ATL: LAURA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[toad strangler]

None of you commenting on Levi's "bearish" comments watched it all the way through

[gatorcane]

Marked up this WV loop. Main issue is the dry air and NW upper-level winds the invest will hit in a couple of days. You can see the area in the Bahamas which could be more favorable. But by then the invest may not have the structure to take advantage if it goes there, moving fast as well which won’t help. Obviously nothing is static but jut wanted to demonstrate my point. I have been quite bearish on this and here is some of my thinking.

[NDG]

Watch Levi Cowans video. He explains why Euro and GFS may verify

Yes, that's what he said as far as 98L's approach to the Leewards. However, what you left out were his comments about nearly "ideal" conditions IN THE EVENT 98L finds itslef NORTH of the big islands. Re-watch that my friend.

Yep, and he also said that just because the operational GFS and Euro do not show development before the Leeward Islands he mentioned that other models do show development before the Leeward Islands and that Residents in those Islands still have to keep an eye on it.

[SFLcane]

Highly unlikely there is PTC issued tonight the NHC would have already sent out a tweet.

[DestinHurricane]

Highly unlikely there is PTC issued tonight the NHC would have already sent out a tweet.

Was just going to say this.
Edit: Well actually never mind. For Isaias the tweet came out 35 minutes before 11 AM. We should know in the next 40 minutes. Keep checking their twitter.

[ConvergenceZone]

Highly unlikely there is PTC issued tonight the NHC would have already sent out a tweet.

That means that we might also wake up to a tropical storm, especially if it hits a depression tonight. They probably want to see if the convection is going to maintain etc....

[NDG]

If we see at least a weak TD develop just before the Leeward Islands and indeed it stays north of the Greater Antilles like most models are now showing we could very well see our first MH out of it as it tracks WNW north of Cuba.
IMO.

[AubreyStorm]

Highly unlikely there is PTC issued tonight the NHC would have already sent out a tweet.

[Aric Dunn]

So far all the ASCATs are full of ambiguities.. though the latest ASCAT showing a little better circ from North to SE.

Need that convective burst under the MLC.

[NDG]

Not there yet, not even close, but not surprising to me.

[SFLcane]

Not there yet, not even close, but not surprising to me.

https://i.imgur.com/YPW8IzD.png

There is your reason. Bla

PTC ah nope.

[ConvergenceZone]

I'm giving it until this time tomorrow for a depression/storm to form, before I cave and say, the GFS/EURO were right.........We'll see....I think it can do it in 24 hours...

[SFLcane]

Euro for the win.

[wx98]

Not there yet, not even close, but not surprising to me.

https://i.imgur.com/YPW8IzD.png

The models which had genesis tomorrow morning or afternoon are verifying.

[ConvergenceZone]

Everytime I look at Scat I'm confused. I just wish I knew how to read it

[DestinHurricane]

Yeah the GFS/Euro are certainly winning right now.

[cheezyWXguy]

Euro for the win.

Calling it a day at 7am

[DestinHurricane]

Going to be a big bust for literally every model besides 2. Never discredit the euro and gfs.

[ConvergenceZone]

Yeah the GFS/Euro are certainly winning right now.

Yea, it's starting to look like it. I guess it all depends on whether or not we wake up to a depression/storm tomorrow or not. I'm not ready to call it a "win" for the Euro/GFS yet, but every passing hour that it doesn't develop makes that more likely....

[caneseddy]

Let’s bring Bones out

Seriously people, this was not expected to do anything tonight per the models. Almost all models don’t do intensify this until it gets north of the islands. This is nothing new up to this point, IMO

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the NHC and NWS.