ATL: LAURA - Models

[Blown Away]

This morning's models are of concern, but the Florida "Magic Trap" door may be slightly opening, just a little.

[chris_fit]

Navy lol

Let's put some beef/info behind a post like that please...

[toad strangler]

This morning's models are of concern, but the Florida "Magic Trap" door may be slightly opening, just a little.

That trap door is ALWAYS on the table with this type of track. It's standard SW Atlantic Basin climatology.

[SFLcane]

This morning's models are of concern, but the Florida "Magic Trap" door may be slightly opening, just a little.

Though our secret door is always open i don't see any strong signal yet.

[NDG]

06Z HWRF misses South Florida completely:

https://i.postimg.cc/Tw670NMk/hwrf-z850-vort-13-L-40.png

The track and intensity is very similar to that of Matthew (2016), since it traverses the passage between PBI and Freeport as a Category-4+ TC.

Similar but totally different at the same time. The Bermuda ridge didn't extend that far west and it was weaker than what is forecasted with TD 13.

[TallyTracker]

06z GFS got my attention! It sends a solid Cat 1 hurricane due north into Apalachee Bay and straight across Tallahassee. That would be both devastating wind wise (Tally is known for it’s massive oak trees) and the surge would be massive at the coast.

[SFLcane]

EPS 06z is a ghost town..then again it has always been lol.

[DestinHurricane]

06z GFS got my attention! It sends a solid Cat 1 hurricane due north into Apalachee Bay and straight across Tallahassee. That would be both devastating wind wise (Tally is known for it’s massive oak trees) and the surge would be massive at the coast.

A lot of the big oaks around there already fell. That would be very bad for areas still recovering. Also that's probably a cat 2 at 979.

[AutoPenalti]

EPS 06z is a ghost town..then again it has always been lol.

I'd give it until 12z to see where it's at.

[kevin]

I haven't seen 06z euro myself, but if it's really as empty as is being suggested in this topic, I can't remember the last time there has been such a huge disparity between the euro (or any single major model) and all the other ones. I'm inclined to think that it has to do with the lack of data of the region due to covid-19, but could there be anything else you can think of that can cause such a big difference between a model basically showing nothing and all the others showing (major) hurricanes?

[boca]

I prefer to be in the cone early on just to wait it out and be out of it like usual from our last few threats.

[TheStormExpert]

I prefer to be in the cone early on just to wait it out and be out of it like usual from our last few threats.

Don’t get too complacent! We’re going to get hit one of these days.

[eastcoastFL]

https://i.imgur.com/kB2hSPU.png

Looks like Mathew again

[DestinHurricane]

Not sure I buy the Matthew analogs. This setup reminds me more of Andrew.

Keep in mind that Matthew happened in October when throughs are stronger and send storms more poleward. This is august and we don't even have a trough.

[eastcoastFL]

CMC looks further north too

[Ken711]

[SFLcane]

New 12z models right over SFL...

[tolakram]

Not sure I buy the Matthew analogs. This setup reminds me more of Andrew.

Keep in mind that Matthew happened in October when throughs are stronger and send storms more poleward. This is august and we don't even have a trough.

Andrew moved NW before bending back west. Why does this remind you of Andrew?

[BobHarlem]

12z intensity.

[DestinHurricane]

Not sure I buy the Matthew analogs. This setup reminds me more of Andrew.

Keep in mind that Matthew happened in October when throughs are stronger and send storms more poleward. This is august and we don't even have a trough.

Andrew moved NW before bending back west. Why does this remind you of Andrew?

I mean on approach to landfall it reminds me more of Andrew with the ridge being above it. Sort of like Rita too in this area IIRC. Katrina too for the first landfall. No through to pull it N.