ATL: LAURA - Models

[tarheelprogrammer]

The 12z ECM EPS didn’t help matters much at all.

We have a fairly large TD with some dry air at mid level but nothing over impressive, low shear for much of its journey and coming underneath an expanding and strengthening Bermuda Ridge as it gets basically North of Hispaniola.....all recipes for major intensification. What are we missing?

I believe the models see the dry air, which has always been an issue for intensification. If dry air is as bad as many of them say, this system will struggle. I believe the models will settle on a low-end category 1 as time goes on. Dry air will likely limit the storm, but I doubt it kills the storm or keeps it low-end TS with all that energy out there.

[Evil Jeremy]

The 12z ECM EPS didn’t help matters much at all.

We have a fairly large TD with some dry air at mid level but nothing over impressive, low shear for much of its journey and coming underneath an expanding and strengthening Bermuda Ridge as it gets basically North of Hispaniola, MJO in 8,1.....all recipes for major intensification. What are we missing?

I don't think we're missing anything, by which I mean the NHC has looked at all the available data and determined that intensification is likely once 13 gets into the Bahamas. Now, the NHC would not forecast major intensification while this is still a TD, that's just how they operate, but it's clear they see favorable conditions in 13's future.

NHC knows not to get caught up in specific global model runs when forecasting future intensity.

[SouthFLTropics]

18z GFS coming in SW of 12z and faster. Similar to what ICON had.

[SouthFLTropics]

54 hours, GFS is flirting with Hispaniola. It better gain some latitude or its going to get eaten by the mountains.

[cp79]

54 hours, GFS is flirting with Hispaniola. It better gain some latitude or its going to get eaten by the mountains.

This is what I was talking about earlier. Weak systems go more westerly and this thing is looking about as weak as a system can be. The euro may be on to something.

[SouthFLTropics]

66 hour GFS... Vorticity looks to consolidate on the Northern coast of Hispaniola. Almost as if the island helped bring it together. Where have we seen that before... I'm talking to you Isaias.

[SouthFLTropics]

72 hours, Vorticity looks better than 12z near Great Inagua. Headed WNW.

EDIT: 78 hours... Not so looking so good.

[ConvergenceZone]

54 hours, GFS is flirting with Hispaniola. It better gain some latitude or its going to get eaten by the mountains.

This is what I was talking about earlier. Weak systems go more westerly and this thing is looking about as weak as a system can be. The euro may be on to something.

Exactly. This could be a beginning southward trend in the models. bringing this over Cuba, and IF that happens, there’s no question about it, this would be toast! We will see if other models begin going south as well. I thought the track looked way too North to me, for such a weak system

[gatorcane]

Just a broad low again on the 18Z GFS. Looks to get close to Hispaniola which doesn't help. I think we will see the crazy HWRF and HMON solutions trend downward. ICON which for some reason is posted alot, really has trended downward in intensity. The Euro and GFS insist this won't be much when it is in the Bahamas or near Southern Florida so that is some good news:

[ConvergenceZone]

Just a broad low again on the 18Z GFS. Looks to get close to Hispaniola which doesn't help. I think we will see the crazy HWRF and HMON solutions trend downward. The Euro and GFS insist this won't be much when it is in the Bahamas or near Florida. That is some good news:

https://i.postimg.cc/j2nNbhPp/gfs-z850-vort-watl-15.png

I’m now with you gator on this one. Originally I didn’t agree with you a few days ago, but now I think you are onto something

[SouthFLTropics]

It's time for the 18z Michael Bay movie... Let the fireworks begin. The HMON and HWRF will commence shortly. Do they back off or do they stay aggressive???

[BobHarlem]

 https://twitter.com/AndyHazelton/status/1296567885998039046

[SouthFLTropics]

So far, through 30 hours, not much to see on the HMON.

[Blown Away]

So far, through 30 hours, not much to see on the HMON.

If TD13 becomes what the HWRF/HMON/CMC/etc are showing near SFL, it won’t happen w/o the EURO/GFS showing similar system. We are starting to get in short range, so either the Euro/GFS will begin seeing the better conditions in the Bahamas or the HWRF/HMON/CMC/etc will begin to back off. Whichever model camp is right, the other will start moving in that direction over the next few cycles.

[TheStormExpert]

So far, through 30 hours, not much to see on the HMON.

If TD13 becomes what the HWRF/HMON/CMC/etc are showing near SFL, it won’t happen w/o the EURO/GFS showing similar system. We are starting to get in short range, so either the Euro/GFS will begin seeing the better conditions in the Bahamas or the HWRF/HMON/CMC/etc will begin to back off. Whichever model camp is right, the other will start moving in that direction over the next few cycles.

I’m betting the hurricane models back off as they’re more than not too overly bullish.

[AutoPenalti]

HMON showing absolutely nothing the next 24 hours.

[ConvergenceZone]

So far, through 30 hours, not much to see on the HMON.

If TD13 becomes what the HWRF/HMON/CMC/etc are showing near SFL, it won’t happen w/o the EURO/GFS showing similar system. We are starting to get in short range, so either the Euro/GFS will begin seeing the better conditions in the Bahamas or the HWRF/HMON/CMC/etc will begin to back off. Whichever model camp is right, the other will start moving in that direction over the next few cycles.

I’m slowly getting more interest in TD 14 at this point with other models now trending weaker with TD 13. If the HWRF/HMON/CMC also start trending noticeably weaker, this won’t have much model support left

[SouthFLTropics]

This HMON run doesn't look like it's going to end well for our friend TD 13... Appears like Hispaniola is in its future.

[SouthFLTropics]

This HMON run doesn't look like it's going to end well for our friend TD 13... Appears like Hispaniola is in its future.

On second thought...Hold the phone. The patient has life after a reformation around Puerto Rico. Emerging on the North side of the islands between PR and DR.

[NDG]

Through 36 hrs HWRF is much weaker than previous 12z run, an open wave through the Lesser Antilles.