ATL: LAURA - Models

[Jr0d]

Too many people I disagree with here wanting this to develop and they don’t like models that show it being killed. People won’t admit it, but it’s true. The Euro is the best model in my eyes. It’s right more than others. It’s not 100% perfect but there’s a reason why everyone stops what they’re doing at 2pm to see what they show. I hope it’s spot on here and this thing is nothing more than a wave.

Given what the models are showing upper level wise when the storm is north of Hispaniola and beyond, I have a difficult time buying into this thing not becoming a significant storm then.

The only potential inhibiting factor will be what TD 14 does and it's outflow potentially causing shear.

Remember how poorly the EURO handled Hanna.

[eastcoastFL]

Massive applause. As of now...it's fair to say it is winning.

I agree,The EURO is definitely winning until it’s proved otherwise, and if it wins, it will demand an apology

Too many people I disagree with here wanting this to develop and they don’t like models that show it being killed. People won’t admit it, but it’s true. The Euro is the best model in my eyes. It’s right more than others. It’s not 100% perfect but there’s a reason why everyone stops what they’re doing at 2pm to see what they show. I hope it’s spot on here and this thing is nothing more than a wave.

I’d agree if the euro picked up on the genesis or if there were any good reason why the euro keeps it as a wave. But there doesn’t seem to be one and that’s why people aren’t buying it. Not because of wishing, because it just doesn’t make any sense so far. I have zero interest in getting a hurricane but I need to understand something to accept it and I don’t understand what the euro sees.

[cp79]

I agree,The EURO is definitely winning until it’s proved otherwise, and if it wins, it will demand an apology

Too many people I disagree with here wanting this to develop and they don’t like models that show it being killed. People won’t admit it, but it’s true. The Euro is the best model in my eyes. It’s right more than others. It’s not 100% perfect but there’s a reason why everyone stops what they’re doing at 2pm to see what they show. I hope it’s spot on here and this thing is nothing more than a wave.

I’d agree if the euro picked up on the genesis or if there were any good reason why the euro keeps it as a wave. But there doesn’t seem to be one and that’s why people aren’t buying it. Not because of wishing, because it just doesn’t make any sense so far. I have zero interest in getting a hurricane but I need to understand something to accept it and I don’t understand what the euro sees.

Two things you need to keep in mind:
1) This system hasn’t developed yet and doesn’t look all that impressive to me. TD14 looks much better. So let’s not write off the Euro yet.
2) Weak systems tend to struggle to pull north and I’m not convinced yet this is going to clear the DR. Its a bit tiny and still weak.

I honestly don’t know what to make of it. I could see it developing later down the road if it avoids land but I have no idea how strong it will be. There’s room for growth in the Gulf unless it gets squashed by TD14’s outflow.

[DestinHurricane]

Too many people I disagree with here wanting this to develop and they don’t like models that show it being killed. People won’t admit it, but it’s true. The Euro is the best model in my eyes. It’s right more than others. It’s not 100% perfect but there’s a reason why everyone stops what they’re doing at 2pm to see what they show. I hope it’s spot on here and this thing is nothing more than a wave.

I’d agree if the euro picked up on the genesis or if there were any good reason why the euro keeps it as a wave. But there doesn’t seem to be one and that’s why people aren’t buying it. Not because of wishing, because it just doesn’t make any sense so far. I have zero interest in getting a hurricane but I need to understand something to accept it and I don’t understand what the euro sees.

Two things you need to keep in mind:
1) This system hasn’t developed yet and doesn’t look all that impressive to me. TD14 looks much better. So let’s not write off the Euro yet.
2) Weak systems tend to struggle to pull north and I’m not convinced yet this is going to clear the DR. Its a bit tiny and still weak.

I honestly don’t know what to make of it. I could see it developing later down the road if it avoids land but I have no idea how strong it will be. There’s room for growth in the Gulf unless it gets squashed by TD14’s outflow.

No model shows strengthening at this time, so let's not write off any model.

[eastcoastFL]

Too many people I disagree with here wanting this to develop and they don’t like models that show it being killed. People won’t admit it, but it’s true. The Euro is the best model in my eyes. It’s right more than others. It’s not 100% perfect but there’s a reason why everyone stops what they’re doing at 2pm to see what they show. I hope it’s spot on here and this thing is nothing more than a wave.

