ATL: LAURA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[caneseddy]

Hurricane now forecasted over or near S. Florida. Peaking at 75 mph

[Evil Jeremy]

Now expected to become a hurricane at 96hrs.

Not unexpected. New path takes it just over the Southern tip of the Peninsula.

[NDG]

Now expected to become a hurricane at 96hrs.

Let the upward trend begin over the next few days.

[DestinHurricane]

NHC intensity forecast still pretty conservative given the intensity consensus.

[NDG]

No mention of problems with any dry air or shear.

The environment consisting of light to moderate vertical wind shear
is expected to allow for gradual strengthening over the next few
days, and the NHC forecast calls for the system to become a tropical
storm later today or tonight. The upper-level wind pattern is
expected to remain favorable in the latter portion of the forecast
period, and if there is minimal land interaction, a faster rate of
strengthening is possible at that time. The NHC intensity foreast
now shows the system becoming a hurricane by 96 hours, but it is a
little lower than the consensus aids at days 4 and 5 due to
uncertainty in how much the system will interact with the Greater
Antilles.

[wx98]

NHC intensity forecast still pretty conservative given the intensity consensus.

They’ll always be conservative. They will nudge it up little by little if guidance continues to support a stronger system.

[SFLcane]

Interesting they did not shift track northward tcvn is north of them likely due to models flip flopping to much. If nothing changes I expect a northern shift in track.

[toad strangler]

No mention of problems with any dry air or shear.

The environment consisting of light to moderate vertical wind shear
is expected to allow for gradual strengthening over the next few
days, and the NHC forecast calls for the system to become a tropical
storm later today or tonight. The upper-level wind pattern is
expected to remain favorable in the latter portion of the forecast
period, and if there is minimal land interaction, a faster rate of
strengthening is possible at that time. The NHC intensity foreast
now shows the system becoming a hurricane by 96 hours, but it is a
little lower than the consensus aids at days 4 and 5 due to
uncertainty in how much the system will interact with the Greater
Antilles.

Or much evidence (looking at the cone) of them believing a re-curve E of FL is on the table.

[NDG]

Interesting they did not shift track northward tcvn is north of them likely due to models flip flopping to much. If nothing changes I expect a northern shift in track.

TVCN shifted northward because of the HWRF, and that model always has some wild swings from run to run.

[DestinHurricane]

Interesting they did not shift track northward tcvn is north of them likely due to models flip flopping to much. If nothing changes I expect a northern shift in track.

It did shift north. " This is
slightly north of the previous advisory, and not far from the GFS
ensemble mean."

[Hurricaneman]

Here’s my forecast for 13

This isn’t going to do much the next 24hrs but could intensify pretty quickly beyond that and anyone in the Bahamas and Florida east coast should monitor this system carefully

Now. TD. 35mph
12hrs. TD. 35mph
24hrs. TS. 40mph
36hrs. TS. 45mph
48hrs. TS. 60mph
60hrs. TS. 70mph
72hrs. C1. 75mph
84hrs. C1. 80mph
96hrs. C1. 90mph
108hrs. C2. 105mph
120hrs C3. 120mph Palm Beach Florida
126hrs. C2 100mph Orlando, Florida
132hrs. C1. 75mph. Palm Bay, Florida
144hrs. C1. 80mph offshore Savannah Georgia

These are the opinions of an non professional, please go to the NHC, NOAA and NWS for official info

[toad strangler]

Sped up a little ....

[chaser1]

I am anxiously awaiting data to continue to pour into all dynamic and global models over the course of today and tonight. I have to believe that TD14 will play a greater influence on the environment over the N. Caribbean, Greater Antilles, and the GOM. While nuanced differences might slightly allow TD13 to gain slight latitude on approach to S. Florida.... my greater concern might be the improved mid level Relative Humidly over/near the Florida Straits as a result of all the pumped in moisture streaming north and northeast from TD14's broader envelope. This may filter out a great deal of SAL conditions presently forecast to hamper TD13 from deepening further. RI may really be on the table for TD13 if upper conditions permit.

[hipshot]

This was the 0z Euro forecast valid at hour 30, less than 2 hours from now. It didn't have any convection colder than -50 C, which clearly isn't the case so far, since we have plenty of <-70 C cloud tops.

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/EfyWC9qWsAAo_9U?format=jpg&name=medium

Seems like the Euro simply isn't reading the atmosphere correctly. GFS/Icon have pretty similar scenarios, along with the CMC albeit with it's typical east bias--and all three vastly different than the Euro.

Did you change your Avatar?

[supercane4867]

Two formidable TCs trying to fit into the Gulf at the same time is really something unheard of. One of them probably have to give up its current predicted track, but it's 2020 so...

[hipshot]

Storm2k one minute says it's going to be an open wave. The next minute they'll say major into Miami. Make up your mind lol

What is that "L" southeast of the TD13 symbol on the map at the top of the page

[Extratropical94]

An earlier SSMIS overpass was very
helpful in locating the center of what appears to be a small
circulation. A very recent ASCAT overpass has also revealed a
small circulation that is weak on the southeastern side, but with
winds near tropical storm strength to the north of the center.

Interesting section. If they are talking about the recent METOP-B pass, then I don't really agree with the statement of the pass revealing a circulation near 16N 52W. Only a few northerly winds, and most of them are flagged. Will have to wait for recon..

[Extratropical94]

Storm2k one minute says it's going to be an open wave. The next minute they'll say major into Miami. Make up your mind lol

What is that "L" southeast of the TD13 symbol on the map at the top of the page

Former Invest 98L. It takes a while for the map to get rid of the old invests.

[Hurricaneman]

The track of 13 will depend on what 14 does in the western GOM, if 14 is stronger it could cause 13 to go more East and vice versa

[Hurricaneman]

The latest is showing in the wind barbs a small circulation and TS winds, could have 2 tropical storms at 5 and if named at the same time this would be Laura while the Caribbean system would be Marco but it’s all going to depend if convection can keep going and sustain some