ATL: LAURA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[Shell Mound]

000
WTNT63 KNHC 211305
TCUAT3

Tropical Storm Laura Tropical Cyclone Update
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132020
905 AM AST Fri Aug 21 2020

...NOAA HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT FINDS THAT THE DEPRESSION HAS
STRENGTHENED TO TROPICAL STORM LAURA...

Data from a NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate that Tropical
Depression Thirteen has strengthened and is now Tropical Storm
Laura with maximum sustained winds of around 45 mph (75 km/h). The
aircraft also found that the center of Laura is located south of the
previously estimated position. These changes will be reflected in
the track and intensity forecasts with the upcoming advisory that
will be issued at 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC).


SUMMARY OF 905 AM AST...1305 UTC...INFORMATION
---------------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.0N 59.8W
ABOUT 230 MI...375 KM ESE OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 21 MPH...33 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1008 MB...29.77 INCHES

$$
Forecaster Brennan/Pasch

Source

[toad strangler]

Even if they upgrade, the system looks sheared and mid-level dry air looks to be a problem as it heads west. Also land interaction is another inhibitor. I am glad the NHC finally mentioned some of the inhibitors in the discussion which I have mentioned are there and would hinder development. The GFS and the Euro keep this weak the next 5 days. The HWRF keeps pushing back its CAT 5 prediction. I wouldn’t expect much from this wave or you may be disappointed. There is a chance that once it passes Florida it may become a hurricane but that is questionable looking at the state of the system and the inhibitors ahead.

Second system this year to approach S FL form the E. Let's hope it goes as modeled by the globals.

[SFLcane]

 https://twitter.com/NHC_Atlantic/status/1296797119165079552

[Lance]

Will having a defined center help the models now? Give them something "real" to start with?

[otowntiger]

000
WTNT63 KNHC 211305
TCUAT3

Tropical Storm Laura Tropical Cyclone Update
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132020
905 AM AST Fri Aug 21 2020

...NOAA HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT FINDS THAT THE DEPRESSION HAS
STRENGTHENED TO TROPICAL STORM LAURA...

Data from a NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate that Tropical
Depression Thirteen has strengthened and is now Tropical Storm
Laura with maximum sustained winds of around 45 mph (75 km/h). The
aircraft also found that the center of Laura is located south of the
previously estimated position. These changes will be reflected in
the track and intensity forecasts with the upcoming advisory that
will be issued at 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC).


SUMMARY OF 905 AM AST...1305 UTC...INFORMATION
---------------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.0N 59.8W
ABOUT 230 MI...375 KM ESE OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 21 MPH...33 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1008 MB...29.77 INCHES

$$
Forecaster Brennan/Pasch

Source

Very important point there about the center being further south than previously thought. depending upon how far south, that could have huge implications track wise down the line, i.e. scraping the islands and staying further from south FL, also of course will have intensity impacts as interacting with the land will keep it in check.

[gatorcane]

Even if they upgrade, the system looks sheared and mid-level dry air looks to be a problem as it heads west. Also land interaction is another inhibitor. I am glad the NHC finally mentioned some of the inhibitors in the discussion which I have mentioned are there and would hinder development. The GFS and the Euro keep this weak the next 5 days. The HWRF keeps pushing back its CAT 5 prediction. I wouldn’t expect much from this wave or you may be disappointed. There is a chance that once it passes Florida it may become a hurricane but that is questionable looking at the state of the system and the inhibitors ahead.

Second system this year to approach S FL form the E. Let's hope it goes as modeled by the globals.

Sure waves come in from the east all the time. I am still calling this a strong, sheared, wave. We got a few days of a strong Bermuda High which has been rare. Let's see if we get one when there is actually a legitimate threat. I still think no...

[Aric Dunn]

Just waking up... i see wee have some interesting developments.. models are going to love this recon data lol

Euro.. open wide ! lol

[eastcoastFL]

HWRF with a 943mb major headed for the bama/fl coast

[NDG]

Amazing how land interaction always helps to close a circulation, never fails!

[ColdMiser123]

It would not surprise me at all if we saw center reformations going forward, given that this is a pretty weakly closed LLC. HWRF has been doing the best with the evolution thus far, and shows this taking place near PR/Hispaniola.

[Dean4Storms]

Looks very disorganized even though it has a closed low, higher winds well removed from the center and prolly more baroclinically driven at this point.

[AutoPenalti]

Plenty of TS force winds just NW the CoC which seems to be trying to reform further NW.

