ATL: LAURA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[MGC]

Have a feeling with the center being south the new track will shift to the left. Keys then central gulf coast perhaps...it keeps inching closer and closer to me......MGC

[Coaster]

Been a Form lurker for many years.

Question =>
Currently NHC is showing TD13 (Laura) and TD14 both making landfall approximately 300 miles from each other at approximately the same time.

Wouldn’t each TD interact with each other and effect the tacking direction of each other. How do the Hurricane Spaghetti Tracking Models account for the close proximity of each other?

[SFLcane]

Have a feeling with the center being south the new track will shift to the left. Keys then central gulf coast perhaps...it keeps inching closer and closer to me......MGC

Oh yea big shift coming south 12z is almost near Cuba now. Mainland SFL " Dade and Broward" might be out the cone expect the keys.

[Cataegis96]

The next disco/update should be interesting. Have a feeling NHC bumps the track a bit south, but keeps her over water. May only show slight intensification/hold steady up to 70W. After that, may see an adjustment upward in the 3-4-5 day intensity.

[ElectricStorm]

This looks to be a lose lose situation... Either South Florida takes a hit or it may go south into the gulf. And a developed storm entering the gulf in August is... Not good. Not good at all

[DestinHurricane]

Have a feeling with the center being south the new track will shift to the left. Keys then central gulf coast perhaps...it keeps inching closer and closer to me......MGC

Oh yea big shift coming south 12z is almost near Cuba now. Mainland SFL " Dade and Broward" might be out the cone expect the keys.

Yep. Looking more like this is going to be less of a problem for S FL and more of a problem for the Panhandle.

[SFLcane]

Looks like it might be going for a nice haircut " Shredzilla" might be a problem in the GOM.

[DestinHurricane]

If she can avoid cuba and miss S FL to the south, that's her best chance for RI to MH.

[Weatherboy1]

Banding structure appears to be improving to SE and NW last couple hours. Not incredibly vigorous convection over the center but it is constant. Will be very interested to see how next 2 model cycles handle evolution here. Trend to south overnight could - emphasis COULD - end if Laura strengthens earlier and more than expected

[StPeteMike]

Still premature to say SFL is out of the woods already, situations can always change.

Some models have TD14/Marco reaching the Gulf Coast while Laura is passing the Keys. A faster Marco and slower Laura could allow a break in the ridge and a recurve or further track north than what is forecasted. Like I have said, we should definitely have a better understanding tomorrow with both storms better developed. Laura will likely slow down the stronger it gets.

[chris_fit]

Did Recon stop reporting or is it just me?

[AutoPenalti]

Yeah, I'm still not buying the "south" solutions just yet until the CoC is actually fully established, we still have 96 hours (worse considering we have a new player in future Marco). It looks as if the reformation is going to occur further North.

[HurricaneEnzo]

I know the models have been hot garbage for the most part but curious to see what they say when they ingest this southern center relocation. If this thing shoots through the strait of Florida into the Gulf and the loop current this could get ugly if other conditions align.

[drezee]

Long term landfall implications mist be taken seriously.

[drezee]

 https://twitter.com/andretrotter/status/1296805555022045185

[cp79]

Couple observations:
1) If 14 heads up towards Louisiana, I don’t see Laura getting that deep into the Gulf. It’ll be the Bonnie/Charley scenario where one kicks the other to the right. So I think Laura will make a turn somewhere in the eastern gulf or get sheared by 14’s outflow.
2) A south center would put this in Hispaniola and Cuba’s way and put this thing on life support. So a center to the south would be great news for the US. This thing will get shredded by Hispaniola and then Cuba will gobble it up.

[Kazmit]

I don't see the GAs being a huge problem. Maybe just a hinderance for strengthening though. With all the weather north of the center, I would not be surprised by a center relocation further north under the convection, especially if it gets close to the big islands. And like we saw with Isaias, "the shredder" is not a storm destroyer, especially if it's still on the weak side by then.

[Shell Mound]

I don't see the GAs being a huge problem. Maybe just a hinderance for strengthening though. With all the weather north of the center, I would not be surprised by a center relocation further north under the convection, especially if it gets close to the big islands. And like we saw with Isaias, "the shredder" is not a storm destroyer, especially if it's still on the weak side by then.

Isaias, Fay (2008), and other storms have proven that the islands, if anything, help weaker systems via frictional convergence.

[cheezyWXguy]

https://twitter.com/andretrotter/status/1296805555022045185

Why tonight’s 0z euro? Last couple runs on the HWRF seem to have a decent handle on the broad nature of the system, and all of the models have had yesterday’s recon data fed into them overnight.

[robbielyn]

Have a feeling with the center being south the new track will shift to the left. Keys then central gulf coast perhaps...it keeps inching closer and closer to me......MGC

Oh yea big shift coming south 12z is almost near Cuba now. Mainland SFL " Dade and Broward" might be out the cone expect the keys.

Yep. Looking more like this is going to be less of a problem for S FL and more of a problem for the Panhandle.

Which ya’all don’t need.