I’d agree if the euro picked up on the genesis or if there were any good reason why the euro keeps it as a wave. But there doesn’t seem to be one and that’s why people aren’t buying it. Not because of wishing, because it just doesn’t make any sense so far. I have zero interest in getting a hurricane but I need to understand something to accept it and I don’t understand what the euro sees.

Two things you need to keep in mind:
1) This system hasn’t developed yet and doesn’t look all that impressive to me. TD14 looks much better. So let’s not write off the Euro yet.
2) Weak systems tend to struggle to pull north and I’m not convinced yet this is going to clear the DR. Its a bit tiny and still weak.

I honestly don’t know what to make of it. I could see it developing later down the road if it avoids land but I have no idea how strong it will be. There’s room for growth in the Gulf unless it gets squashed by TD14’s outflow.

Nobody and no model expects or forecasts it to be impressive now or tonight or even tomorrow morning. We’re still over 24 hrs from anything starting to show improvement.

[toad strangler]

Too many people I disagree with here wanting this to develop and they don’t like models that show it being killed. People won’t admit it, but it’s true. The Euro is the best model in my eyes. It’s right more than others. It’s not 100% perfect but there’s a reason why everyone stops what they’re doing at 2pm to see what they show. I hope it’s spot on here and this thing is nothing more than a wave.

I’d agree if the euro picked up on the genesis or if there were any good reason why the euro keeps it as a wave. But there doesn’t seem to be one and that’s why people aren’t buying it. Not because of wishing, because it just doesn’t make any sense so far. I have zero interest in getting a hurricane but I need to understand something to accept it and I don’t understand what the euro sees.

Two things you need to keep in mind:
1) This system hasn’t developed yet and doesn’t look all that impressive to me. TD14 looks much better. So let’s not write off the Euro yet.
2) Weak systems tend to struggle to pull north and I’m not convinced yet this is going to clear the DR. Its a bit tiny and still weak.

I honestly don’t know what to make of it. I could see it developing later down the road if it avoids land but I have no idea how strong it will be. There’s room for growth in the Gulf unless it gets squashed by TD14’s outflow.

It's ironic. All we hear all off season is how it's the struggling waves that fly through far to the W without developing that are the ones to watch for CONUS problems. But then when the day comes all you hear is how pathetic it looks doing as just described

[Hypercane_Kyle]

ECMWF could very well verify here. Proximity to the PV streamer to its north over the next coming days will be critical. If it ends up a sheared mess, it may not have time to develop in the Bahamas before interaction with 14L inhibits development.

[DestinHurricane]

In my unprofessional opinion, the HWRF has a lot better chance of verifying than the Euro.

[cp79]

I’d agree if the euro picked up on the genesis or if there were any good reason why the euro keeps it as a wave. But there doesn’t seem to be one and that’s why people aren’t buying it. Not because of wishing, because it just doesn’t make any sense so far. I have zero interest in getting a hurricane but I need to understand something to accept it and I don’t understand what the euro sees.

Two things you need to keep in mind:
1) This system hasn’t developed yet and doesn’t look all that impressive to me. TD14 looks much better. So let’s not write off the Euro yet.
2) Weak systems tend to struggle to pull north and I’m not convinced yet this is going to clear the DR. Its a bit tiny and still weak.

I honestly don’t know what to make of it. I could see it developing later down the road if it avoids land but I have no idea how strong it will be. There’s room for growth in the Gulf unless it gets squashed by TD14’s outflow.

Nobody and no model expects or forecasts it to be impressive now or tonight or even tomorrow morning. We’re still over 24 hrs from anything starting to show improvement.

Exactly. I’m just stating that a lot are writing off the Euro just because it doesn’t develop it. They (the Euro) have their reasons for thinking that way and they have a lot better track record than any of us. So let’s see if it plays out. Just because we don’t agree with a model isn’t a reason to simply throw it out. They could be on to something.

[ConvergenceZone]

It’s funny how when some say they think it can get to a high end major, nobody says anything, but when someone says they think may not develop or just be a tropical storm at landfall, they get crucified

[cheezyWXguy]

Two things you need to keep in mind:
1) This system hasn’t developed yet and doesn’t look all that impressive to me. TD14 looks much better. So let’s not write off the Euro yet.
2) Weak systems tend to struggle to pull north and I’m not convinced yet this is going to clear the DR. Its a bit tiny and still weak.

