ATL: LAURA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[DestinHurricane]

Have 2 hurricanes ever made landfall within 24 hours of each other? This could be history in the making.

[fci]

Seems like it might be time to re-read about Fujiwhara Effect.
According to the 11:00 AM Discussions; Laura and Marco would be at 27.0-83.4 and 28.0-94.0 at 120 hours. That is about 800 miles apart and both in the GOM.
All kinds of theories on the effects on each other when within 900 miles of each other.
If they get close, do they orbit?
If they get really close (so highly unlikely) do they merge?
Or, does the one to the East (13) get shunted to the North from its West heading?
This situation would be rather unprecedented, especially near landmasses; but this is 2020 where nothing seems to make much sense........

[drewschmaltz]

Wow, I can't wait to watch the forecasts develop for thirteen and fourteen. So dynamic.

[CronkPSU]

Seems like it might be time to re-read about Fujiwhara Effect.
According to the 11:00 AM Discussions; Laura and Marco would be at 27.0-83.4 and 28.0-94.0 at 120 hours. That is about 800 miles apart and both in the GOM.
All kinds of theories on the effects on each other when within 900 miles of each other.
If they get close, do they orbit?
If they get really close (so highly unlikely) do they merge?
Or, does the one to the East (13) get shunted to the North from its West heading?
This situation would be rather unprecedented, especially near landmasses; but this is 2020 where nothing seems to make much sense........

Beat me to the F word...lol

[eastcoastFL]

Interesting they did not shift track northward tcvn is north of them likely due to models flip flopping to much. If nothing changes I expect a northern shift in track.

It did shift north. " This is
slightly north of the previous advisory, and not far from the GFS
ensemble mean."

Landfall is key largo through black water sound and then across extreme sw Florida. Puts homestead and Miami in the north east quad.

[SFLcane]

 https://twitter.com/WeatherProf/status/1296468931138510849

[chaser1]

Wow, I can't wait to watch the forecasts develop for thirteen and fourteen. So dynamic.

Yep, this is quickly evolving from Tropical cyclone stuff.... into Tropical cyclone stuff on crack. Oh yeah, AND Nana will probably be off the shelf well before sniffing Sept 1st yet.

[sma10]

I am anxiously awaiting data to continue to pour into all dynamic and global models over the course of today and tonight. I have to believe that TD14 will play a greater influence on the environment over the N. Caribbean, Greater Antilles, and the GOM. While nuanced differences might slightly allow TD13 to gain slight latitude on approach to S. Florida.... my greater concern might be the improved mid level Relative Humidly over/near the Florida Straits as a result of all the pumped in moisture streaming north and northeast from TD14's broader envelope. This may filter out a great deal of SAL conditions presently forecast to hamper TD13 from deepening further. RI may really be on the table for TD13 if upper conditions permit.

Agreed. And at a certain point these systems will only be about 600 miles apart. In the tropical world, that's pretty close

[Weatherboy1]

It's obviously still some time away from any potential impact on land. But the models are remarkably tightly clustered through Day 3.5/4 on TD 13. Increases my confidence substantially that this will be a close call for Florida … though too early to say if recurve east of/straight over peninsula going to happen - or if it could pass over the Keys/through strait and into the Gulf instead.

[ScottNAtlanta]

Seems like it might be time to re-read about Fujiwhara Effect.
According to the 11:00 AM Discussions; Laura and Marco would be at 27.0-83.4 and 28.0-94.0 at 120 hours. That is about 800 miles apart and both in the GOM.
All kinds of theories on the effects on each other when within 900 miles of each other.
If they get close, do they orbit?
If they get really close (so highly unlikely) do they merge?
Or, does the one to the East (13) get shunted to the North from its West heading?
This situation would be rather unprecedented, especially near landmasses; but this is 2020 where nothing seems to make much sense........

Or does 13 slow down due to the interaction. It cant plow straight into high pressure. It will probably cause it to slow down

[Aric Dunn]

An earlier SSMIS overpass was very
helpful in locating the center of what appears to be a small
circulation. A very recent ASCAT overpass has also revealed a
small circulation that is weak on the southeastern side, but with
winds near tropical storm strength to the north of the center.

Interesting section. If they are talking about the recent METOP-B pass, then I don't really agree with the statement of the pass revealing a circulation near 16N 52W. Only a few northerly winds, and most of them are flagged. Will have to wait for recon..

https://i.imgur.com/vmQKdzY.jpg

Assuming it is because of the ambiguities again. the sudden right angle shift in the SW quad clearly does not quite work in a physical sense.

and if you look at the ambiguities you can close of the circ.

[wxman57]

Red crosshairs are at 16N/52W. I'm not seeing anything there on satellite or in the scatterometer data. Not sure what NHC is looking at. This system doesn't look to be approaching TS strength. I suppose it COULD have TS winds as an open wave. The wave axis appears to be west of that buoy.

[NDG]

An earlier SSMIS overpass was very
helpful in locating the center of what appears to be a small
circulation. A very recent ASCAT overpass has also revealed a
small circulation that is weak on the southeastern side, but with
winds near tropical storm strength to the north of the center.

Interesting section. If they are talking about the recent METOP-B pass, then I don't really agree with the statement of the pass revealing a circulation near 16N 52W. Only a few northerly winds, and most of them are flagged. Will have to wait for recon..

https://i.imgur.com/vmQKdzY.jpg

Assuming it is because of the ambiguities again. the sudden right angle shift in the SW quad clearly does not quite work in a physical sense.

and if you look at the ambiguities you can close of the circ.

And with the system moving WNW that fast, ASCAT will have trouble finding much NW & westerly winds on the SW & southern quadrants, and to make it worst to catch them the LLC is still fairly close to the ITCZ.

[ScottNAtlanta]

Looks like the LLC on the northern end is racing west. If that continues it is going to outrun the mid level convection

[DestinHurricane]

What is hindering 13 right now? Conditions look pretty favorable.

[Sanibel]

The models are probably keeping 13 down in intensity because of the proximity of the now-forming Marco...

13 has a well-formed surface rotation...

[wxman57]

What is hindering 13 right now? Conditions look pretty favorable.

It's ingesting quite a bit of dry air.

[HurricaneEnzo]

What is hindering 13 right now? Conditions look pretty favorable.

SAL, fast movement.

[wxman57]

High-res visible indicates maybe a swirl near 16.5N/52.4W. Tiny

[Evil Jeremy]

High-res visible indicates maybe a swirl near 16.5N/52.4W. Tiny

A swirl for ants.