ATL: LAURA - Models

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Re: ATL: THIRTEEN - Models

#1201 Postby Nuno » Thu Aug 20, 2020 9:47 am

Most models still show this storm trucking WNW towards FL or through the Keys. What are the outlier ensembles that start to curve this over FL or east of it showing that would cause this?
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Re: ATL: THIRTEEN - Models

#1202 Postby SouthFLTropics » Thu Aug 20, 2020 9:47 am

12z ICON has commenced... This 12z model suite should be really interesting considering the recent development of TD14 in the Caribbean.

Whew, what a whirlwind 24 hours it has been. It is definitely 8/20/20. RING THE BELL. DING DING.
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Re: ATL: THIRTEEN - Models

#1203 Postby NDG » Thu Aug 20, 2020 9:56 am

Nuno wrote:Most models still show this storm trucking WNW towards FL or through the Keys. What are the outlier ensembles that start to curve this over FL or east of it showing that would cause this?


I don't see any ensemble models recurving east of FL, unless you are talking about some hurricane models like the usual right biased HWRF on its long range.
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Re: ATL: THIRTEEN - Models

#1204 Postby SouthFLTropics » Thu Aug 20, 2020 9:58 am

12Z ICON coming in a bit further SE than 06z

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Re: ATL: THIRTEEN - Models

#1205 Postby SouthFLTropics » Thu Aug 20, 2020 10:10 am

ICON, a hair Southeast and a tad stronger...

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Re: ATL: THIRTEEN - Models

#1206 Postby Dean4Storms » Thu Aug 20, 2020 10:10 am

tolakram wrote:
DestinHurricane wrote:Not sure I buy the Matthew analogs. This setup reminds me more of Andrew.

Keep in mind that Matthew happened in October when throughs are stronger and send storms more poleward. This is august and we don't even have a trough.


Andrew moved NW before bending back west. Why does this remind you of Andrew?


More the synoptics of getting under a building and expanding Ridge once in the Bahamas, think boom!
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Re: ATL: THIRTEEN - Models

#1207 Postby stormlover2013 » Thu Aug 20, 2020 10:22 am

icon 12z cat 2 east of fl panhandle
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Re: ATL: THIRTEEN - Models

#1208 Postby DestinHurricane » Thu Aug 20, 2020 10:24 am

stormlover2013 wrote:icon 12z cat 2 east of fl panhandle


How do you always get the models so fast?
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Re: ATL: THIRTEEN - Models

#1209 Postby SFLcane » Thu Aug 20, 2020 10:24 am

Looks like 12z icon is going for the straits. The bigger question is will the GFS drop 13? lol
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Re: ATL: THIRTEEN - Models

#1210 Postby stormlover2013 » Thu Aug 20, 2020 10:25 am

DestinHurricane wrote:
stormlover2013 wrote:icon 12z cat 2 east of fl panhandle


How do you always get the models so fast?


weatherbell
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Re: ATL: THIRTEEN - Models

#1211 Postby SouthFLTropics » Thu Aug 20, 2020 10:27 am

12z ICON nearly identical to 06z at 96 hours.

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Re: ATL: THIRTEEN - Models

#1212 Postby SFLcane » Thu Aug 20, 2020 10:35 am

12z GFS is weaker thus far..
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Re: ATL: THIRTEEN - Models

#1213 Postby NDG » Thu Aug 20, 2020 10:38 am

Great example of how the GFS has also been struggling with both TD 13 & TD 14 with development & organization.

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Re: ATL: THIRTEEN - Models

#1214 Postby DestinHurricane » Thu Aug 20, 2020 10:38 am

SFLcane wrote:12z GFS is weaker thus far..


Looks about the same to me.
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Re: ATL: THIRTEEN - Models

#1215 Postby Hypercane_Kyle » Thu Aug 20, 2020 10:40 am

Guess it's just too much to ask for the GFS to be consistent for at least two model runs.
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Re: ATL: THIRTEEN - Models

#1216 Postby StrongWind » Thu Aug 20, 2020 10:45 am

SouthFLTropics wrote:12z ICON nearly identical to 06z at 96 hours.

https://i.imgur.com/AeSnASS.gif


Now that looks like something out of a SciFi horror movie.
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Re: ATL: THIRTEEN - Models

#1217 Postby chris_fit » Thu Aug 20, 2020 10:46 am

Hypercane_Kyle wrote:Guess it's just too much to ask for the GFS to be consistent for at least two model runs.


Pretty much poofing for the next 60 hours on the GFS
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Re: ATL: THIRTEEN - Models

#1218 Postby DestinHurricane » Thu Aug 20, 2020 10:48 am

Something is wrong with some of the models. They are not functioning properly. I've never seen anything like this.
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Re: ATL: THIRTEEN - Models

#1219 Postby toad strangler » Thu Aug 20, 2020 10:49 am

GFS def weaker through 72
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Re: ATL: THIRTEEN - Models

#1220 Postby cp79 » Thu Aug 20, 2020 10:52 am

GFS looks to kill it almost.
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