ATL: MARCO - Remnants - Discussion

[shiny-pebble]

I'm kinda surprised this thread is getting a lot less attention... I know 13 is threatening Florida but this one has a very optimal environment and is close to land. Could surprise some.

Convection firing off closer to the center. Could help tighten it some more

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[tailgater]

Amazing how fast that PV Streamer is digging south.
I am starting to really doubt TD13 makes it past this.
TD14 could be the only one in the GoM.

https://i.imgur.com/6m4DVu6.gif

Let’s hope so I can’t imagine the chaos on I -10 If the Houston area and Pensacola area were both being threatened. The virus to boot. Luckily that is Highly Unlikely

[supercane4867]

Imagine how comical would it be if TD13 and TD14 pull a Pat/Ruth combo in the Gulf of Mexico.

[youtube]https://youtu.be/5EP65hv9hlw[/youtube]

[GCANE]

Unusually high amount of helicity with the towers NW of the CoC.
Could pack a big punch on landfall in the Yucatan even if a strong TS or Cat 1.
Cancun and the resorts south should be watching very carefully.

[StruThiO]

one thing for sure is this is not the caribbean of recent memory. outflow expanding in all quadrants

[Tireman4]

Amazing how fast that PV Streamer is digging south.
I am starting to really doubt TD13 makes it past this.
TD14 could be the only one in the GoM.

https://i.imgur.com/6m4DVu6.gif

Let’s hope so I can’t imagine the chaos on I -10 If the Houston area and Pensacola area were both being threatened. The virus to boot. Luckily that is Highly Unlikely[/quote

We have been around these parts a long time. Never ever say highly unlikely..because you never know. Long ways to go. Lots of model runs to viee and reon to sift ]through.

[Aric Dunn]

Recon about to start decending... Im betting on Laura..

[Tireman4]

Amazing how fast that PV Streamer is digging south.
I am starting to really doubt TD13 makes it past this.
TD14 could be the only one in the GoM.

https://i.imgur.com/6m4DVu6.gif

Let’s hope so I can’t imagine the chaos on I -10 If the Houston area and Pensacola area were both being threatened. The virus to boot. Luckily that is Highly Unlikely[/quote

We have been around these parts a long time. Never ever say highly unlikely..because you never know. Long ways to go. Lots of model runs to viee and reon to sift ]through.

lol...

[hurricanehunter69]

NW Carb doing its magic....97L likely to be a depression/storm soon. Going to be an interesting few days for us GOM people with the possibility of two TC in the Gulf......MGC

Future Laura is in the central Caribbean. I thought for sure this being 2020 and us all seemingly living out an episode of the twilight zone...that 97L was gonna go ahead and develop in the graveyard. Anyway I digress. NW CARIBBEAN MAGIC. Oh yes the NW Caribb awaits! Might I remind everyone of just a few examples like Gilbert and Wilma. This storm is gonna slow down and spend 48 hours over the magic water......oh boy! Expect intensity estimates to start shooting up like a hot air balloon.

[Senobia]

11AM discussion mentioned hurricane strength as a possibility before the potential Yucatan landfall.

“Once the depression slows down during the next 24-36 hours, environmental conditions appear ideal for strengthening. The magnitude of vertical shear is expected to be less than 10 kt for at least the next 2 days, while the system will be moving over the deep, warm waters of the northwest Caribbean Sea, where sea surface temperatures are 29-30 degrees Celsius. Given these conditions, some of the intensity guidance actually appears more muted than I would have expected, and I have therefore elected to closely follow the SHIPS and LGEM models, which are near the upper end of the guidance envelope. It is possible the depression could be near or at hurricane strength when it approaches the Yucatán Peninsula of Mexico in 2-3 days.”

2-3 days of travelling over those warm waters... Yikes

But there's going to be lots of interaction with mountainous land in the Yucatan so that will have lots of bearing on how well the storm holds together or doesn't.

[tailgater]

We can also watch this buoy, it’s at sea level so it should give a true reading of winds and surface pressure

Conditions at 42057 as of
(12:40 pm EST)
1740 GMT on 08/20/2020:
Unit of Measure: Time Zone:
Click on the graph icon in the table below to see a time series plot of the last five days of that observation.

