ATL: MARCO - Remnants - Discussion

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Re: ATL: FOURTEEN - Tropical Depression - Discussion

#581 Postby CrazyC83 » Thu Aug 20, 2020 3:57 pm

With a center at around 14.1N, this could very well make landfall in Honduras or Nicaragua first.
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Re: ATL: FOURTEEN - Tropical Depression - Discussion

#582 Postby Craters » Thu Aug 20, 2020 3:58 pm

Steve wrote:
Kingarabian wrote:
lrak wrote:

So the potential vorticity streamers break up the Rossby wave and helps the storm to strengthen? Or if a Rossby wave is not occurring then they weaken the storm? Thanks....

Would love to answer your question but it's out of my pay grade. Maybe GCANE can answer.


Might want to PM him because he keeps different hours than lots of people, and you never know when he's going to pop up (usually 4:30 or 5:00 am to drop some charts and maps).

I think that "different" is putting it mildly, Steve. I'm starting to think that his clock starts at Dmax and he starts shutting down for the day around Dmin...

But if you do PM him, lrak, let us know what his answer is, okay?
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Re: ATL: FOURTEEN - Tropical Depression - Discussion

#583 Postby Kazmit » Thu Aug 20, 2020 3:59 pm

NHC adjusted their forecast down a bit to a 55kt peak.
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Re: ATL: FOURTEEN - Tropical Depression - Discussion

#584 Postby northjaxpro » Thu Aug 20, 2020 4:00 pm

NDG wrote:It has been a long time since I remember seeing at least a TD with such a great looking structure in the middle of the Caribbean this time of the year without being shredded apart l]



Yeah, no kidding. It has been awhile since we have seen this in the middle of the Caribbean no less.

It really looks like it is pulling together late this afternoon.
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Re: ATL: FOURTEEN - Tropical Depression - Discussion

#585 Postby MississippiWx » Thu Aug 20, 2020 4:02 pm

The outflow is perfect. A few strong bursts of convection near the center will help it tighten up. It should continue to slow its forward momentum which will only help the tightening process as well. This is in a much better environment than TD13.

Once the low levels are tightened up, the Yucatán is the only thing stopping this for a couple of days.
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Re: ATL: FOURTEEN - Tropical Depression - Discussion

#586 Postby FixySLN » Thu Aug 20, 2020 4:02 pm

Friendly reminder of two things:

1) It's 2020

2) This system is headed to the gulf...where nearly anything will thrive in its current state.

The models haven't reached a consensus, the mets have their arms up in the air...it's a fairly unique situation that doesn't have an answer yet. The models are...also likely confused. It's likely they're having trouble with the possible interaction, the changes in speed, and the increase in a positive environment over time. There's a LOT to take into account.
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Re: ATL: FOURTEEN - Tropical Depression - Discussion

#587 Postby wxman57 » Thu Aug 20, 2020 4:03 pm

If it is lacking a low-level circulation center, then it may not be as strong as predicted over the next 48-72 hours, and it may not be picked up by the trof as easily. May still track into Mexico. It does appear to have a vigorous mid=level circulation. Perhaps a LLC will eventually develop beneath it.
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Re: ATL: FOURTEEN - Tropical Depression - Discussion

#588 Postby tolakram » Thu Aug 20, 2020 4:05 pm

Image
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Re: ATL: FOURTEEN - Tropical Depression - Discussion

#589 Postby aspen » Thu Aug 20, 2020 4:06 pm

The NHC put the center far lower than in the previous advisory, but given how loose the circulation is, I’m expecting more jumps to the north (and possibly south again) before a definitive, stacked CoC forms. It now seems like the best opportunity for intensification will be between 30 and 66 hours, after scraping Central America and before making landfall in the Yucatán Peninsula.
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Re: ATL: FOURTEEN - Tropical Depression - Discussion

#590 Postby supercane4867 » Thu Aug 20, 2020 4:07 pm

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Re: ATL: FOURTEEN - Tropical Depression - Discussion

#591 Postby Kingarabian » Thu Aug 20, 2020 4:07 pm

The 12z GFS's "peak" for this system was in about 24-30 hours @ 999mb. So we still have some waiting to do. After it peaks anything is possible. We know that stronger systems react to less than ideal environments differently than something we're currently looking at.
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Re: ATL: FOURTEEN - Tropical Depression - Discussion

