ATL: LAURA - Models

[Hybridstorm_November2001]

AT least the "out to sea" talk can finally stop based upon that consolidation of models. It ain't happening...

Given the setup with that monster High to its north, out to sea was never a variable medium to long-rang option (as indicated by all the reliable synoptic models) in this case, anyone who stated otherwise (within the past three days) knows nothing of atmospheric dynamics.

[Ken711]

https://cdn1.bbcode0.com/uploads/2020/8/21/e277bcc45bd427690853227ac03b26da-full.gif

That ridge to the north is huge.

[stormhunter7]

11pm from Blake..... THE GUIDANCE HAS TRENDED TO THE SOUTH AND WEST AFTER 24 HOURS TONIGHT, LED BY
THE GFS AND HWRF MODELS. I'M NOT INCLINED TO MAKE SIGNIFICANT CHANGES SINCE THE MODELS ARE ABOUT TO INGEST THE INFORMATION FROM THE RECONNAISSANCE MISSION, PLUS THE INITIAL DISORGANIZATION OF THE
CENTER, BUT THE NEW TRACK IS STILL ADJUSTED SLIGHTLY TO THE SOUTH AND WEST, NORTH OF MUCH OF THE GUIDANCE.

[supercane4867]

00z ICON landfall on Cuba.

[eastcoastFL]

HWRF keeps the circulation fairly compact. Looks like Elena 85.

https://i.imgur.com/si5b95Z.png

I SEE A PROBLEM HERE, but maybe I'm grabbing at straws here
Wouldn't we see at least the eastern fringes of TD 14 in this simulated sat pic? The model has absolutely ZERO interaction with what may be a formidable TC in the West Central Gulf at the same time according to this simulation. Interaction with TD 14 would almost guarantee some more noticeable northerly component to 13's movement once near the Florida Peninsula and Eastern Gulf. The beginnings of Fujiwara effect

I don’t think so. 13 is in this location 24 hours after 14 makes landfall in Texas

[lsuhurricane]

Icon makes second landfall near the LA/MS border as a hurricane. Wild models swings

[HouTXmetro]

Current NHC forecast shows 2 Hurricanes approaching the coast at the same time 8PM Tuesday!!! One upper, Texas Coast (Houston) and the the Other approaching Mobile/Pensacola/FL Panhandle!! Unreal

[SouthFLTropics]

Well the Canadian's aren't giving up on 13 just yet...

[pcolaman]

Well the Canadian's aren't giving up on 13 just yet...

https://i.imgur.com/I9CX1PE.gif

See how big and strong it ended up at at 132 hours?

[Ivanhater]

00Z Icon and Canadian

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[SouthFLTropics]

Well the Canadian's aren't giving up on 13 just yet...

https://i.imgur.com/I9CX1PE.gif

See how big and strong it ended up at at 132 hours?

Yeah, headed up to your neck of the woods. Maybe the CMC is up to its old tricks from years past to blowing stuff up. HWRF and HMON are running now.

[pcolaman]

00Z Icon and Canadian https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20200821/42a2686ea941676e50e662d8398b59fe.jpg https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20200821/2f4f167591dc50b5b7283143ffb0b14e.jpg

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Not looking good for us here in Pcola

[FLpanhandle91]

Starting to get a bit stir crazy here in the Fort Walton Beach area. Going to be an interesting week for sure. So much of the westerly progression of this storm rides on TD14.

[Janie2006]

Speeding up that HWRF run, I could make a really good argument for it landfalling in Mobile County.
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 018&fh=108

Hush your mouth.

[Janie2006]

Current NHC forecast shows 2 Hurricanes approaching the coast at the same time 8PM Tuesday!!! One upper, Texas Coast (Houston) and the the Other approaching Mobile/Pensacola/FL Panhandle!! Unreal

Should half of this pan out we’ll be seeing two tropical cyclones in the Gulf at the same time, and I *think* that hasn’t happened since 1959.

[Steve]

Speeding up that HWRF run, I could make a really good argument for it landfalling in Mobile County.
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 018&fh=108

Hush your mouth.

Janie. Cup lifted.

That run was from this afternoon and probably the scariest since a couple models were flashing deep Cat 3 signals in SE FL yesterday. HWRF is running now. I'm about to go to bed, but I'll try to stay up and see if either it or the HMON are worth commenting on.

[pcolaman]

Speeding up that HWRF run, I could make a really good argument for it landfalling in Mobile County.
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 018&fh=108

Hush your mouth.

Janie. Cup lifted.

That run was from this afternoon and probably the scariest since a couple models were flashing deep Cat 3 signals in SE FL yesterday. HWRF is running now. I'm about to go to bed, but I'll try to stay up and see if either it or the HMON are worth commenting on.

What happened to the HMON ? Bad run?

[fci]

Current NHC forecast shows 2 Hurricanes approaching the coast at the same time 8PM Tuesday!!! One upper, Texas Coast (Houston) and the the Other approaching Mobile/Pensacola/FL Panhandle!! Unreal

I don't see that happening. According to the things I have read about the Fujiwhara effect there would be consequences if storms were within 900 miles of each other.
Perhaps 13 would be shunted off to the right or more likely; one of these systems is not a named storm when they are within several hundred miles of each other.
Just seems like the chance of 2 Hurricanes in the GOM at one time is highly unlikely.
But then again; it is 2020.........

[SoupBone]

00Z Icon and Canadian https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20200821/42a2686ea941676e50e662d8398b59fe.jpg https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20200821/2f4f167591dc50b5b7283143ffb0b14e.jpg

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Any sound reasoning why the ICON would favor 13 over 14?

[Steve]

It's running. I didn't look at the initialization though. 18z ended up south of the MS Coast about 27.5N/88.5w. On the 00Z run to 51 hours, it's diffused through the big islands. We'll see where it goes from there as well as the HWRF which was the one ringing the alarm bells.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 2100&fh=51