ATL: MARCO - Remnants - Discussion

[tailgater]

Correct me if I’m wrong but it seemed like a lot of the models were showing a weak low crashing into Honduras/ Nicaragua then dissipating and then another low forming north of there.

[GCANE]

Maybe a touch off topic, but this is GoM related. Interesting though to say the least.

 https://twitter.com/ScotPilie_Wx/status/1296546834362634264




 https://twitter.com/ScotPilie_Wx/status/1296516500623433733

[supercane4867]

The tale of two depressions: race to become Laura

TD14 taking the lead.

[Javlin]

Well the last few vis sat loops hints of building convection near what I perceive as a possible center, and perhaps a hint of a more northerly component as well.. banding In the SE quad also appear to be improving.. all in all not too shabby for a TD in the grand scheme of things...

I just looked at the visible and it sure looks more NNW/NW the NHC track had it sliding over Honduras looks like it might miss it all together..that is if what I saw was the center about 15.5N 81.0W?

Is there multiple vorts?

https://www.weathernerds.org/satellite/ ... nitsst=Off

[Cpv17]

Maybe a touch off topic, but this is GoM related. Interesting though to say the least.

https://twitter.com/ScotPilie_Wx/status/1296546834362634264

https://twitter.com/ScotPilie_Wx/status/1296516500623433733

I counted 9 but ok that’s pretty darn cool! Never seen anything like that before.

[GCANE]

With the PVS gone, this one could get the ball rollin

[Steve]

Correct me if I’m wrong but it seemed like a lot of the models were showing a weak low crashing into Honduras/ Nicaragua then dissipating and then another low forming north of there.

.

Some did earlier. Some had runs where the lowest pressure might have been over land at the point of output. Most of the recent ones showed it coming up toward the Yucatan via water, so even if the center is close to or on the coast, it should refire east of Central America.

[Frank P]

With the PVS gone, this one could get the ball rollin

https://i.imgur.com/TkR5edv.png

Javelin, the center is close to where GCANE drew his circle

[Javlin]

That's why the question about the multiple vorts maybe I had not looked at the NHC for cords just got in from work you know that thing called work Frank or did you finally retire?Anyway that area just seemed to have a lot rotation why I thought it might of been the center? Oh well not the first time to be wrong!

https://www.weathernerds.org/satellite/ ... nitsst=Off

[SoupBone]

Correct me if I’m wrong but it seemed like a lot of the models were showing a weak low crashing into Honduras/ Nicaragua then dissipating and then another low forming north of there.

I don't recall which ones but early on in this system's runs, those solutions were very much what it was showing. But not for a while now.

[gatorcane]

My TD #14 analysis graphic. a TS looks quite possible somewhere in the NW Gulf possibly SE Texas area. Upper-level winds will be decent but not ideal:

[EquusStorm]

Could have its best shot east of the Yucatan, but if it stays a while over Honduras it might have to reorganize and won't have as much opportunity. Not that northern Honduras is as mountainous as some areas, but certainly isn't going to help. Nasty flooding risk there.

[hipshot]

My TD #14 analysis graphic. a TS looks quite possible somewhere in the NW Gulf possibly SE Texas area. Upper-level winds will be decent but not ideal:

https://i.postimg.cc/zX2DsPNv/tropical-ge-14km-wv-1.gif

I think it all depends on the strength of the ridge east of Florida and the trough over Texas.
Looks like it could hit the central coast nearer La. and miss Texas altogether. Not a forecast, JM2C

[shiny-pebble]

Is it possible land interaction tightens this up??

Sent from my SM-G970U using Tapatalk

[Kazmit]

I wasn't expecting this.

[tailgater]

Convention certainly collapsed in the last few hours. It’s already starting to fire back up though so.......

[stormlover2013]

I wasn't expecting this.

https://img.techpowerup.org/200821/025457-5day-cone-no-line-and-wind.png

What ??

[CrazyC83]

With the 32 kt buoy report (adjusted) it is very close to storm status. This should become Laura, since TD13 may not even be closed right now.

[Hypercane_Kyle]

Worth noting, from Stewart at 11:00 PM EDT.

By
120 hours, the GFS- and ECMWF-based SHIPS models show the vertical
wind shear increasing sharply from the southwest to 20-25 kt, which
would normally induce weakening. However, it appears that those
models are incorporating some strong jetstream winds of 60-70 kt
well to the northwest of the center of the cyclone, which has
resulted in high bias in the shear output. Therefore, the cyclone
is forecast to be near hurricane strength when it approaches the
Texas coast in 120 hours.

[Nederlander]

I wasn't expecting this.

https://img.techpowerup.org/200821/025457-5day-cone-no-line-and-wind.png

Whoa...

Kudos to the NHC for also acknowledging the models have been trash this year.