ATL: LAURA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[toad strangler]

That discussion does not mention any other inhibitors to development besides land interaction...

It's becoming pretty clear. IF 13 makes it N of the big islands ...

[wxman57]

That initial latitude of 14.6N looks too far north, over a degree too far. The NHC trick mirrors consensus, but is a degree or more north of consensus.

[Blown Away]

I bet next advisory they will take it to cane. If it avoids land I see no reason it won’t be a hurricane in FL.

That cone is >2100 miles long. Whoa!

[DestinHurricane]

I bet next advisory they will take it to cane. If it avoids land I see no reason it won’t be a hurricane in FL.

I think we may only be a few advisories away from possibly a M being thrown on that cone. Need to get recon out first though. Hopefully that data will cure whatever disease the GFS/Euro have.

[WxEp]

That discussion does not mention any other inhibitors to development besides land interaction...

The environmental conditions appear generally favorable for the
depression to strengthen, with the wind shear expected to remain
relatively low while the system moves over warm SSTs and remains in
a moist airmass. These conditions should promote gradual
strengthening and it seems quite likely that the cyclone will be a
tropical storm when it moves near or north of the northern Leeward
Islands in a couple of days. The bigger question is how
much interaction will there be with the Greater Antilles. If the
depression moves on the south side of the guidance envelope,
further strengthening would be limited due to land interaction.
Conversely, if the system gains more latitude and moves north of
these highly topographic islands, it could have the opportunity for
more significant intensification. The NHC intensity forecast, which
is of low confidence, is roughly near the middle of the guidance
envelope.

I agree, this part of the discussion is arguably the most concerning in my opinion.

[wx98]

That initial latitude of 14.6N looks too far north, over a degree too far. The NHC trick mirrors consensus, but is a degree or more north of consensus.

The initial position when it was first posted here that it had become TD 13 was 13.2, -47.0. So they moved it quite a bit for the advisory.

[Evil Jeremy]

I bet next advisory they will take it to cane. If it avoids land I see no reason it won’t be a hurricane in FL.

I do think they will forecast a Hurricane sooner than later, and I expected them to avoid that with the first advisory. I mean, c'mon, it's 11pm. No one is going to start prepping immediately. Everyone wants to sleep. There's no reason for NHC to throw that out just before everyone goes to bed. But should the data in 10-12 hours continue to suggest that's probable, then up it to Hurricane at 11am. That's probably the best time of day to get the word out anyway.

I'm shocked how quickly the NHC shows 13 speeding across the FL Straits, into the Gulf. Hours 72-120, it's racing to the Gulf.

[psyclone]

This sure has potential to outperform. Recall Michael and Dorian had modest extended range intensity estimates early on. Not suggesting this one goes crazy...but some do and this is that time of year...

[NDG]

That discussion does not mention any other inhibitors to development besides land interaction...

Yep, no mention of any shear of dry conditions ahead of it, at all.
I agree.

[Jr0d]

Perhaps force feeding the GFS and Euro the input as a depression will help them sort the mess out.

I expect much different(at least intensity) outputs from the big 2 tomorrow.

[caneseddy]

That discussion does not mention any other inhibitors to development besides land interaction...

Yep, no mention of any shear of dry conditions ahead of it, at all.
I agree.

I think this is the first time in a while that I have seen a first advisory not mention "shear ahead of storm" or "dry air to its north" which they usually do; that is concerning that the NHC believes everything in the upper levels is all systems go for this to be a major problem.

[NDG]

I bet next advisory they will take it to cane. If it avoids land I see no reason it won’t be a hurricane in FL.

Once they get more persistency from the models that it will stay north of the GA, I am sure they will take it to a cane.

[sma10]

I never buy into superstitious storm nonsense, but I do find it mildly interesting that the forecast calls for the system to affect S Dade County the morning of Aug 24th ... a particularly ominous anniversary for that area... from a system that is forecast to be a bit disheveled around PR, but then enter a much more ideal upper level environment as it races quickly westward like a freight train.

Oh. Also: August 24, 1992 was a Monday

[TallyTracker]

This sure has potential to outperform. Recall Michael and Dorian had modest extended range intensity estimates early on. Not suggesting this one goes crazy...but some do and this is that time of year...

Michael’s first 5-day intensity forecast was practically identical to this one. Track was spot on. Intensity was off by 80 kts...

[SouthFLTropics]

00z ICON is running. I would post it in the model thread but the admins had to lock it to take out the trash.

[ConvergenceZone]

Are there any other storms that became major hurricanes that were moving at the lightning speed that this is forecast to move?
I would think that would be the thing it has going against it...

[St0rmTh0r]

Very gloomy outlook by NHC. Sounds like they're going with a favorable environment especially as it gets into the Bahamas. Track takes it ever so closely away from the islands and possibly further. Man people dont need this right now

[ColdMiser123]

I'm not confident the 0z guidance will have any appreciable difference from the output they've been showing in the past. Data assimilation is quite complicated, and some kinds of data assimilation can automatically "throw out" certain observations if some observed values appear to be too outrageous.

However, that automatic filtering is not perfect, as one run of the HWRF included a bad observation for Typhoon Mangkhut. Because of that, the flow field became unstable, and you got outrageous model output.

[DestinHurricane]

Are there any other storms that became major hurricanes that were moving at the lightning speed that this is forecast to move?
I would think that would be the thing it has going against it...

IIRC Michael was moving pretty fast. Dennis was also fast. Both became majors in the gulf.

[SouthFLTropics]

ICON a hair weaker and a tad further South closer to PR through 72 hours.