#592 Postby EquusStorm » Thu Aug 20, 2020 4:08 pm

The further south it tracks the worse the flood and mudslide risk for Honduras becomes; that's an area that seems quite prone to those issues. So either track scenario is bad news for someone
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Re: ATL: FOURTEEN - Tropical Depression - Discussion

#593 Postby MarioProtVI » Thu Aug 20, 2020 4:09 pm

Not buying the center they fixed onto at 5. Real center appears to be farther north, and as such I still think this may become a hurricane before reaching the Yucatan.
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Re: ATL: FOURTEEN - Tropical Depression - Discussion

#594 Postby tolakram » Thu Aug 20, 2020 4:11 pm

MarioProtVI wrote:Not buying the center they fixed onto at 5. Real center appears to be farther north, and as such I still think this may become a hurricane before reaching the Yucatan.


If it's at the surface it's pretty weak and or small. Look at the winds out of the east that recon found.

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Re: ATL: FOURTEEN - Tropical Depression - Discussion

#595 Postby hurricanehunter69 » Thu Aug 20, 2020 4:12 pm

What a gorgeous storm. This thing is coming together beautifully! 2 days over the NW Caribbean...…..Good Luck! https://www.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/GOES/s ... &length=24
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Re: ATL: FOURTEEN - Tropical Depression - Discussion

#596 Postby wxman57 » Thu Aug 20, 2020 4:17 pm

Remember, the models that accelerate it northwestward are relying on a stronger tropical storm (that's farther north to start with). I expect big changes with this forecast over the next day or two.
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Re: ATL: FOURTEEN - Tropical Depression - Discussion

#597 Postby shiny-pebble » Thu Aug 20, 2020 4:17 pm

If more convection fires in the center of the storm where there's that sort of convectionless area I would not be surprised if there's a center reformation under that

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Re: ATL: FOURTEEN - Tropical Depression - Discussion

#598 Postby GCANE » Thu Aug 20, 2020 4:21 pm

Kingarabian wrote:
lrak wrote:
Kingarabian wrote:Potential vorticity streamers
http://www.atmos.albany.edu/student/ppa ... ch_phd.php



So the potential vorticity streamers break up the Rossby wave and helps the storm to strengthen? Or if a Rossby wave is not occurring then they weaken the storm? Thanks....

Would love to answer your question but it's out of my pay grade. Maybe GCANE can answer.


PVS's are basically small elongated upper level vorts in about the 300mb to 200 mb level. That is the about the top of the troposphere. Because they are so high, they don't have updraft. Its actually the opposite, they create downdraft, sinking air, subsidence. So if there is a LL vort and a PVS gets over it, the PVS pushes down on the vort column and the vort spins less. Its the opposite of an anticyclone which allows the vort column to stretch vertically and spin faster.

PVS's come from many features such as TUTTs, Rossby Waves, UL Eddy's, etc. Sometimes its hard to figure out where they come from and how they evolve. The air is very thin up there, so they are very volatile. Many things can quickly effect them, especially strong convection. For a strong PVS and weak convection, the PVS wins. For a weak PVS and strong hot tower, the hot tower wins.
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Re: ATL: FOURTEEN - Tropical Depression - Discussion

#599 Postby lrak » Thu Aug 20, 2020 4:22 pm

GCANE wrote:
Kingarabian wrote:
lrak wrote:

So the potential vorticity streamers break up the Rossby wave and helps the storm to strengthen? Or if a Rossby wave is not occurring then they weaken the storm? Thanks....

Would love to answer your question but it's out of my pay grade. Maybe GCANE can answer.


PVS's are basically small elongated upper level vorts in about the 300mb to 200 mb level. That is the about the top of the troposphere. Because they are so high, they don't have updraft. Its actually the opposite, they create downdraft, sinking air, subsidence. So if there is a LL vort and a PVS gets over it, the PVS pushes down on the vort column and the vort spins less. Its the opposite of an anticyclone which allows the vort column to stretch vertically and spin faster.

PVS's come from many features such as TUTTs, Rossby Waves, UL Eddy's, etc. Sometimes its hard to figure out where they come from and how they evolve. The air is very thin up there, so they are very volatile. Many things can quickly effect them, especially strong convection. For a strong PVS and weak convection, the PVS wins. For a weak PVS and strong hot tower, the hot tower wins.


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Re: ATL: FOURTEEN - Tropical Depression - Discussion

#600 Postby xironman » Thu Aug 20, 2020 4:26 pm

I could definitely see the coc migrating northward to the best convection.
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