are going to be caught off guard!!

[Kazmit]

What time does the CMC run?

No 18z on TT, so around midnight for the 0z.

[eastcoastFL]

Good thing the HWRF is never accurate in terms of intensity this far out.

I do think it's on to something with development of a TC in 24-48 hours, but beyond that nope.

It nailed Irmas track. I don’t remember intensity

[TheStormExpert]

Hard to believe less than a week ago everyone was asking when the models will even show a closed low somewhere in the tropics, now we have the opposite problem almost overnight

I’m guessing you’re not counting the GFS and Euro anymore?

[TheStormExpert]

Good thing the HWRF is never accurate in terms of intensity this far out.

I do think it's on to something with development of a TC in 24-48 hours, but beyond that nope.

It nailed Irmas track. I don’t remember intensity

Tracks one thing, intensity is a whole other ballgame!

[eastcoastFL]

The fact that this is likely 5 days from passing south or striking S.FL and the GFS and Euro show nothing is embarrassing. Not saying the hurricane models are correct as they may be overdoing intensity (hopefully). But if the latest 18z HWRF run of a 942mb Cat.4 striking SE Florida come to fruition a lot of people are going to be caught off guard!!

I wish we could come up with some good reason for why the euro and gfs are showing nothing. But I can’t and the experts don’t seem sold on them being correct either. We’re just kinda lost for now

[sma10]

The fact that this is likely 5 days from passing south or striking S.FL and the GFS and Euro show nothing is embarrassing. Not saying the hurricane models are correct as they may be overdoing intensity (hopefully). But if the latest 18z HWRF run of a 942mb Cat.4 striking SE Florida come to fruition a lot of people are going to be caught off guard!!

People won't be caught off guard. If the storm behaves as the HWRF depicts then that is what the NHC forecast and advisories will show. About 0.001% of the population follow these models like we do

[TheStormExpert]

The fact that this is likely 5 days from passing south or striking S.FL and the GFS and Euro show nothing is embarrassing. Not saying the hurricane models are correct as they may be overdoing intensity (hopefully). But if the latest 18z HWRF run of a 942mb Cat.4 striking SE Florida come to fruition a lot of people are going to be caught off guard!!

I wish we could come up with some good reason for why the euro and gfs are showing nothing. But I can’t and the experts don’t seem sold on them being correct either. We’re just kinda lost for now

I’m inclined to blame the virus and lack of data being input into them, but who knows anymore!

[TheStormExpert]

The fact that this is likely 5 days from passing south or striking S.FL and the GFS and Euro show nothing is embarrassing. Not saying the hurricane models are correct as they may be overdoing intensity (hopefully). But if the latest 18z HWRF run of a 942mb Cat.4 striking SE Florida come to fruition a lot of people are going to be caught off guard!!

People won't be caught off guard. If the storm behaves as the HWRF depicts then that is what the NHC forecast and advisories will show. About 0.001% of the population follow these models like we do

The HWRF is just one model and not everyone follows the weather as closely as we do.

[Hypercane_Kyle]

The fact that this is likely 5 days from passing south or striking S.FL and the GFS and Euro show nothing is embarrassing. Not saying the hurricane models are correct as they may be overdoing intensity (hopefully). But if the latest 18z HWRF run of a 942mb Cat.4 striking SE Florida come to fruition a lot of people are going to be caught off guard!!

I wish we could come up with some good reason for why the euro and gfs are showing nothing. But I can’t and the experts don’t seem sold on them being correct either. We’re just kinda lost for now

I’m inclined to blame the virus and lack of data being input into them, but who knows anymore!

That's one possibility, but I always was lead to believe the models get their data from Earth orbiting satellites, not commercial airliners. Any mets on here know better?

[eastcoastFL]

Good thing the HWRF is never accurate in terms of intensity this far out.

I do think it's on to something with development of a TC in 24-48 hours, but beyond that nope.

It nailed Irmas track. I don’t remember intensity

Tracks one thing, intensity is a whole other ballgame!

I don’t think it was too far off on intensity either


https://twitter.com/RyanMaue/status/905 ... 78405?s=20

[eastcoastFL]

That is about as mean looking system we have seen heading towards dade county in awhile

Time to start your generator just to be safe jlauderdal!

Yep, 2nd time this season and not even sept. 1

I bought my new one before Isaias , haven’t started it yet.

[toad strangler]

So GFS ensembles are all N of the islands



and then move WNW to the vicinity of S FL

[eastcoastFL]

I wish we could come up with some good reason for why the euro and gfs are showing nothing. But I can’t and the experts don’t seem sold on them being correct either. We’re just kinda lost for now

I’m inclined to blame the virus and lack of data being input into them, but who knows anymore!

That's one possibility, but I always was lead to believe the models get their data from Earth orbiting satellites, not commercial airliners. Any mets on here know better?

They get data from a variety of sources including commercial jets, cargo ships and cruise ships. Minimal cruise ships right now and less overseas flights. Not expert but that’s my understanding

[sma10]

The fact that this is likely 5 days from passing south or striking S.FL and the GFS and Euro show nothing is embarrassing. Not saying the hurricane models are correct as they may be overdoing intensity (hopefully). But if the latest 18z HWRF run of a 942mb Cat.4 striking SE Florida come to fruition a lot of people are going to be caught off guard!!

People won't be caught off guard. If the storm behaves as the HWRF depicts then that is what the NHC forecast and advisories will show. About 0.001% of the population follow these models like we do

The HWRF is just one model and not everyone follows the weather as closely as we do.

The only thing that counts is the NHC. They will not let people be caught off guard if the models are wrong

[gatorcane]

As much as I don’t want to do this, below is what the GFS showed for Dorian last year around the same timeframe. Look familiar? The Euro just started picking it up but had little either. The HWRF was all over Dorian. I am still going with the GFS and Euro consensus for now though on 98L.

See Dorian models thread. A lot of eerie similarities to what is being discussed in this thread:
viewtopic.php?f=89&t=120454&hilit=Dorian&start=280

DORIAN GFS RUN:

[TheStormExpert]

18z HWRF verses Hurricane Andrew in 1992. Same day, different year!

 https://twitter.com/hurricanemanwx/status/1296238138160033793

[SconnieCane]

18z HWRF verses Hurricane Andrew in 1992. Same day, different year!

https://twitter.com/hurricanemanwx/status/1296238138160033793

Should read "On the right, one run of one model's output for what Invest 98L might do."

Omitting that little caveat is as bad as totally dismissing the system's potential because of the Euro/GFS' lack of enthusiasm.

[eastcoastFL]

So GFS ensembles are all N of the islands

http://i.ibb.co/0hbrscg/GEFS1.png

and then move WNW to the vicinity of S FL

http://i.ibb.co/gyyCkvx/GEFS2.png

Are they all fairly weak?