ATL: LAURA - Models

[supercane4867]

12z ICON basically kills the current LLC over Hispaniola.

[kevin]

It's gonna be very interesting to see what the models (and of course real life) do the coming days. With the timespan until the expected dissipation or intensification becoming shorter, I think we'll see significant caving of certain models either this evening or tomorrow.

[plasticup]

It's gonna be very interesting to see what the models (and of course real life) do the coming days. With the timespan until the expected dissipation or intensification becoming shorter, I think we'll see significant caving of certain models either this evening or tomorrow.

The HH data is going to really help things too

[cp79]

Less than a month ago, Isaias ran into DR and somehow emerged slightly more consolidated on the other side.

It really depends on how organized Laura is when it reaches those mountainous terrains. Less organized, less disruption.

No it won’t. And I’m not saying it’s going to hit them. I think it’s a strong possibility though. I give this a 50% chance of this dying in Cuba, 25% that it survives and comes out weak and 25% that it clears to the north and gets hurricane strength around the Bahamas or Eastern Gulf As the HWRF suggests.

Yeah but it went over the north and avoided Cuba. Some models have this going over the worst of Hispaniola and then Cuba. I’m not sold she’s gonna come out alive.

It won't take much latitude for Laura to avoid the GA.

I give it a 25% chance of clearing it completely and staying north. 25% that it comes out beaten and bruised. And 50% that it gets ripped apart and dies in Cuba. We’ll see what happens.

[SFLcane]

12z ICON basically kills the current LLC over Hispaniola.

Quite possible considering its current state.

[canes92]

Would be terrible for the Keys if HWRF verified as the area just went through Irma 3 years ago.

[hohnywx]

12z ICON basically kills the current LLC over Hispaniola.

Quite possible considering its current state.

But not likely, per NHC:

For now, we will assume that the
northern part of the circulation will remain over water so that the
system will not be too disrupted by Hispaniola and Cuba.

[AutoPenalti]

No it won’t. And I’m not saying it’s going to hit them. I think it’s a strong possibility though. I give this a 50% chance of this dying in Cuba, 25% that it survives and comes out weak and 25% that it clears to the north and gets hurricane strength around the Bahamas or Eastern Gulf As the HWRF suggests.

Yeah but it went over the north and avoided Cuba. Some models have this going over the worst of Hispaniola and then Cuba. I’m not sold she’s gonna come out alive.

It won't take much latitude for Laura to avoid the GA.

I give it a 25% chance of clearing it completely and staying north. 25% that it comes out beaten and bruised. And 50% that it gets ripped apart and dies in Cuba. We’ll see what happens.

NHC disagrees with you for the moment.

[Ivanhater]

12Z Icon

Sent from my SM-G955U using Tapatalk

[Ivanhater]

Now the gfs wants to send a weak low to Texas

[NDG]

Now the gfs wants to send a weak low to Texas

But but... what I about that east coast trough/early fall pattern we were supposed to be going into?

In all seriousness, not surprising it could do that if the Bermuda ridge pattern takes over the eastern US as many pros have been warning would happen as we get into the peak of the hurricane season.

[fox13weather]

12z ICON basically kills the current LLC over Hispaniola.

Quite possible considering its current state.

But not likely, per NHC:

For now, we will assume that the
northern part of the circulation will remain over water so that the
system will not be too disrupted by Hispaniola and Cuba.

Huh? They said "For now, we will assume" ...which can be translated to ..."we are gonna stick with this but confidence is low...."

[FLpanhandle91]

I know it seems like the easy way out, but during times like these I trust the NHC guidance above all else. I have seen them nail obscure forecast tracks time and time again.

[NDG]

Big shift to the south & west by the 12z CMC, tracks it across Hispaniola and eastern Cuba, so a weaker system in the GOM through 96 hrs.

[wxman22]

Im not buying it though lol

[mitchell]

Huh? They said "For now, we will assume" ...which can be translated to ..."we are gonna stick with this but confidence is low...."

I had the same reaction when i read that. "For now we will assume" is definitely a choice of words that most people hopefully wouldn't use if they meant, "It seems likely that" or similar.

[Ivanhater]

12Z Canadian

Sent from my SM-G955U using Tapatalk

[Hammy]

Let’s be honest. If this thing doesn’t track north of the DR/Cuba, she’s dead.

Less than a month ago, Isaias ran into DR and somehow emerged slightly more consolidated on the other side.

It really depends on how organized Laura is when it reaches those mountainous terrains. Less organized, less disruption.

Isaias didn't track over the highest mountains. I see a lot of people throwing Frederic around but (provided it survives in the first place) Claudette from 1979 would be a far likelier outcome provided it stays north or south of Cuba as Frederic also missed the highest terrain--taking a more southern track over the island and emerging past Haiti tends to be more disruptive than skirting the northeast part of the island.

[cp79]

Looking better for Fla. Thank God. Tampa can’t take anymore rain after this week. Been a complete mess. My backyard is under water.

[kevin]

12z HMON so far North of 06z. The center scrapes/barely misses Puerto Rico and at 36 hours there is a 992 mbar storm instead of a 1008 mbar mess. The track of the following 2 days will be crucial for the development of Laura.