ATL: MARCO - Remnants - Discussion

[Shell Mound]

Before I went to bed last night I noticed a very well defined little vorticity, during the night it filled with convection near it. There are signs this morning that it now has or is very close to a closed circulation.

https://i.imgur.com/j6kunuv.gif

Hot take: a compact system with the potential to organise rapidly. Many small, intense systems have a similarly filamentous “ball” with expanding outflow.

[GCANE]

Watching satellite over the last 12 hours the rossby wave is still pushing South.

I think it peaks out in about 24 hrs.

[Extratropical94]

Showers and thunderstorms continue to become better organized in
association with a tropical wave and accompanying broad area of low
pressure over the central Caribbean Sea. Satellite imagery
suggests that the circulation is becoming better defined and if
these development trends continue, a tropical depression is likely
to form today or tonight as the system approaches the northwestern
Caribbean Sea. Interests in Honduras and the Yucatan Peninsula
should closely monitor the progress of this system. Regardless of
development, this disturbance will likely produce heavy rains across
a large portion of Central America and southeastern Mexico late this
week and this weekend. An Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft
is scheduled to investigate the disturbance system later today.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.

[aspen]

Oh boy, 90/90. I think PTC-14 is coming very soon.

[GCANE]

Looks like radar caught a CCW rotating hot tower with off-the-scale intensity.
...2,1...

[xironman]

Looks like it is coming together pretty good, though it is dmax. Probably will feel to pull to the north.

[HurricaneEnzo]

97L is definitely percolating this morning. Getting out of the E Carib. graveyard might be able to establish something now.

[USTropics]

Mid-level vorticity has really improved over night and into this morning. This indicates the moisture influx is allowing for convection to build to the mid-levels. That hot tower Gcane posted will help further establish this:

[stormlover2013]

Should have depression today

[Aric Dunn]

This is coming together quite quickly now. started yesterday morning and overnight as that MLC popped new convection... worked to the surface.

it has time to deepen before hitting the shear.

[3090]

This is coming together quite quickly now. started yesterday morning and overnight as that MLC popped new convection... worked to the surface.

it has time to deepen before hitting the shear.

How significant is the shear?

[3090]

https://twitter.com/WeatherProf/status/1296417202527248384

That is obviously not 97L.

[wxman57]

I think 97L is likely going to become a TD/TS over the NW Caribbean, but as it enters the Gulf Sunday it's going to start interacting with Thirteen/Laura. I think 97L may move toward the NW to north-central Gulf on Monday, but Thirteen/Laura will be entering the SE Gulf at that time. The interaction should lead to 97L weakening and moving SW. Might be able to spread some rain into the TX coast and NE Mexico Tue/Wed. Outside chance it races ahead of Thirteen/Laura and moves into SE LA as a TS.

[aspen]

This is coming together quite quickly now. started yesterday morning and overnight as that MLC popped new convection... worked to the surface.

it has time to deepen before hitting the shear.

How significant is the shear?

There’s a trough in the GoM that future Marco will be interacting with. The stronger it gets, the more that trough will pull it north instead of it continuing NW through the Yucatán. However, it will probably induce at least moderate shear onto the system, but future Marco should have roughly 2 days in the SW Caribbean before that really comes into play.

[MGC]

NW Carb doing its magic....97L likely to be a depression/storm soon. Going to be an interesting few days for us GOM people with the possibility of two TC in the Gulf......MGC

[3090]

This is coming together quite quickly now. started yesterday morning and overnight as that MLC popped new convection... worked to the surface.

it has time to deepen before hitting the shear.

How significant is the shear?

There’s a trough in the GoM that future Marco will be interacting with. The stronger it gets, the more that trough will pull it north instead of it continuing NW through the Yucatán. However, it will probably induce at least moderate shear onto the system, but future Marco should have roughly 2 days in the SW Caribbean before that really comes into play.

It appears that 97L and TD13, are going to have a lot of interaction coming up, as well. Very rare occurence.

[3090]

This is coming together quite quickly now. started yesterday morning and overnight as that MLC popped new convection... worked to the surface.

it has time to deepen before hitting the shear.

How significant is the shear?

There’s a trough in the GoM that future Marco will be interacting with. The stronger it gets, the more that trough will pull it north instead of it continuing NW through the Yucatán. However, it will probably induce at least moderate shear onto the system, but future Marco should have roughly 2 days in the SW Caribbean before that really comes into play.

From what I have been reading and understanding, the rosby wave will be lifting out, leaving a weakness for 97L to follow. As 97L intensifies, it will track more poleward, but will eventually have some type of interaction with TD13 at some point and will be the lesser of the two systems.

[xironman]

I am holding out for Laura/Marco Fujiwhara in the gulf. I know at some point the CMC will show that solution.

[wxman57]

What did New Orleans ever do to hurt Germany? The ICON model has it in for New Orleans. TS Monday then hurricane Wednesday.

[Aric Dunn]

So recon flies into 97L first before td13..

there is a distinct possibility that 97L may go straight to TS. and would become laura