ATL: MARCO - Remnants - Discussion

[mpic]

If both depressions verify, will this be the first time for 2 storms at once?

[Aric Dunn]

Vertically stacked with the LLC.. towers wrapping around..

expect the unexpected in the tropics..

[wx98]

NHC is explicitly forecasting two TCs in the gulf at the same time. Don't think I've ever seen that before.

Bonnie and Charley 2004 were the closest I could find on a quick search. Bonnie moved NE across the Gulf and hit FL on August 12, then Charley crossed Cuba and struck FL gulf coast on August 13. Although technically they weren’t in the Gulf at the exact same time.

[aspen]

11AM discussion mentioned hurricane strength as a possibility before the potential Yucatan landfall.

“Once the depression slows down during the next 24-36 hours, environmental conditions appear ideal for strengthening. The magnitude of vertical shear is expected to be less than 10 kt for at least the next 2 days, while the system will be moving over the deep, warm waters of the northwest Caribbean Sea, where sea surface temperatures are 29-30 degrees Celsius. Given these conditions, some of the intensity guidance actually appears more muted than I would have expected, and I have therefore elected to closely follow the SHIPS and LGEM models, which are near the upper end of the guidance envelope. It is possible the depression could be near or at hurricane strength when it approaches the Yucatán Peninsula of Mexico in 2-3 days.”

[Tireman4]

Well, as Srain states, this raises an eyebrow. All interests from Tampico to New Orleans should closely monitor this storm. Many variables will come into play as this system moves NW. As always, make sure your kits are stocked and you have your contingency plans set.

[ElectricStorm]

11AM discussion mentioned hurricane strength as a possibility before the potential Yucatan landfall.

“Once the depression slows down during the next 24-36 hours, environmental conditions appear ideal for strengthening. The magnitude of vertical shear is expected to be less than 10 kt for at least the next 2 days, while the system will be moving over the deep, warm waters of the northwest Caribbean Sea, where sea surface temperatures are 29-30 degrees Celsius. Given these conditions, some of the intensity guidance actually appears more muted than I would have expected, and I have therefore elected to closely follow the SHIPS and LGEM models, which are near the upper end of the guidance envelope. It is possible the depression could be near or at hurricane strength when it approaches the Yucatán Peninsula of Mexico in 2-3 days.”

2-3 days of travelling over those warm waters... Yikes

[GCANE]

The leading edge convection has degraded the theta-e ridge somewhat.
Chances for RI have been reduced at the moment.
However, it is moistening the dryslot. Steady intensification very likely.

[SoupBone]

The way it's looking right now reminds me a lot of Hurricane Earl 2016.

https://i.imgur.com/JJ7eXcT.png
https://i.imgur.com/ErPa66S.png

Earl buried himself into Mexico, never to be heard from again. I don't think that's being discussed at all.

[BYG Jacob]

A stacked, deepening storm heading into the gulf in August. That’s, uh lemme check my notes here, bad. Really bad news

[Do_For_Love]

Didn't expect this to be a TD yet. The tropics are hot

[aspen]

11AM discussion mentioned hurricane strength as a possibility before the potential Yucatan landfall.

“Once the depression slows down during the next 24-36 hours, environmental conditions appear ideal for strengthening. The magnitude of vertical shear is expected to be less than 10 kt for at least the next 2 days, while the system will be moving over the deep, warm waters of the northwest Caribbean Sea, where sea surface temperatures are 29-30 degrees Celsius. Given these conditions, some of the intensity guidance actually appears more muted than I would have expected, and I have therefore elected to closely follow the SHIPS and LGEM models, which are near the upper end of the guidance envelope. It is possible the depression could be near or at hurricane strength when it approaches the Yucatán Peninsula of Mexico in 2-3 days.”

2-3 days of travelling over those warm waters... Yikes

Yeah...I’m getting the feeling that the models are going to be very, very far behind TD14’s actual intensity within the next 60-72 hours. A hurricane is probable.

[Laminar]

The way it's looking right now reminds me a lot of Hurricane Earl 2016.

https://i.imgur.com/JJ7eXcT.png
https://i.imgur.com/ErPa66S.png

Earl buried himself into Mexico, never to be heard from again. I don't think that's being discussed at all.

