ATL: LAURA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[Hurricaneman]

This may have multiple vortices, May have temporarily stopped being a TD

[bqknight]

Even the bullish models (HWRF/HMON) don’t have this really developing much more until Saturday as it passes the Leewards.

[Aric Dunn]

So far it is doing essentially what the HWRF and HMON have be showing. with the llc ( which is closed) moving quickly wnw then bending back more westerly for a short time... pretty easy to see the llc partially exposed doing a curved arc motion.

[Blown Away]

So far it is doing essentially what the HWRF and HMON have be showing. with the llc ( which is closed) moving quickly wnw then bending back more westerly for a short time... pretty easy to see the llc partially exposed doing a curved arc motion.

Look right?

[Aric Dunn]

So far it is doing essentially what the HWRF and HMON have be showing. with the llc ( which is closed) moving quickly wnw then bending back more westerly for a short time... pretty easy to see the llc partially exposed doing a curved arc motion.

https://i.imgur.com/dWQ6KCg.gif
https://i.imgur.com/YBS1liX.jpg

Look right?

yeppers..

[Sanibel]

It has a well-developed circulation...Not good for something headed for the bomber slot above the islands during seasonal prime time...

The obvious question is how much does the future Marco inhibit it?...

[Miami Storm Tracker]

Eastcoast
Please do not wish that on me. I have houses in both Miami and key Largo, I would much rather deal with it here in Miami.

[ColdMiser123]

How strong TD 14 gets and how far north it goes will be important for the eventual track of TD 13 should it go into the Gulf, since a stronger, farther north TD 14 will erode the western edge of the ridge sooner, and cause TD 13 to turn to the north faster.

[Aric Dunn]

So far it is doing essentially what the HWRF and HMON have be showing. with the llc ( which is closed) moving quickly wnw then bending back more westerly for a short time... pretty easy to see the llc partially exposed doing a curved arc motion.

https://i.imgur.com/dWQ6KCg.gif
https://i.imgur.com/YBS1liX.jpg

Look right?

yeppers..

so, for instance, the 00z HWRF had the center for 18z today at 16.2N 52.66 W

Currently, it is roughly at 16.71 N 52.24W at 16Z

that is pretty darn close.. this motion was forecast

[Hurricaneman]

It has a well-developed circulation...Not good for something headed for the bomber slot above the islands during seasonal prime time...

The obvious question is how much does the future Marco inhibit it?...

I wouldn’t be so sure this will be Laura, looks like that’s going to 14 instead but to answer the question this may get caught in the outflow causing shear

[gatorcane]

As I have been saying for days, there is alot of dry air (SAL) around not to mention look at the dry air (orange and now even reds showing up so really dry air) ahead WV loop link below. Also some SW shear from the UL to the north will also help inhibit any significant development for the next couple of days. Why NHC is not mentioning these inhibiting factors I am not sure. Conditions will improve as the depression moves north of Hispaniola and into the Bahamas though. I expect a possible increase in organization there but too many inhibiting factors to suggest a major hurricane approaching South Florida still looking at things. A tropical storm or low-end hurricane might be possible, I think the NHC forecast on intensity looks about right for now.

Summary of inhibiting factors:

1) TD moving too quickly
2) Dry air issues from the SAL which will continue as TD moves west into the Bahamas. This becomes particularly problematic if a good core hasn't developed.
3) SW shear from ULL impacting any kind of core developing over the next couple of days.

http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis ... display=24

[Hurricaneman]

So far it is doing essentially what the HWRF and HMON have be showing. with the llc ( which is closed) moving quickly wnw then bending back more westerly for a short time... pretty easy to see the llc partially exposed doing a curved arc motion.

https://i.imgur.com/dWQ6KCg.gif
https://i.imgur.com/YBS1liX.jpg

Look right?

Looks like some NE shear has slightly decoupled 13

[AutoPenalti]

As I have been saying for days, there is alot of dry air (SAL) around not to mention look at the dry air (orange and now even reds showing up so really dry air) ahead WV loop link below. Also some SW shear from the UL to the north will also help inhibit any significant development for the next couple of days. Why NHC is not mentioning these inhibiting factors I am not sure. Conditions will improve as the depression moves north of Hispaniola and into the Bahamas though. I expect a possible increase in organization there but too many inhibiting factors to suggest a major hurricane approaching South Florida still looking at things. A tropical storm or low-end hurricane might be possible, I think the NHC forecast on intensity looks about right for now.

Summary of inhibiting factors:

1) TD moving too quickly
2) Dry air issues from the SAL which will continue as TD moves west into the Bahamas. This becomes particularly problematic if a good core hasn't developed.
3) SW shear from ULL impacting any kind of core developing over the next couple of days.

http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis ... display=24

Every single thing you said so far has gone against what NHC is saying on their outlook.

Almost like they aren’t putting all their weight on models...

[HuracanMaster]

Wow, I can't wait to watch the forecasts develop for thirteen and fourteen. So dynamic.

Yep, this is quickly evolving from Tropical cyclone stuff.... into Tropical cyclone stuff on crack. Oh yeah, AND Nana will probably be off the shelf well before sniffing Sept 1st yet.

Nana , what a cute name for a possible monster...

Sent from my SM-G975U using Tapatalk

[eastcoastFL]

Eastcoast
Please do not wish that on me. I have houses in both Miami and key Largo, I would much rather deal with it here in Miami.

I was just repeating the nhc 5 day. I hope it goes out to sea. Largo is my favorite key. Let’s hope if anything it’s a weak storm

[Miami Storm Tracker]

Totally agree
Unfortunately at this time it is not looking like the most likely outcome.

[SFLcane]

Cloud tops warming this afternoon and it appears decoupled. Not very impressive at all. Would not surprise me if recon can’t close off a circulation later this afternoon.

[AutoPenalti]

Aric showing no love for TD 13, at least because I haven’t seen him post within the past couple of hours

[Aric Dunn]

Aric showing no love for TD 13, at least because I haven’t seen him post within the past couple of hours

lol scroll up..

[tiger_deF]

Aric showing no love for TD 13, at least because I haven’t seen him post within the past couple of hours

Maybe he's Dunn for the day