5-day plot - Wind Direction Wind Direction (WDIR): E ( 80 deg true )
5-day plot - Wind Speed Wind Speed (WSPD): 13.6 kts
5-day plot - Wind Gust Wind Gust (GST): 19.4 kts
5-day plot - Atmospheric Pressure Atmospheric Pressure (PRES): 29.84 in
5-day plot - Air Temperature Air Temperature (ATMP): 82.0 °F
5-day plot - Water Temperature Water Temperature (WTMP): 84.9 °F
5-day plot - Dew Point Dew Point (DEWP): 76.6 °F
5-day plot - Heat Index Heat Index (HEAT): 90.0 °F
5-day plot - Wind Speed at 10 Meters Wind Speed at 10 meters (WSPD10M): 15.5 kts
5-day plot - Wind Speed at 10 Meters Wind Speed at 20 meters (WSPD20M): 15.5 kts
5-day plot - Wind Speed, Wind Gust and Atmospheric Pressure Combined plot of Wind Speed, Gust, and Air Pressure

[ElectricStorm]

“Once the depression slows down during the next 24-36 hours, environmental conditions appear ideal for strengthening. The magnitude of vertical shear is expected to be less than 10 kt for at least the next 2 days, while the system will be moving over the deep, warm waters of the northwest Caribbean Sea, where sea surface temperatures are 29-30 degrees Celsius. Given these conditions, some of the intensity guidance actually appears more muted than I would have expected, and I have therefore elected to closely follow the SHIPS and LGEM models, which are near the upper end of the guidance envelope. It is possible the depression could be near or at hurricane strength when it approaches the Yucatán Peninsula of Mexico in 2-3 days.”

2-3 days of travelling over those warm waters... Yikes

But there's going to be lots of interaction with mountainous land in the Yucatan so that will have lots of bearing on how well the storm holds together or doesn't.

I meant before it reaches the Yucatan, it's going right over that bathwater

[TallyTracker]

Amazing how fast that PV Streamer is digging south.
I am starting to really doubt TD13 makes it past this.
TD14 could be the only one in the GoM.

https://i.imgur.com/6m4DVu6.gif

Let’s hope so I can’t imagine the chaos on I -10 If the Houston area and Pensacola area were both being threatened. The virus to boot. Luckily that is Highly Unlikely

Yeah this setup would really mess up my default evacuation plan to avoid the peninsula evacuees if I ever have to leave. Never thought about synchronized Gulf landfalls...

[Senobia]

Well this is turning into quite a situation with two strengthening storms headed towards land are the same time. This storm is looking equally as dangerous. This will be sitting in bath tub waters for days before crossing land and entering the extremely warm Gulf. Environment looks favorable throughout most of the forecast. This ain't good

No need for doomsday scenarios yet. Regardless of strength/intensity when/if it gets to the Yucatan, it still has lots of mountainous terrain to deal before getting over Gulf waters.

[HurricaneEnzo]

Convection is quickly filling in on Eastern Half of circulation.

https://tropicaltidbits.com/sat/satloop ... roduct=vis

[Laminar]

Well this is turning into quite a situation with two strengthening storms headed towards land are the same time. This storm is looking equally as dangerous. This will be sitting in bath tub waters for days before crossing land and entering the extremely warm Gulf. Environment looks favorable throughout most of the forecast. This ain't good

No need for doomsday scenarios yet. Regardless of strength/intensity when/if it gets to the Yucatan, it still has lots of mountainous terrain to deal before getting over Gulf waters.

Where would these mountains be located?

[crownweather]

Well this is turning into quite a situation with two strengthening storms headed towards land are the same time. This storm is looking equally as dangerous. This will be sitting in bath tub waters for days before crossing land and entering the extremely warm Gulf. Environment looks favorable throughout most of the forecast. This ain't good

No need for doomsday scenarios yet. Regardless of strength/intensity when/if it gets to the Yucatan, it still has lots of mountainous terrain to deal before getting over Gulf waters.

Ummm, no, the Yucatan Peninsula has a very flat terrain overall.

[hipshot]

A stacked, deepening storm heading into the gulf in August. That’s, uh lemme check my notes here, bad. Really bad news

Another point, if the strengthening continues, and with a strong trough heading into the GoM, we might see additional east shifts in the models.

Where is the trough currently and how long before it will begin to affect the track of TD14?

[Javlin]

The current steering kinda flies in the face of it crossing the YUC?

http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/d ... oom=&time=

[catskillfire51]

The current steering kinda flies in the face of it crossing the YUC?

http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/d ... oom=&time=

GCANE was saying earlier how that rossby wave was supposed to start backing out tomorrow before 14 gets there so maybe that's what NHC is seeing as well.