Belize/Mex actually, and it cost us millions. We are most certainly discussing the similarities and potential at this point.

[SoupBone]

A stacked, deepening storm heading into the gulf in August. That’s, uh lemme check my notes here, bad. Really bad news

Another point, if the strengthening continues, and with a strong trough heading into the GoM, we might see additional east shifts in the models.

[MississippiWx]

This has the potential to ramp up pretty quickly. Great environment for strengthening currently. The slowEr movement and deep warm waters will only help.

Unfortunately for my area, a stronger storm is more than likely going to come north. If it doesn’t strengthen much, then a weaker TC into South TX or even Mexico is possible.

[SoupBone]

The way it's looking right now reminds me a lot of Hurricane Earl 2016.

https://i.imgur.com/JJ7eXcT.png
https://i.imgur.com/ErPa66S.png

Earl buried himself into Mexico, never to be heard from again. I don't think that's being discussed at all.

Belize/Mex actually, and it cost us millions. We are most certainly discussing the similarities and potential at this point.

I'm hoping it stays minimal as it crosses the Yucatan. What is Belize's topograhy like, fairly flat lands?

[Steve]

If both depressions verify, will this be the first time for 2 storms at once?

Most I can recall was 5 or 6 at once. If you meant in the Gulf, someone addressed that. There have been a couple of other occasions in the past, but it's abnormal. Either one will be weak or in the case of Fay/remnants of Eduoard where Eduoard had degenerated, Fay just absorbed its remnants. I'll never forget as Fay was passing by to the south and Eduoard's remains passed through in the matter of an hour or two and flooded downtown New Orleans streets pretty good.

[SoupBone]

So how would the interaction between the two systems play out if they are so close? Wouldn't they limit each other's potential or aid it?

[aspen]

TD14 has almost everything going for it — decent structure already, a low shear environment with good outflow due to a nicely placed anticyclone, and 2-3 days over deep 29-30C waters. However, there does appear to be a bit of dry air lingering around, which could try to slow intensification.

My unprofessional guess for peak intensity before making landfall in the Yucatán is 70-80 kt. It’s clear that the models are once again behind, but as of right now, I don’t think we’ll see significant RI. My stance could change depending on what recon finds later today.

[stormlover2013]

Tropical Depression # 14 forms in the NW Caribbean Sea

A threat to the NW Gulf of Mexico early to mid next week.

Persons along the TX coast should closely monitor the progress of this system. Review hurricane plans and be prepared to enact those plans this weekend.

Discussion:
Visible satellite images indicate that weak westerly winds have developed on the southern side of the well defined tropical wave axis over the NW Caribbean Sea and that a tropical depression has formed. Satellite images also show the formation of scattered to numerous thunderstorms across the northern semi-circle of the circulation and the gradual formation of curved banding. The depression is moving toward the west/WNW

Track:
The depression is moving toward the northwest Caribbean Sea and this general W to WNW motion is expected to continue for the next 24-36 hours bringing the system toward the Yucatan. Over the weekend the system turn toward the NW around the southwestern side of a building sub-tropical ridge over the southwest Atlantic Ocean and move into the south-central Gulf of Mexico. Forecast models are starting to come into better agreement with a continued track of the system toward the NW Gulf of Mexico by early next week as a weakness remains near the TX coast and high pressure builds westward from the SW Atlantic.

Intensity:
Conditions are favorable for additional intensification over the western Caribbean Sea over the next 24-36 hours before the system interacts with the Yucatan. As 14 moves into the Gulf of Mexico, the current strong southwesterly shear on the SE/E side of the large scale trough over the NW Gulf will begin to subside and conditions will become increasing favorable for development. It is uncertain how quickly the shear will relax and if dry air near the TX coast could become entrained into the circulation, but overall conditions over the Gulf of Mexico will be increasing favorable for development.

From Jeff Linder

[GCANE]

Cirrus radial fingers rapidly developing.
I guess its grabbing the PV Streamer I mentioned earlier.