ATL: MARCO - Remnants - Discussion

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chris_fit
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Re: ATL: INVEST 97L - Discussion

#401 Postby chris_fit » Thu Aug 20, 2020 7:52 am

wxman57 wrote:What did New Orleans ever do to hurt Germany? The ICON model has it in for New Orleans. TS Monday then hurricane Wednesday.


Good to see you on here. I'm sure it will be a busy couple days for you. What are your thoughts this morning, specifically can you comment on the models pointing more towards a stronger system pointing at FL?
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Re: ATL: INVEST 97L - Discussion

#402 Postby SouthDadeFish » Thu Aug 20, 2020 7:55 am

Aric Dunn wrote:So recon flies into 97L first before td13..

there is a distinct possibility that 97L may go straight to TS. and would become laura


This is moreso a logistic issue than anything. TD13 just got into range of recon today, plus they had to ferry down to St. Croix first. Both storms will be sampled today, and I suspect both will be identified as TCs.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 97L - Discussion

#403 Postby supercane4867 » Thu Aug 20, 2020 7:57 am

Still looks like a robust wave to me. Very likely to develop today but not there yet this morning.

Image
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Re: ATL: INVEST 97L - Discussion

#404 Postby HurricaneEnzo » Thu Aug 20, 2020 7:58 am

Just look at that convection popping everywhere like popcorn. This loop is so cool to watch.


https://tropicaltidbits.com/sat/satloop ... roduct=vis
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Re: ATL: INVEST 97L - Discussion

#405 Postby Aric Dunn » Thu Aug 20, 2020 8:00 am

SouthDadeFish wrote:
Aric Dunn wrote:So recon flies into 97L first before td13..

there is a distinct possibility that 97L may go straight to TS. and would become laura


This is moreso a logistic issue than anything. TD13 just got into range of recon today, plus they had to ferry down to St. Croix first. Both storms will be sampled today, and I suspect both will be identified as TCs.


Agreed..

but apparently which gets named what.. is the hot topic.. lol
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Re: ATL: INVEST 97L - Discussion

#406 Postby GCANE » Thu Aug 20, 2020 8:01 am

Even though the spatial resolution of this radar is poor, there is a good indication of very high rain rate.
Very likely there is rapid heating under way of the core.

Image
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Re: ATL: INVEST 97L - Discussion

#407 Postby cycloneye » Thu Aug 20, 2020 8:01 am

97L INVEST 200820 1200 15.0N 79.0W ATL 30 1007
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Re: ATL: INVEST 97L - Discussion

#408 Postby BYG Jacob » Thu Aug 20, 2020 8:04 am

wxman57 wrote:What did New Orleans ever do to hurt Germany? The ICON model has it in for New Orleans. TS Monday then hurricane Wednesday.

New Orleans was originally French
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Re: ATL: INVEST 97L - Discussion

#409 Postby WeatherEmperor » Thu Aug 20, 2020 8:07 am

BYG Jacob wrote:
wxman57 wrote:What did New Orleans ever do to hurt Germany? The ICON model has it in for New Orleans. TS Monday then hurricane Wednesday.

New Orleans was originally French

I think when he mentioned Germany he was referring to the ICON model...which is a German model


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Re: ATL: INVEST 97L - Discussion

#410 Postby tiger_deF » Thu Aug 20, 2020 8:08 am

97L on IR looks like the upper half of a hurricane
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Re: ATL: INVEST 97L - Discussion

#411 Postby GCANE » Thu Aug 20, 2020 8:09 am

cycloneye wrote:
97L INVEST 200820 1200 15.0N 79.0W ATL 30 1007


Anti-cyclone right on top.
Big infeed from the EPAC.

Image
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Re: ATL: INVEST 97L - Discussion

#412 Postby aspen » Thu Aug 20, 2020 8:11 am

supercane4867 wrote:Still looks like a robust wave to me. Very likely to develop today but not there yet this morning.

https://i.imgur.com/NqmUaE4.gif

I’d say it’s definitely worthy of being designated as a Potential Tropical Cyclone. It’s not quite a TC yet, but watches and warnings will likely need to be initiated soon.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 97L - Discussion

#413 Postby tolakram » Thu Aug 20, 2020 8:12 am

LLC is very near here IMO.

Image

source: https://re.ssec.wisc.edu/s/b1wkUD
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Re: ATL: INVEST 97L - Discussion

#414 Postby abajan » Thu Aug 20, 2020 8:13 am

WeatherEmperor wrote:
BYG Jacob wrote:
wxman57 wrote:What did New Orleans ever do to hurt Germany? The ICON model has it in for New Orleans. TS Monday then hurricane Wednesday.

New Orleans was originally French

I think when he mentioned Germany he was referring to the ICON model...which is a German model


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I think BYG already knew that.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 97L - Discussion

#415 Postby BYG Jacob » Thu Aug 20, 2020 8:15 am

WeatherEmperor wrote:
BYG Jacob wrote:
wxman57 wrote:What did New Orleans ever do to hurt Germany? The ICON model has it in for New Orleans. TS Monday then hurricane Wednesday.

New Orleans was originally French

I think when he mentioned Germany he was referring to the ICON model...which is a German model


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I know, I was making a joke. ;)
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Re: ATL: INVEST 97L - Discussion

#416 Postby GCANE » Thu Aug 20, 2020 8:15 am

More and more convection firing in the GoM, west of the trof.
Looking very likely the Rossby Wave will take a significant hit and 97L will be a loose cannon in the GoM.
Just hope we won't get an ARWB in the GoM.

Image
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Re: ATL: INVEST 97L - Discussion

#417 Postby 3090 » Thu Aug 20, 2020 8:17 am

wxman57 wrote:What did New Orleans ever do to hurt Germany? The ICON model has it in for New Orleans. TS Monday then hurricane Wednesday.


Well...from a historical perspective, New Orleans was the number one city for immigrants coming from Italy and Germany, prior to WPA being put into place. So maybe it is some sort of angst? 8-)
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Re: ATL: INVEST 97L - Discussion

#418 Postby GCANE » Thu Aug 20, 2020 8:25 am

Big PV Streamer taking a deep dive from the TUTT NW of TD13.
Likely TD13 will take a significant hit as it tracks thru it.
Also, better chance that 97L will have a poleward outflow channel created by it.

Image
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Re: ATL: INVEST 97L - Discussion

#419 Postby gfsperpendicular » Thu Aug 20, 2020 8:29 am

Very photogenic disturbance this morning.
Image
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Re: ATL: INVEST 97L - Discussion

#420 Postby Kazmit » Thu Aug 20, 2020 8:33 am

I don't ever recall two TCs being in the gulf simultaneously, has that happened before?
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