ATL: LAURA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[Evil Jeremy]

I'm a bit surprised NHC jumped to TD already, I figured they would wait for the morning satellite imagery, but it makes little difference in the long run.

[toad strangler]

It's a bust? literally all the models but gfs and euro are busting? nhc will lower development chances because gfs and euro show no development??

i really hope we can start deleting some of these garbage posts.

Amen. Hideous.

[CyclonicFury]

A bit surprised NHC classified this already when the recent ASCAT pass did not show any northerly winds west of the center. Going to be interesting to read the discussion and intensity forecast.

[SouthFLTropics]

https://twitter.com/NHC_Atlantic/status/1296271636170027009

huge win for the gfs and euro, right boys.

Not really a win/loss for any model. I don't even think the HWRF/HMON had it developing this early.

You're absolutely correct, they didn't. Not sure if that means anything but it could be ominous.

[CrazyC83]

I didn't expect that...they must have data the rest of us don't have like an ASCAT pass that hasn't publicly been released yet.

[AxaltaRacing24]

https://twitter.com/NHC_Atlantic/status/1296271636170027009

huge win for the gfs and euro, right boys.

Not really a win/loss for any model. I don't even think the HWRF/HMON had it developing this early.

yeah correct, but you had people saying that development into a TD was unlikely when no model shows it truly getting much stronger for another 50 hours.

[wx98]

It's a bust? literally all the models but gfs and euro are busting? nhc will lower development chances because gfs and euro show no development??

i really hope we can start deleting some of these garbage posts.

I particularly enjoyed the “lower development chances” posts every six hours the last couple days, and when it came time, they always raised the chances.

[eastcoastFL]

https://twitter.com/NHC_Atlantic/status/1296271636170027009

huge win for the gfs and euro, right boys.

Not really a win/loss for any model. I don't even think the HWRF/HMON had it developing this early.

It say it’s still a loss all around if none of them picked up on genesis ahead of time

[crownweather]

It's a bust? literally all the models but gfs and euro are busting? nhc will lower development chances because gfs and euro show no development??

i really hope we can start deleting some of these garbage posts.

Amen. Hideous.

Seconded. The posts over the last hour have been irritating. Lots of tall weeds to wade through.

[DestinHurricane]

huge win for the gfs and euro, right boys.

Not really a win/loss for any model. I don't even think the HWRF/HMON had it developing this early.

It say it’s still a loss all around if none of them picked up on genesis ahead of time

Well then. Literally every model busted! None of them showed development this early.

It will be interesting to see what models say after they get recon out there.

[Cataegis96]

I think the NHC may have went with the WINDSAT pass.

[DorkyMcDorkface]

This was posted in a Discord server I'm in, and from this is sort of does look like it's closed...?

[SouthFLTropics]

I hate to bring this up but since Gatorcane did earlier on the models page then I suppose it is worth mentioning again.

Go back in the archives and read some of the early discussions on the model runs for Dorian last year. Start browsing at page 15 and go from there. Eerily, they very well could be mixed in with this forum and you would think we are talking about the same storm. Freaky similarities. Not saying this is going to go all Dorian or anything but we have recent history of less than a year ago with questions in modeling of a storm very much in the same area and state.

[SFLcane]

https://twitter.com/derekortt/status/12 ... 14240?s=21

epic fail by the GFS and ECMWF again this year. Never thought the models to look at would be the Canadian and ICON

[sma10]

A bit surprised NHC classified this already when the recent ASCAT pass did not show any northerly winds west of the center. Going to be interesting to read the discussion and intensity forecast.

Yes looking forward to this discussion. Obviously, they will mention the great disparity between the GFS/EURO (dissipation) and the hurricane models (major hurricane), but am most interested in how they sort out their specific 120 hr forecast. Certainly they cannot mirror the HWRF solution of a 130kt hurricane over Dade County; yet they are also not going to forecast a dissipated remnant low. My guess -- they will split the difference and put it around Andros Island at 55-65 knots

[DorkyMcDorkface]

 https://twitter.com/AndyHazelton/status/1296274541048729600

[AxaltaRacing24]

https://twitter.com/derekortt/status/1296273966991114240?s=21

epic fail by the GFS and ECMWF again this year. Never thought the models to look at would be the Canadian and ICON

the cmc and icon were 2 of the models that picked all this stuff up first.

[BobHarlem]

If they go with TVCN, the forecast track will end up near/over the keys.

[DestinHurricane]

A bit surprised NHC classified this already when the recent ASCAT pass did not show any northerly winds west of the center. Going to be interesting to read the discussion and intensity forecast.

Yes looking forward to this discussion. Obviously, they will mention the great disparity between the GFS/EURO (dissipation) and the hurricane models (major hurricane), but am most interested in how they sort out their specific 120 hr forecast. Certainly they cannot mirror the HWRF solution of a 130kt hurricane over Dade County; yet they are also not going to forecast a dissipated remnant low. My guess -- they will split the difference and put it around Andros Island at 55-65 knots

Typically they follow the intensity consensus pretty close but don't know if they will this time as it's at cat 3.

[NDG]

Levi Cowan had to back paddle.

 https://twitter.com/TropicalTidbits/status/1296273429876879361