ATL: LAURA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[AutoPenalti]

Storm2k one minute says it's going to be an open wave. The next minute they'll say major into Miami. Make up your mind lol

Well now, they're saying its going to weaken again.

We just have to wait and see at this point, but It's really worrying that the spread hasn't been as pronounced.

[toad strangler]

Not well organized at all. Plenty of obstacles ahead.

Euro has nothing so there is still some chance it may end up being correct and this never develops.

Yikes, that would be a full blown flop from all models if that were the case, Levi did mention that this has potential to be a lot stronger once shear relaxes.

They don't listen. They hug the models.

[Do_For_Love]

I feel like there's a tendency to go to sleep on systems this year when they are struggling without looking at the long term. Kinda happened with Isaias and then that ended up being one of the strongest storms we have had up here. I mean this is a system that could be looking at a low shear, low SAL environment with some ridiculously warm SSTs on a beeline for SFL in a couple days. Now I'm not saying that will happen but I don't see any reason to count 13 out yet. Not to mention it's 2020 and 13 is an unlucky number lol

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the NHC and NWS.

[BYG Jacob]

I remember a storm last year in a very similar situation, just saying.

[Kazmit]

What time is recon today? And is it before or after when 97L is expected to get recon?

[Lance]

What time is recon today? And is it before or after when 97L is expected to get recon?

97/TD14 has recon first and then TD13 sometime after. I think 18z, but could be wrong on exact time.

[Hypercane_Kyle]

Doesn't look too shoddy to me. We've seen far worse looking tropical depressions.

[Extratropical94]

What time is recon today? And is it before or after when 97L is expected to get recon?

Recon into 14L leaves at 11am and should be in the system between 2:45pm and 6pm.
Recon into 13L leaves at 4pm and should be at op altitude from 6pm to 10:30pm.
All times EDT

So if both systems actually have a closed LLC and TS winds, 14L will be Laura and 13L Marco.

[eastcoastFL]

Not well organized at all. Plenty of obstacles ahead.

Euro has nothing so there is still some chance it may end up being correct and this never develops.

Yikes, that would be a full blown flop from all models if that were the case, Levi did mention that this has potential to be a lot stronger once shear relaxes.

They don't listen. They hug the models.

Normally I’d understand sticking with the models but how much more proof do we need this season to say these things are just not right at the moment.

[eastcoastFL]

It’s almost off the screen on the floater. If you satellite guys could nudge a bit to the left I’d appreciate that.. thanks

[DestinHurricane]

Yikes, that would be a full blown flop from all models if that were the case, Levi did mention that this has potential to be a lot stronger once shear relaxes.

They don't listen. They hug the models.

Normally I’d understand sticking with the models but how much more proof do we need this season to say these things are just not right at the moment.[/quote
But most of the models say it will strengthen. I don't mean to be ugly but anyone who hugs just 1 model is a fool. GFS came around this morning. EURO will probably come around later.

[Kazmit]

If this became Marco it may continue the "M" trend of destructive storms we've seen in recent years (Matthew, Maria, Michael).

[sma10]

Not well organized at all. Plenty of obstacles ahead.

Euro has nothing so there is still some chance it may end up being correct and this never develops.

Yikes, that would be a full blown flop from all models if that were the case, Levi did mention that this has potential to be a lot stronger once shear relaxes.

They don't listen. They hug the models.

Which, btw, if you want to hug the models, they say 13 will stay disorganized for the next 24-36 hours or so. The issue I think is the tendency to visualize the end result at 120hrs and compare it to what it looks like now. It causes cognitive dissonance. Plus, the nagging doubt ... could the Euro actually be right all along?

Furthermore, consider the possibility that the system struggling for the next day or two could turn out to be fool's gold. If it was taking shape now and steadily strengthening it might have a tendency to track further right, increasing the possibility of turning earlier

[artist]

Not well organized at all. Plenty of obstacles ahead.

Euro has nothing so there is still some chance it may end up being correct and this never develops.

We do not have the latest of the Euro.

[chaser1]

This could be one of those fast moving storms like Andrew that rapidly intensifies in the last 24 /36 hours before hitting keys or south central florida.
One of those worst case scenarios.

Not predicting that at all ,but one with that potential.

Really hope its not.

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the NHC and NWS.

This is similar to my own concern. Relative humidly clamping down on a healthier/deeper system in the near term, however what the larger globals are NOT broadly suggesting is the possibility of a large and stronger 97L pumping a good deal more moisture northward and aiding to mix out a lot of the dryer air presently projected to be over the Florida Straits when TD13 (Marco) may be in place for RI on approach to W. Bahamas/S. Florida.
(edited out Josephine for Marco

[sma10]

I don't think enough people realize this. A system could be around 73-75W as a middling tropical storm, only 24 hours from landfall. Given the right environment, it would still have time to become extremely destructive

[OuterBanker]

I'm starting to relax on thirteen. JB didn't even mention it this am. (of course the Euro is his gospel).

[wxman57]

I'm not so sure Thirteen has an LLC. Buoy to its west doesn't indicate one.

[Buck]

...DEPRESSION EXPECTED TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM LATER TODAY...
11:00 AM AST Thu Aug 20
Location: 16.0°N 52.0°W
Moving: WNW at 21 mph
Min pressure: 1008 mb
Max sustained: 35 mph

[Kazmit]

Now expected to become a hurricane at 96hrs.