ATL: MARCO - Remnants - Discussion

[Steve]

So how would the interaction between the two systems play out if they are so close? Wouldn't they limit each other's potential or aid it?

Remains to be seen IMHO. There is some distance between them. Ideally for both of them to intensify, the forerunner (14) would be NW of the one behind (13). That way there are some eddy areas where there would not be that much shear and could even been enhancing conditions. We'll have to see if one is moving faster, what latitudes etc. Saturday-ish.

I did get to the store this morning to grab some waters, snacks and some non-perishables. We have time to get more, but I wanted to work on restocking a few cases of water and stuff like that which would likely run out quick if there are runs on the groceries.

[Laminar]

Earl buried himself into Mexico, never to be heard from again. I don't think that's being discussed at all.

Belize/Mex actually, and it cost us millions. We are most certainly discussing the similarities and potential at this point.

I'm hoping it stays minimal as it crosses the Yucatan. What is Belize's topograhy like, fairly flat lands?

Elevation on most of the Cayes is no more than 3ft. Mainland get higher and doesn’t really pick up massive surge, but the rivers flood and the surge effects go the opposite way, flooding the coastal areas from both sides.

I live on Ambergris Caye. At about 2ft elevation. Currently about 10,000 folks estimated here. Under full COVID lockdown...nobody’s allowed to move. Prepping is tough.

So we are hyper vigilant of small changes that can bring this storm further west.

We moved boats to the leeward side of the island yesterday and beached them.

[GCANE]

Obviously the models are severely constipated.
A major colon cleansing is in order.

[Tireman4]

I wonder...wonder...what Wxman 57 is thinking about TD 14....he needs to answer his phone...lol

[St0rmTh0r]

Well this is turning into quite a situation with two strengthening storms headed towards land are the same time. This storm is looking equally as dangerous. This will be sitting in bath tub waters for days before crossing land and entering the extremely warm Gulf. Environment looks favorable throughout most of the forecast. This ain't good

[GCANE]

Yup, the PV Streamer grabbed it.
Very likely Cat 1 within 24 to 48 hrs.
Hate to say it, but with the very real possibility of the degradation of the Rossby Wave in the GoM, a couple notches higher in intensity once it gets in the GoM is becoming very likely.
All just MHO of course.

[HurricaneEnzo]

Swirl alert. Clouds cleared out enough to see what is going on underneath.


https://tropicaltidbits.com/sat/satloop ... roduct=vis

[Shell Mound]

This has the potential to ramp up pretty quickly. Great environment for strengthening currently. The slowEr movement and deep warm waters will only help.

Unfortunately for my area, a stronger storm is more than likely going to come north. If it doesn’t strengthen much, then a weaker TC into South TX or even Mexico is possible.

Given current trends, TD Fourteen is likely to become Laura first instead of TD Thirteen. I expect a tropical storm by tomorrow morning at the latest.

[Ivanhater]

Yep, I thought this was the one to watch. If yall remember. The gfs was showing something getting going in the NW Caribbean a week and a half ago. Of course it didn't have the specifics but did see the overall pattern.

[lrak]

I am ready for it to stop looking like a football laying on the ground. If it continues to look "squashed" then it may travel more West? Hanna was "squashed" and it made landfall further south than the NHC track. When will it start to look like a football ready for kick off? Best way an opinion poster can manage to explain

[GCANE]

Higher CAPE building in the dryslot.
Up to 3000

[Steve]

MJO is working magic again. Phase 8 to 1 this time.
https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/ ... r_wh.shtml

[lrak]

I am ready for it to stop looking like a football laying on the ground. If it continues to look "squashed" then it may travel more West? Hanna was "squashed" and it made landfall further south than the NHC track. When will it start to look like a football ready for kick off? Best way an opinion poster can manage to explain

lrak the opinion poster!!!

[hurricaneCW]

Much more favorable environment for this one especially the dry air situation which is still problematic in the MDR.

Very favorable MJO now entering western Caribbean will help bigly. Models may really ramp this up soon.

Only negating factors are land interaction and possibly shear once it nears gulf states.

[xironman]

Interesting, this could stall on the LA coast if TD 13 starts to make it do a cyclonic loop. GFS hints at it.

[tailgater]

Interesting, this could stall on the LA coast if TD 13 starts to make it do a cyclonic loop. GFS hints at it.

Thanks but no thanks she or he is not invited, much less an extended stay.

[GCANE]

Amazing how fast that PV Streamer is digging south.
I am starting to really doubt TD13 makes it past this.
TD14 could be the only one in the GoM.

[GCANE]

Theta E backing off to the NW but increasing around the CoC.

[Aric Dunn]

Yikes.. the llc is very clear now co-located with that MLC and curved band developing around the center..

all the makings of possible RI..

[La Breeze]

Interesting, this could stall on the LA coast if TD 13 starts to make it do a cyclonic loop. GFS hints at it.

Thanks but no thanks she or he is not invited, much less an extended stay.

Agreed - she or he is not welcomed here either.