I honestly don’t know what to make of it. I could see it developing later down the road if it avoids land but I have no idea how strong it will be. There’s room for growth in the Gulf unless it gets squashed by TD14’s outflow.

Nobody and no model expects or forecasts it to be impressive now or tonight or even tomorrow morning. We’re still over 24 hrs from anything starting to show improvement.

Exactly. I’m just stating that a lot are writing off the Euro just because it doesn’t develop it. They (the Euro) have their reasons for thinking that way and they have a lot better track record than any of us. So let’s see if it plays out. Just because we don’t agree with a model isn’t a reason to simply throw it out. They could be on to something.

The problem is that even if the end result of the euro is correct, the evolution so far is not. For practical applications, I would consider that a win if it does dissipate, but technically, I’m not so sure.

[AxaltaRacing24]

It’s funny how when some say they think it can get to a high end major, nobody says anything, but when someone says they think may not develop or just be a tropical storm at landfall, they get crucified

it's already developed though. however, it can still stay as a tropical storm in the future.

[cp79]

Nobody and no model expects or forecasts it to be impressive now or tonight or even tomorrow morning. We’re still over 24 hrs from anything starting to show improvement.

Exactly. I’m just stating that a lot are writing off the Euro just because it doesn’t develop it. They (the Euro) have their reasons for thinking that way and they have a lot better track record than any of us. So let’s see if it plays out. Just because we don’t agree with a model isn’t a reason to simply throw it out. They could be on to something.

The problem is that even if the end result of the euro is correct, the evolution so far is not. For practical applications, I would consider that a win if it does dissipate, but technically, I’m not so sure.

Every model changes run to run. The Euro has been consistent in either not developing this or keeping it very weak. That hasn’t changed, and something will give in the end. Either they’re right or they will give in to models like the HWRF and CMC which are building it up. I do think it will get to weak TS status but am not convinced yet it gets anything more than that. Need to see more things play out and this thing needs to get its aft together first. It looks nowhere near as good as TD14.

[DestinHurricane]

Two things you need to keep in mind:
1) This system hasn’t developed yet and doesn’t look all that impressive to me. TD14 looks much better. So let’s not write off the Euro yet.
2) Weak systems tend to struggle to pull north and I’m not convinced yet this is going to clear the DR. Its a bit tiny and still weak.

I honestly don’t know what to make of it. I could see it developing later down the road if it avoids land but I have no idea how strong it will be. There’s room for growth in the Gulf unless it gets squashed by TD14’s outflow.

Nobody and no model expects or forecasts it to be impressive now or tonight or even tomorrow morning. We’re still over 24 hrs from anything starting to show improvement.

Exactly. I’m just stating that a lot are writing off the Euro just because it doesn’t develop it. They (the Euro) have their reasons for thinking that way and they have a lot better track record than any of us. So let’s see if it plays out. Just because we don’t agree with a model isn’t a reason to simply throw it out. They could be on to something.

The Euro does not have a better track record than the NHC. Not even close.

[Blown Away]

It’s funny how when some say they think it can get to a high end major, nobody says anything, but when someone says they think may not develop or just be a tropical storm at landfall, they get crucified

I think the majority, like me, spend alot of time on this board and are just so puzzled how the GFS/EURO which most of us heavily lean on show mostly a wave, while some of guidance models have Major hurricane... It's kinda interesting the dilemma..

[cp79]

I’ll also add that I think the models are wrong on TD14. That thing is getting its act together and concerns me much more. It’s got the size and it’s coming together nicely. We’ll see how land affects it later tomorrow but it’s building into something as we speak. But I’m not buying the weak TS future with that one.

[DestinHurricane]

It’s funny how when some say they think it can get to a high end major, nobody says anything, but when someone says they think may not develop or just be a tropical storm at landfall, they get crucified

Considering the environment it will be in this weekend, that sounds about right.

[SouthFLTropics]

18z ICON so far is much faster than 12z was.

12z to 18z COMPARISON

[TheStormExpert]

It’s funny how when some say they think it can get to a high end major, nobody says anything, but when someone says they think may not develop or just be a tropical storm at landfall, they get crucified

Literally happens to me all the time on here! I know how you feel.

[TheStormExpert]

How do we even know for sure the environment in The Bahamas will be favorable for strengthening? Everyone said the same with Isaias and look what happened.