ATL: MARCO - Remnants - Discussion

[Visioen]

So basically now everything hinges on where the definitive LLC will be located. Decisive moments coming.

[GCANE]

ARCHER Scoring is putting the ASCAT center fix at 14.5N 82.4W

[GCANE]

Rossby Wave getting hammered in the GoM.
Tons of moisture coming into it from OK and thru the Yucatan Channel.
Any strengthening from TD14 with increasing outflow and it will tear the Rossby Wave apart.

[GCANE]

Ventilation would be greatly increased if this evolves into a 355K PV Ring in the next couple days.

[GCANE]

Looking at the shear map, the Rossby wave appears to be lifting to the NE.
Its taking shear along with it.
How this continues in the next couple days will be critical in terms of shear conditions in the GoM when TD14 enters.

BTW, the anticyclone is to the NE of the CoC.

[3090]

It APPEARS to have taken a significant “bounce” NW and away from the Honduras coast and has rapidly developed some big tstorms around its COC. Visible will tell the tale soon enough.

[Shell Mound]

It APPEARS to have taken a significant “bounce” NW and away from the Honduras coast and has rapidly developed some big tstorms around its COC. Visible will tell the tale soon enough.

Given that the structure is still less tilted than that of TD Thirteen, combined with the fact that the ongoing outflow channels are more typical of a (low-end major?) hurricane than a TD, I think this has a better chance to be named Laura later today or tonight than TD Thirteen, which still has some work to do in regard to alignment of its mid- and low-level centres, whereas TD Fourteen is already vertically stacked and embedded in an environment of low VWS. Plus, the LLC is much tighter and more organised in TD Fourteen than in TD Thirteen. Therefore, I think Fourteen will become Laura later today and Thirteen will become Marco sometime tomorrow.

[Extratropical94]

Recon found a nice swirl near 16.1N 84.1W

[dantonlsu]

Hard to tell exactly where this is going to go until after it's interaction with the Yucatan.

[3090]

Recon found a nice swirl near 16.1N 84.1W


https://i.imgur.com/dJJwhxW.png

Possible center reformation? Would have dramatic down the road (track) implications.

[xironman]

Brisk west winds south of the swirl. It has a closed circulation.

[Extratropical94]

Recon found a nice swirl near 16.1N 84.1W


https://i.imgur.com/dJJwhxW.png

Possible center reformation? Would have dramatic down the road (track) implications.

Yes, looks like the old surface vorticity maximum dissipated over land and a new weak LLC reformed under the deeper convection. There might still be multiple vortices further east though, as they just found straight west winds to the SE of the "new" LLC

[Visioen]

With no well defined center I think a swirl that is not on land will take control. Which implies north-shift.

[NDG]

There's the LLC that formed during the night.

[3090]

TD14 beginning to see a flattened west side. Appears it is beginning to feel the influence of the wave to its NNW, digging on TD14. Will be interesting to see today, if the forecast track changes, or not. Considering the broad center, or possible multiple centers, it will be another interesting day.

[Do_For_Love]

Tropical Depression Fourteen Discussion Number 4
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142020
500 AM EDT Fri Aug 21 2020

Germany ICON global models are showing
some binary interaction between the depression and Tropical
Depression Thirteen around the 96-120 hr period while both systems
are situated in the Gulf of Mexico. If this scenario actually
occurs, the interaction could delay or slow tropical depression
Fourteen's landfall over the northwestern Gulf coast.

That's crazy. Not enough room for all these storms lol...

Honestly though, that seems kinda bad if it does come to pass. Slower storm = more time for strengthening potentially and more time for rain dumping.

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the NHC and NWS.

[Visioen]

Cmon plane, fly faster.

I have no patience lol.

[GCANE]

Looks like a pulled tooth

[hipshot]

A different take on -removed-, but since I live in Texas I wish we would get Laura. Not even ready for all the Marco Polo jokes. Lol

Why? Have you ever been through a hurricane?

I was afraid somebody would misread that. Yes I've been through several including Harvey. I will delete it.

I don't know about the rest of you, but I have posted one of those " now that was kind of a stupid question" and wanted to delete it
but couldn't find out how. Help....how do you delete a post here, I can on other boards.

[Visioen]

Why? Have you ever been through a hurricane?

I was afraid somebody would misread that. Yes I've been through several including Harvey. I will delete it.

I don't know about the rest of you, but I have posted one of those " now that was kind of a stupid question" and wanted to delete it
but couldn't find out how. Help....how do you delete a post here, I can on other boards.

After someone replies in the same thread, you can't anymore. At first there is a 'delete' button next to the edit button.