ATL: MARCO - Remnants - Discussion

[captainbarbossa19]

This system is looking better organized this evening and will likely develop over the next few days as it approaches the Yucatan Peninsula. I don't know why most models refuse to develop this. I've been thinking this system would develop for several days now and the NHC has been on it as well. I must say this year tropical forecasting has been much tougher than normal with how bad the models are performing. And it is already a tough job to begin with.

Well according to what 57 just said, it’s going towards the central Gulf if it develops and if not then it’s going to Mexico. I just want some rain already tired of temps near 100 every day for the past few weeks. Don’t want anything strong of course, though.

I feel ya! And I agree our weather pattern has sucked most of the summer and I'm ready for some rain and cooler temperatures. Hopefully this system will bring us just that but forecast confidence is so slow we just won't know for a few days.

My area definitely could use some rain. I have had less than half an inch this whole month so far. So dry after having almost 15 inches of rain in June and July. That's Texas weather.

[SoupBone]

I've never thought much of this disturbance. My focus has been on 98L as the bigger threat. It all will come down to what it does late Friday/Saturday over the NW Caribbean. If it suddenly blows up there, then it may turn more northward toward the south-central Gulf. Otherwise, it's heading west.

Define south-central gulf.

What area is that?

[SoupBone]

This system is looking better organized this evening and will likely develop over the next few days as it approaches the Yucatan Peninsula. I don't know why most models refuse to develop this. I've been thinking this system would develop for several days now and the NHC has been on it as well. I must say this year tropical forecasting has been much tougher than normal with how bad the models are performing. And it is already a tough job to begin with.

Well according to what 57 just said, it’s going towards the central Gulf if it develops and if not then it’s going to Mexico. I just want some rain already tired of temps near 100 every day for the past few weeks. Don’t want anything strong of course, though.

I feel ya! And I agree our weather pattern has sucked most of the summer and I'm ready for some rain and cooler temperatures. Hopefully this system will bring us just that but forecast confidence is so slow we just won't know for a few days.

I mean I feel ya, but I'd rather be bone dry paying a high water bill from watering my yard every single day, than dealing with a hurricane. I've been through too many.

[Blinhart]

I've never thought much of this disturbance. My focus has been on 98L as the bigger threat. It all will come down to what it does late Friday/Saturday over the NW Caribbean. If it suddenly blows up there, then it may turn more northward toward the south-central Gulf. Otherwise, it's heading west.

Define south-central gulf.

What area is that?

He usually means Louisiana Coast when he states that, but I'm not 100% sure.

[SoupBone]

I've never thought much of this disturbance. My focus has been on 98L as the bigger threat. It all will come down to what it does late Friday/Saturday over the NW Caribbean. If it suddenly blows up there, then it may turn more northward toward the south-central Gulf. Otherwise, it's heading west.

Define south-central gulf.

What area is that?

He usually means Louisiana Coast when he states that, but I'm not 100% sure.

I was thinking Biloxi/Gulfport, but that's close enough.

[tailgater]

Starting to refire on or very near the center again, I think once it gets to 80W it will be moist enough support a CDO

[Steve]

Maybe he did. South Central Gulf would indicate something north of the Yucatan probably between 22-24N. I could be wrong but I read it as it could go into the SC Gulf or it would just plow westward. He's from close enough to here and knows we call it the deep south or the Gulf South and Southern/South Central/etc. US - just not the south central gulf because we're north central Gulf.

[hurricanehunter69]

Check out the significant increase in bright purple color (Energy) depicted in Mimic-TPW. 97L is definitely on it's way now! http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/m ... anim=html5

[tailgater]

Check out the significant increase in bright purple color (Energy) depicted in Mimic-TPW. 97L is definitely on it's way now! http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/m ... anim=html5

Yep IR Sat.loop starting to have popcorn popping all over,

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/sat/satlooper.php?region=97L&product=ir

[USTropics]

97L has started to tap into the moisture envelope over South/Central America which is critical for this system to develop, as seen in GFS analysis:


Its had a pronounced low-level circulation throughout the day, but you can tell the mid-level dry air has prevented this from building with heights:


As this slows down and mixes the mid-level dry air out of the western Caribbean (vacuum effect incoming), I would be shocked if we don't get some type of development in the western Caribbean.

[GCANE]

Very deep convection firing. Looks much better than TD13.
The TPW tap from the EPAC and anticyclone did the trick.

A quick look at the GoM for down the road and preliminary indications are that the Rossby wave may pull out early Saturday.
Checking into this further.

[GCANE]

That moisture feed from Genevieve is definitely having an effect for the GoM setup.
The PV Streamer that was in the Yucatan channel has quickly moved north.
Moisture is starting to fill the bottom of the Rossby Wave.
This model shows the RW pulling out in 48 hrs.

http://www.stormsurfing.com/cgi/display ... a=glob_250

[GCANE]

If the Rossby Wave pulls out or weakens, steering will likely shift a bit more to the west.

[abajan]

Lots of lightning overnight:



Usually a sign of intensification.

[Aric Dunn]

If that does not have a closed circ I would be shocked.

luckily we have recon later today.

[NDG]

Before I went to bed last night I noticed a very well defined little vorticity, during the night it filled with convection near it. There are signs this morning that it now has or is very close to a closed circulation.

[catskillfire51]

Watching satellite over the last 12 hours the rossby wave is still pushing South.

[Aric Dunn]

Models have been off with this system as well. looks pretty organized and well on its way. interesting next few days...

[northjaxpro]

Before I went to bed last night I noticed a very well defined little vorticity, during the night it filled with convection near it. There are signs this morning that it now has or is very close to a closed circulation.

https://i.imgur.com/j6kunuv.gif

I believe we have a developing LLC in that vicinity of the X marked spot . NDG I agree.

I expect this to be TD 14 within the next 12-18 hours.

[3090]

Before I went to bed last night I noticed a very well defined little vorticity, during the night it filled with convection near it. There are signs this morning that it now has or is very close to a closed circulation.

https://i.imgur.com/j6kunuv.gif

I noticed the same thing late last night as well. But from satellite imagery, I do not trust in making a statement identifying a LLC. I am not skilled enough. But I thought it looked very curious, none the less. We’ll know soon enough. The sooner it becomes a TD and should strengthen, the more northerly it will track. Could be what wxman57 is seeing.