ATL: LAURA - Models

[caneseddy]

Not sure I buy the Matthew analogs. This setup reminds me more of Andrew.

Keep in mind that Matthew happened in October when throughs are stronger and send storms more poleward. This is august and we don't even have a trough.

Andrew moved NW before bending back west. Why does this remind you of Andrew?

To me, the setup looks bit more Irma'ish than Andrew. Like tolakram said, Andrew was heading NW and then made a hard left turn and just kept chugging westward. if TD13/Laura or Marco does form it would be coming from the ESE, like Irma was. He could have meant in strength and the upper level conditions that are ahead of it are identical to Andrew.

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[DestinHurricane]

Not sure I buy the Matthew analogs. This setup reminds me more of Andrew.

Keep in mind that Matthew happened in October when throughs are stronger and send storms more poleward. This is august and we don't even have a trough.

Andrew moved NW before bending back west. Why does this remind you of Andrew?

To me, the setup looks bit more Irma'ish than Andrew. Like tolakram said, Andrew was heading NW and then made a hard left turn and just kept chugging westward. if TD13/Laura or Marco does form it would be coming from the ESE, like Irma was. He could have meant in strength and the upper level conditions that are ahead of it are identical to Andrew.

I'm talking about the ridging. The ridge keeps moving west and keeps pushing the storm west. I know Andrew came in from a slightly different angle but similar setup. Irma, like matthew, was picked up by trough IIRC.

[CDO62]

https://twitter.com/RyanMaue/status/1296431141692616704

[cp79]

How big of an impact will 97L have on TD13? I assume if 97L is stronger and moves more northerly that will cause TD13 to recurve north somewhere either before Fla or just after Fla. However if 97L moves more westerly and into Texas/Mexico, it gives TD13 more of a pathway into the Gulf. Is that right?

[jlauderdal]

CMC looks further north too

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gem/2020082000/gem_mslp_pcpn_watl_20.png

ridge is really not too impressive on that run, regardless, prep your new genny today

[DestinHurricane]

Not sure I buy the Matthew analogs. This setup reminds me more of Andrew.

Keep in mind that Matthew happened in October when throughs are stronger and send storms more poleward. This is august and we don't even have a trough.

Andrew moved NW before bending back west. Why does this remind you of Andrew?

There really needs to be far less comparison to Andrew when hurricanes come in, that was a very unique setup and very well might not be repeated in any of our lifetimes.

I don't mean in intensity. I'm just talking about ridging keeping pushing it west and not allowing it to gain much latitude.

[Shell Mound]

CMC looks further north too

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gem/2020082000/gem_mslp_pcpn_watl_20.png

ridge is really not too impressive on that run, regardless, prep your new genny today

Yes, at this stage I think it will miss FL just to the east, but devastate the Bahamas, sadly. Regardless, everyone should be prepared!

[HurricaneFrances04]

Anyone have any thoughts as to why the GFS, NAVGEM, and CMC appear to show the heaviest precip to the SE of the center when it landfalls in Florida? ICON also has most of the precip to the south.

Of course, it's still 4-5 days out so taking it with a grain of salt. Just thought it was interesting.

[eastcoastFL]

CMC looks further north too

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gem/2020082000/gem_mslp_pcpn_watl_20.png

ridge is really not too impressive on that run, regardless, prep your new genny today

It’s prepped. If the stronger models play out I may just pack the car instead. I’m hoping they show a recurve next run.

[aspen]

There is almost unanimous agreement among the global models that TD13 will track north of the Greater Antilles. The most recent GFS, CMC, NAVGEM, and ICON runs show a TC north of the islands, while the ECMWF shows a wave in the same area. Only the GFS-Para shows TD13 running into the GAs, but its run hasn’t finished yet, so we don’t know if it’ll pull north or end up strengthening in the Gulf.

[plasticup]

12z intensity.

https://i.imgur.com/k8sHf4p.png

Goodness that's a spread

[gatorcane]

The GMAO model has this on the weak side and recurving in the Bahamas east of Florida:

[Evil Jeremy]

https://twitter.com/RyanMaue/status/1296431141692616704

"Just in time for hurricane season" he says, as we're literally halfway through the season's Atlantic names list.

[Nuno]

SOoooo far out (in mileage NOT time) still. Tracks will keep shifting.

We're in prime windshield wipe territory.

[CourierPR]

https://twitter.com/RyanMaue/status/1296431141692616704

"Just in time for hurricane season" he says, as we're literally halfway through the season's Atlantic names list.

Folks on here have been swaying back and forth like trees in a hurricane with the models. It seems like the ensembles have a good grasp of what's going on with TD13.

[NDG]

The operational Euro has been struggling with TD 13 to say the least.

[NDG]

The GMAO model has this on the weak side and recurving in the Bahamas east of Florida:

https://i.postimg.cc/PqxbZKzw/cd897518-718e-37a4-8243-5a51b1d2d242.png

Let me ask you a question, why are you only posting a model that we have no idea how it has been verifying this hurricane season so far. Unless you have that information and you can share with me.

[TheDreamTraveler]

https://twitter.com/RyanMaue/status/1296431141692616704

"Just in time for hurricane season" he says, as we're literally halfway through the season's Atlantic names list.

Folks on here have been swaying back and forth like trees in a hurricane with the models. It seems like the ensembles have a good grasp of what's going on with TD13.

Yeah if you listened to some of the people in the models thread you'd assume there'd still be no storms until the beginning of september just because gfs and euro model runs weren't showing anything despite a lot of evidence showing favorability, approaching peak season, and the fact the models are terrible at predicting cyclogenesis a few days out. That's why it's dangerous to listen and assume that the models are right because you wouldn't realize a potential hurricane was heading your way in 4 days lol tbh the models are STILL having a hard time with TD13 the euro still ends up turning it into an open wave but if you remember multiple euro and gfs runs had this *staying* as an open wave for days more after this

[cp79]

New TD in Caribbean. I firmly believe this is what’s giving these models a headache. What happens with that could affect what happens with TD13.

Reminds me of Charley a bit. That storm was supposed to move north and ride the West Coast of Florida but TS Bonnie moved more easterly than expected and pushed Charley to make an unexpected NE shift at the last second, hitting Port Charlotte instead of Tampa Bay.

[AutoPenalti]

The GMAO model has this on the weak side and recurving in the Bahamas east of Florida:

https://i.postimg.cc/PqxbZKzw/cd897518-718e-37a4-8243-5a51b1d2d242.png

Let me ask you a question, why are you only posting a model that we have no idea how it has been verifying this hurricane season so far. Unless you have that information and you can share with me.

To be fair, it’s the models thread so it’s okay. I don’t know much about this model but from the little I know it did horrible with Irma.