ATL: MARCO - Remnants - Discussion

[tailgater]

I’m starting to wonder, is this TD closed off? I certainly thought the coc was farther north. Probably a mid level Vort is what I was following.

[GCANE]

I’m starting to wonder, is this TD closed off? I certainly thought the coc was farther north. Probably a mid level Vort is what I was following.

I'm seeing a small PV streamer on this. Could be what's holding it back.

[GCANE]

I’m starting to wonder, is this TD closed off? I certainly thought the coc was farther north. Probably a mid level Vort is what I was following.

I'm seeing a small PV streamer on this. Could be what's holding it back.

Its basically the donut hole.
Need some strong towers to flush it out.

[Hammy]

I’m starting to wonder, is this TD closed off? I certainly thought the coc was farther north. Probably a mid level Vort is what I was following.

Closed off at 14N 80W based on ScatSat from this morning so probably a bit west of where the plane's flying.

[CrazyC83]

I’m starting to wonder, is this TD closed off? I certainly thought the coc was farther north. Probably a mid level Vort is what I was following.

Closed off at 14N 80W based on ScatSat from this morning so probably a bit west of where the plane's flying.

If the center is that far south of the official position, that could change the model forecasts dramatically.

[Aric Dunn]

So it looks like its a little tilted. with the deep convection bubbling. that probably wont last long.. but at least it slows down any rapid intensification chances before landfall.

[amawea]

“Once the depression slows down during the next 24-36 hours, environmental conditions appear ideal for strengthening. The magnitude of vertical shear is expected to be less than 10 kt for at least the next 2 days, while the system will be moving over the deep, warm waters of the northwest Caribbean Sea, where sea surface temperatures are 29-30 degrees Celsius. Given these conditions, some of the intensity guidance actually appears more muted than I would have expected, and I have therefore elected to closely follow the SHIPS and LGEM models, which are near the upper end of the guidance envelope. It is possible the depression could be near or at hurricane strength when it approaches the Yucatán Peninsula of Mexico in 2-3 days.”

2-3 days of travelling over those warm waters... Yikes

But there's going to be lots of interaction with mountainous land in the Yucatan so that will have lots of bearing on how well the storm holds together or doesn't.

Sorry Senobia, but there isn't any mountains in the Yucatan.

[Aric Dunn]

really another one of these weird "avoid a center pass" flights.. ugh..

[shiny-pebble]

If the centers more south, does that mean more land interaction or more time over water?

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[wxman57]

It may not have a circulation, either. That rotation could be aloft.

[lrak]

I’m starting to wonder, is this TD closed off? I certainly thought the coc was farther north. Probably a mid level Vort is what I was following.

Closed off at 14N 80W based on ScatSat from this morning so probably a bit west of where the plane's flying.

If the center is that far south of the official position, that could change the model forecasts dramatically.

ACK!!! hope it gets a haircut in the GOM then

[MGC]

If the centers more south, does that mean more land interaction or more time over water?

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Likely more time over the Yucatan......MGC

[GCANE]

Hardly any surface pressure gradient.
The PV streamer is definitely hitting it.
Looks like the tower they flew thru was trying to take a bite out of it but wasn't very strong, only 8 mm/hr rain rate.

[Hammy]

So either they avoided the center or we have two entirely mid-level depressions. August is certainly less favorable than July by the looks of things especially with that huge trough in the GoM, despite that giant MJO surge.

[hipshot]

“Once the depression slows down during the next 24-36 hours, environmental conditions appear ideal for strengthening. The magnitude of vertical shear is expected to be less than 10 kt for at least the next 2 days, while the system will be moving over the deep, warm waters of the northwest Caribbean Sea, where sea surface temperatures are 29-30 degrees Celsius. Given these conditions, some of the intensity guidance actually appears more muted than I would have expected, and I have therefore elected to closely follow the SHIPS and LGEM models, which are near the upper end of the guidance envelope. It is possible the depression could be near or at hurricane strength when it approaches the Yucatán Peninsula of Mexico in 2-3 days.”

2-3 days of travelling over those warm waters... Yikes

But there's going to be lots of interaction with mountainous land in the Yucatan so that will have lots of bearing on how well the storm holds together or doesn't.

I thought most of the Yucatan was pretty flat, maybe not.

[Hammy]

2-3 days of travelling over those warm waters... Yikes

But there's going to be lots of interaction with mountainous land in the Yucatan so that will have lots of bearing on how well the storm holds together or doesn't.

I thought most of the Yucatan was pretty flat, maybe not.

Depends on where--northern part is pretty flat but southern (once you get closer to Guatemala) has some mountains close to Cuba's elevation.

[Kazmit]

2-3 days of travelling over those warm waters... Yikes

But there's going to be lots of interaction with mountainous land in the Yucatan so that will have lots of bearing on how well the storm holds together or doesn't.

I thought most of the Yucatan was pretty flat, maybe not.

I'm not sure what "mountainous" land it will be tracking over unless it heads way to the left.

[aspen]

Hardly any surface pressure gradient.
The PV streamer is definitely hitting it.
Looks like the tower they flew thru was trying to take a bite out of it but wasn't very strong, only 8 mm/hr rain rate.


https://i.imgur.com/bFS4pB2.png

https://i.imgur.com/NbTen1G.png

What is a PV streamer?

[Hurricaneman]

Hardly any surface pressure gradient.
The PV streamer is definitely hitting it.
Looks like the tower they flew thru was trying to take a bite out of it but wasn't very strong, only 8 mm/hr rain rate.


https://i.imgur.com/bFS4pB2.png

https://i.imgur.com/NbTen1G.png

What is a PV streamer?

Polar vortex streamer

[Kingarabian]

Hardly any surface pressure gradient.
The PV streamer is definitely hitting it.
Looks like the tower they flew thru was trying to take a bite out of it but wasn't very strong, only 8 mm/hr rain rate.


https://i.imgur.com/bFS4pB2.png

https://i.imgur.com/NbTen1G.png

What is a PV streamer?

Polar vortex streamer

Potential vorticity streamers
http://www.atmos.albany.edu/student/ppa ... ch_phd.php