ATL: LAURA - Models

[SouthFLTropics]

There is almost a 0% chance this curves away from the US. It has a far better shot at getting shredded by land masses than going OTS. The mid-level ridge will be very powerful and will only expand over time.

As USTropics implied, the stronger 98L becomes in the short term, the more likely it is to curve earlier, all other factors being equal/remaining the same (ceteris paribus). The strongest GEFS members in the short term are the ones that end up taking 98L over or just east of the east coast of FL. Those members show 98L curving NW and even NNW as it nears FL, à la Matthew/Dorian. Global models have been significantly underestimating the short-term organisation of 98L. But I won’t belabour the point. We shall wait and see what happens.

i'm hoping for changes in the setup that could cause an ots shift, but the latest euro doesn't show anything even close to that. the ridge 168 hours out is still favorable for a landfall on this run.

Agreed, the synoptic pattern looks pretty set. Whatever shape this thing comes in appears to be coming as far west as the peninsula at least. After that, I think it's still up in the air. Lots of different options per the models. As someone once said, "I've got a fever...and the only prescription is more RECON". Or something like that.

[Blown Away]

2:00 AM AST Thu Aug 20
Location: 15.1°N 49.0°W
Moving: WNW at 20 mph
Min pressure: 1008 mb
Max sustained: 35 mph

Based on 2am position you are already well R of all the 00z GFS ensembles.

[SouthFLTropics]

2:00 AM AST Thu Aug 20
Location: 15.1°N 49.0°W
Moving: WNW at 20 mph
Min pressure: 1008 mb
Max sustained: 35 mph

Based on 2am position you are already well R of all the 00z GFS ensembles.

Yeah, I'm watching closely here in PSL Blown Away. If this tracks right of the forecasts and the models, I think we may end up being very much in play up here on the Treasure Coast. And I'm afraid it may not be pretty.

[USTropics]

In the short-term I'll be watching the upper-level trough to the north of the Leeward Islands and how that evolution plays out. It's slowly backing off towards the NE (purple), as it becomes stretched out and elongated by the large, dry air mass (outlined in white) moving in tandem with TD 13 to the north (this also being aided by the diabatic heating and ventilation of TD 13's convection). What we'll likely see is an ULL cutoff on the southern flank (blue) and push south towards the Caribbean. This could cause some short term shear (and potentially a relocation of the center) over the next 48 hours. After this, depending on the location of these features, if the storm is north of PR/Hispaniola it could provide an effective means for outflow (and conducive environment for strengthening).

[AxaltaRacing24]

2:00 AM AST Thu Aug 20
Location: 15.1°N 49.0°W
Moving: WNW at 20 mph
Min pressure: 1008 mb
Max sustained: 35 mph

Based on 2am position you are already well R of all the 00z GFS ensembles.

Yeah, I'm watching closely here in PSL Blown Away. If this tracks right of the forecasts and the models, I think we may end up being very much in play up here on the Treasure Coast. And I'm afraid it may not be pretty.

i feel that in jupiter. a few subtle north shifts brings us action we don't want. like i said in the models thread, this current setup is hard to re-curve, so with a track north of the islands, we have to hope for synoptic changes that currently aren't there.

[SouthFLTropics]

Ok, so the 00z Euro completed its run and while it didn't show anything of much significance coming from TD13, it does show the energy from it crossing Florida and then abruptly recurving into the panhandle and back across Georgia. Also, a little interesting add on towards the end, is the mysterious vort that catches up and approaches the Florida coast. Very intriguing

[Blown Away]

So I guess the takeaway is the 00z EURO landfalls TD 13 into SFL as a shallow system... I guess we have to wait for the ensembles...

[USTropics]

00z ECMWF ensembles:


On a side note, ECWMF ensembles have been on this continual rotation of active/nonactive between each 12z/00z run. Check this out:

[northjaxpro]

I 'll say this Shell Mound, you are definitely sticking to your guns on the Eastern solution there is no doubt about that in assessing your previous posts.

[Hammy]

GFS looks like it's finally showing a more realistic solution now that we have a TD--probably best to completely toss the model prior to classification by the looks of it

[Blown Away]

Someone woke up the 06z GFS, it has a Cat 1 in SE Bahamas in 96 hours... Heading for SFL and strengthening...

[USTropics]

06z GFS:

[Blown Away]

06z GFS... Cat 1/2 into SFL/Key Largo... Wow this will get the board jumping more than coffee this morning...

[jlauderdal]

06z GFS... Cat 1/2 into SFL/Key Largo... Wow this will get the board jumping more than coffee this morning...

really need to understand why the gfs and euro struggled with this one and i don't believe it was lack of planes and crusie ships, there are enough planes flying for data, you don't need data every 20 mins..the atmospheric setup was always there and sst's certainly were never an issue...the track was decent but the intensity was awful...i expect the track the shift south, if I'm in key west I am buying fuel today for the genny

[Extratropical94]

Cat 2-3 into the Big Bend

[supercane4867]

06z GFS 2 TC in the gulf

[jlauderdal]

06z GFS 2 TC in the gulf

https://i.imgur.com/HRq5vhM.png

https://i.imgur.com/QQAiDgB.png

will have to see if two deep systems in proximity can actually thrive...its possible to do it but cant recall seeing this setup before

[SFLcane]

06z GFS... Cat 1/2 into SFL/Key Largo... Wow this will get the board jumping more than coffee this morning...

I am up I am up.., lol

GFS finally onboard

[USTropics]

06z GFS... Cat 1/2 into SFL/Key Largo... Wow this will get the board jumping more than coffee this morning...

really need to understand why the gfs and euro struggled with this one and i don't believe it was lack of planes and crusie ships, there are enough planes flying for data, you don't need data every 20 mins..the atmospheric setup was always there and sst's certainly were never an issue...the track was decent but the intensity was awful...i expect the track the shift south, if I'm in key west I am buying fuel today for the genny

It seems this season there needs to be an established LLC for the operational GFS/ECMWF to finally give us realistic solutions. In my personal opinion it has some connection with how these models use convective parameterization (maybe the lack of aviation data plays a small part of that, not sure). This was the 00z ECMWF run from the 19th for now (so the run just from 24 hours ago). Completely missed the convective burst that occurred last night over the circulation:

ECMWF forecast projected for now:


What actually happened:

[Shell Mound]

The 06Z GFS seems to show a slightly stronger and more expansive ridge than yesterday’s 18Z run.

18Z yesterday:


06Z today: