Shell Mound wrote:ColdMiser123 wrote:WxEp wrote:
Appears to be stronger at that point than it has been since the Aug 18 00z run (not that that is saying much).
Between H24 and H48 it weakens but it's still relatively stronger than recent previous runs for what it's worth.
These are some pretty significant changes still in the short-term on the Euro.
This ultimately may have more significant forecast implications down the road if this continues to take place with future runs.
https://i.imgur.com/AQykUgX.gif
So far models have distinctly trended toward a stronger and more westerly trajectory with both TD Thirteen and TD Fourteen.
If Fourteen is farther W in the GoM while Thirteen nears S FL, then there may be sufficient “space” to support two strong ‘canes.
The big takeaway is that the ridge has continued to become stronger with each passing run, so stronger systems still head W(NW).
Personally, I don’t think the latest HWRF solutions are so implausible as far as intensity goes (I side with the EPS for 500-mb setup).
Quite a trend toward much stronger ridging on the EC suite(s)—important, given we are now within three days of potential impact(s):
But I don’t think it will miss the state. A landfall in the Keys or (more probably) the Miami area seems probable at this point.