NOAA2 0213A CYCLONE HDOB 27 20200821
125330 1638N 05948W 8402 01635 0112 +216 +112 054016 017 033 004 00
125400 1639N 05950W 8433 01605 0111 +222 +107 060023 024 035 004 00
125430 1640N 05951W 8433 01602 0111 +226 +102 048028 030 034 004 00
125500 1642N 05953W 8433 01604 0106 +229 +097 048034 035 036 001 00
125530 1643N 05954W 8431 01612 0104 +233 +095 046029 031 036 000 00
125600 1644N 05956W 8416 01622 0105 +233 +095 049024 025 034 001 00
125630 1646N 05957W 8415 01627 0105 +231 +098 057026 028 035 001 00
125700 1647N 05959W 8433 01599 0102 +230 +099 072027 028 036 002 00
125730 1649N 06000W 8433 01604 0105 +229 +099 079027 027 039 003 00
125800 1650N 06002W 8433 01603 0102 +228 +103 083030 032 040 004 00
125830 1651N 06003W 8429 01604 0100 +229 +099 101029 030 041 002 00
125900 1653N 06005W 8421 01606 0096 +233 +094 106025 027 041 003 00
125930 1655N 06006W 8432 01599 0098 +232 +092 104027 029 043 001 00
130000 1656N 06008W 8406 01624 0096 +233 +092 102030 030 041 000 00
130030 1658N 06009W 8430 01603 0098 +233 +090 103030 031 035 000 00
130100 1659N 06011W 8433 01594 0096 +230 +096 109031 032 031 000 00
130130 1701N 06013W 8428 01606 0100 +229 +096 113032 032 029 000 03
130200 1703N 06014W 8414 01624 0101 +230 +094 114033 034 027 000 00
130230 1704N 06016W 8422 01611 0098 +231 +093 114033 033 029 000 03
130300 1706N 06017W 8414 01622 0102 +228 +095 112035 035 030 000 00

Well now Recon found the center waaaay South,

[NDG]

Just waking up... i see wee have some interesting developments.. models are going to love this recon data lol

About time you got up to give me a break, I am sure you are not surprised by the current developments
I need to start packing for the weekend on the beach in Anna Maria, talking about I will not be able to enjoy the beach, not that the weather will be bad but I'm going to be hooked on my phone screen, lol.

[Aric Dunn]

This is a classic center reformation set up.. just an fyi..

[NDG]

Plenty of TS force winds just NW the CoC which seems to be trying to reform further NW.

NOAA2 0213A CYCLONE HDOB 27 20200821
125330 1638N 05948W 8402 01635 0112 +216 +112 054016 017 033 004 00
125400 1639N 05950W 8433 01605 0111 +222 +107 060023 024 035 004 00
125430 1640N 05951W 8433 01602 0111 +226 +102 048028 030 034 004 00
125500 1642N 05953W 8433 01604 0106 +229 +097 048034 035 036 001 00
125530 1643N 05954W 8431 01612 0104 +233 +095 046029 031 036 000 00
125600 1644N 05956W 8416 01622 0105 +233 +095 049024 025 034 001 00
125630 1646N 05957W 8415 01627 0105 +231 +098 057026 028 035 001 00
125700 1647N 05959W 8433 01599 0102 +230 +099 072027 028 036 002 00
125730 1649N 06000W 8433 01604 0105 +229 +099 079027 027 039 003 00
125800 1650N 06002W 8433 01603 0102 +228 +103 083030 032 040 004 00
125830 1651N 06003W 8429 01604 0100 +229 +099 101029 030 041 002 00
125900 1653N 06005W 8421 01606 0096 +233 +094 106025 027 041 003 00
125930 1655N 06006W 8432 01599 0098 +232 +092 104027 029 043 001 00
130000 1656N 06008W 8406 01624 0096 +233 +092 102030 030 041 000 00
130030 1658N 06009W 8430 01603 0098 +233 +090 103030 031 035 000 00
130100 1659N 06011W 8433 01594 0096 +230 +096 109031 032 031 000 00
130130 1701N 06013W 8428 01606 0100 +229 +096 113032 032 029 000 03
130200 1703N 06014W 8414 01624 0101 +230 +094 114033 034 027 000 00
130230 1704N 06016W 8422 01611 0098 +231 +093 114033 033 029 000 03
130300 1706N 06017W 8414 01622 0102 +228 +095 112035 035 030 000 00

Well now Recon found the center waaaay South,

Yep, I think I mentioned before that the 06z HWRF forecasted this to happen, it will weaken before redeveloping further north later today.

[AutoPenalti]

This is a classsuc center reformation set up.. just an fyi..

I'm going with a center reformation further North.

[Weatherboy1]

Well, I said it would happen at 11. But guess NHC didn’t even need to wait that long. Open wave talk can be put to bed at least for now!

[Shell Mound]

For the sake of an argument, let’s suppose that the ECMWF is correct and Laura remains weak or dissipates over the Greater Antilles.

If this were to transpire, then why would the ECMWF have correctly handled Laura but failed to gauge Hanna’s more conducive area?

[Evil Jeremy]

Good signs this morning for South Florida. Not so much for interests in the Gulf. Still many open questions for everyone.

[Weatherboy1]

This is a classic center reformation set up.. just an fyi..

Yeah I wouldn’t be surprised in the least to see that happen in next day or two. Lot of questions about whether this interacts with GA islands. But my expected track is to north of them ... and GFS/Euro scenarios to prove too weak/wrong