ATL: LAURA - Models

[sma10]

12z EURO with no development of 13 through 72 hours

Very important to note what the Euro DOES DO. It spins TD 14 up in the GOM pretty significantly. One will thrive, the other one won't.

That logic would hold if the was showing td 13 stronger on previous runs..

because before this it was not developing either of them lol

Aric, for goodness sake what do you think is the deal with the Euro? Is it masterful or out to lunch ?

[Aric Dunn]

Very important to note what the Euro DOES DO. It spins TD 14 up in the GOM pretty significantly. One will thrive, the other one won't.

That logic would hold if the was showing td 13 stronger on previous runs..

because before this it was not developing either of them lol

Aric, for goodness sake what do you think is the deal with the Euro? Is it masterful or out to lunch ?

Million dollar question.. whispers of lack of data to less planes flying..

[ConvergenceZone]

No model is wrong until proven wrong. At some point the ECMWF will have to fall in line with the more aggressive models. If it doesn't soon, it may end up being right all along.

Massive applause. As of now...it's fair to say it is winning.

I agree,The EURO is definitely winning until it’s proved otherwise, and if it wins, it will demand an apology

[chris_fit]

No model is wrong until proven wrong. At some point the ECMWF will have to fall in line with the more aggressive models. If it doesn't soon, it may end up being right all along.

Massive applause. As of now...it's fair to say it is winning.

I agree,The EURO is definitely winning until it’s proved otherwise, and if it wins, it will demand an apology

It is better to ask for forgiveness than permission - So far EURO is doing OK in the short term. As is the GFS really.

[TheProfessor]

The Euro is most definitely not winning, it had to be force fed a closed low. The HWRF has handled this storm the best so far including showing the exposed LLC.

[jlauderdal]

The Euro is most definitely not winning, it had to be force fed a closed low. The HWRF has handled this storm the best so far including showing the exposed LLC.

well lets hope the hwrf winning streak is over and the euro solution takes over

[plasticup]

The Euro is most definitely not winning, it had to be force fed a closed low. The HWRF has handled this storm the best so far including showing the exposed LLC.

Well that's not very comforting.

[plasticup]

That logic would hold if the was showing td 13 stronger on previous runs..

because before this it was not developing either of them lol

Aric, for goodness sake what do you think is the deal with the Euro? Is it masterful or out to lunch ?

Million dollar question.. whispers of lack of data to less planes flying..

Is that likely? Most planes fly the same routes, and there are still planes on every route. How much data do they generate anyway?

Plus the ship data won't have changed.

[Steve]

No model is wrong until proven wrong. At some point the ECMWF will have to fall in line with the more aggressive models. If it doesn't soon, it may end up being right all along.

Massive applause. As of now...it's fair to say it is winning.

I agree,The EURO is definitely winning until it’s proved otherwise, and if it wins, it will demand an apology

Winning at what, finally figuring out there might be two actual systems where they are? Give it the participation trophy I guess.

[DESTRUCTION5]

18z TCVN now comes ashore in WPB vicinity.

[BobHarlem]

Double post somehow, see post below for latest:

[eastcoastFL]

Aric, for goodness sake what do you think is the deal with the Euro? Is it masterful or out to lunch ?

Million dollar question.. whispers of lack of data to less planes flying..

Is that likely? Most planes fly the same routes, and there are still planes on every route. How much data do they generate anyway?

Plus the ship data won't have changed.

Definitely less international flights with Americans still unwelcome in most countries. Plus way less cruise ships which provide a good amount of data also. I’m not sure how much it effects the models but I assume more data is better than less.

[BobHarlem]

18z early model tracks:

TVCN landfall's at Pompano/Boca (Lighthouse Point), and exits to the Gulf at Cedar Key.


18z Intensity:

[eastcoastFL]

18z early model tracks:
https://i.imgur.com/bDJdcl7.gif

18z Intensity:
https://i.imgur.com/Wvzcsg7.png

Looking at the intensity guidance it makes sense why the nhc is going with a weak cat 1

[chris_fit]

18z early model tracks:
https://i.imgur.com/bDJdcl7.gif

18z Intensity:
https://i.imgur.com/Wvzcsg7.png

Looking at the intensity guidance it makes sense why the nhc is going with a weak cat 1

Yup middle of the pack.

[DestinHurricane]

No model is wrong until proven wrong. At some point the ECMWF will have to fall in line with the more aggressive models. If it doesn't soon, it may end up being right all along.

Massive applause. As of now...it's fair to say it is winning.

??? No model is really winning as all of them don't have it intensifying the short term.

[AutoPenalti]

If I'm reading that right, HWRF 18z early intensity model suggests a weaker storm.

[cp79]

No model is wrong until proven wrong. At some point the ECMWF will have to fall in line with the more aggressive models. If it doesn't soon, it may end up being right all along.

Massive applause. As of now...it's fair to say it is winning.

I agree,The EURO is definitely winning until it’s proved otherwise, and if it wins, it will demand an apology

Too many people I disagree with here wanting this to develop and they don’t like models that show it being killed. People won’t admit it, but it’s true. The Euro is the best model in my eyes. It’s right more than others. It’s not 100% perfect but there’s a reason why everyone stops what they’re doing at 2pm to see what they show. I hope it’s spot on here and this thing is nothing more than a wave.

[plasticup]

Million dollar question.. whispers of lack of data to less planes flying..

Is that likely? Most planes fly the same routes, and there are still planes on every route. How much data do they generate anyway?

Plus the ship data won't have changed.

Definitely less international flights with Americans still unwelcome in most countries. Plus way less cruise ships which provide a good amount of data also. I’m not sure how much it effects the models but I assume more data is better than less.

My point is that the data difference between 20 NYC to CDG flights and 2 NYC to CDG flights is basically zero. Every route is still trafficked, even if it is less so.

I'd just be surprised if that was making a difference.

[eastcoastFL]

Is that likely? Most planes fly the same routes, and there are still planes on every route. How much data do they generate anyway?

Plus the ship data won't have changed.

Definitely less international flights with Americans still unwelcome in most countries. Plus way less cruise ships which provide a good amount of data also. I’m not sure how much it effects the models but I assume more data is better than less.

My point is that the data difference between 20 NYC to CDG flights and 2 NYC to CDG flights is basically zero. Every route is still trafficked, even if it is less so.

I'd just be surprised if that was making a difference.

Yah how about flights from Miami to Cape Town or to the islands etc. some islands still have no incoming flights. There are some routes not being flown. Also the absence of cruise ships must have an effect