2020 Indicators: SST's / SAL / MSLP / Steering / Shear / Instability / Sat Images

[gatorcane]

Summary of some possible prohibiting indicators mentioned in this thread previously:

1. Record SAL surge earlier this season - mid-level dry air still plagues the Atlantic even as we head into late August. Struggling TD #13 and #14 are
good examples
2. SST anomalies across Atlantic show a continued warming of the subtropical Atlantic faster than the MDR is warming. I would like to see warm SST anomalies in the MDR and cooler than normal across the subtropical Atlantic as an indicator for a hyperactive season.
3. SSTs are warmer than normal south of Mexico/CA and north of the equator - we have already seen the EPAC take advantage which has resulted in less favorable conditions across the Western Caribbean
4. Shear anomalies have been higher than expected even for August, perhaps because of 3.
5. Weaker than expected WPAC activity to date. SSTs are running above normal in the WPAC yet still nothing significant. Even during La Ninas I would expect some more activity.

Number of named storms was really not the question, it is really whether we see hyperactive ACE since conditions are supposed to be as good as they get out there.

I still think the Western Caribbean/Gulf could be an area to watch as we head later into the season because of warmer than normal SSTs there and possible La Nina conditions.

Not saying we won't see major hurricanes at some point, but will we reach hyperactive ACE?

[EquusStorm]

Truly hyperactive ACE is a tough nut to crack; extremely impressive and destructive seasons like 2008 with five majors failed to reach that. Wouldn't be too shocked if we just stay high end AA if we don't get majors that are also extremely long lived like 2004 and 2017 had. Of course all it would take is an Ivan/Irma-style storm in mid September and that could push us over, but we won't know for a while. High AA is a safe bet, hyper while fairly likely certainly isn't a promise

[toad strangler]

Summary of some possible prohibiting indicators mentioned in this thread previously:

1. Record SAL surge earlier this season - mid-level dry air still plagues the Atlantic even as we head into late August. Struggling TD #13 and #14 are
good examples
2. SST anomalies across Atlantic show a continued warming of the subtropical Atlantic faster than the MDR is warming. I would like to see warm SST anomalies in the MDR and cooler than normal across the subtropical Atlantic as an indicator for a hyperactive season.
3. SSTs are warmer than normal south of Mexico/CA and north of the equator - we have already seen the EPAC take advantage which has resulted in less favorable conditions across the Western Caribbean
4. Shear anomalies have been higher than expected even for August, perhaps because of 3.
5. Weaker than expected WPAC activity to date. SSTs are running above normal in the WPAC yet still nothing significant. Even during La Ninas I would expect some more activity.

Number of named storms was really not the question, it is really whether we see hyperactive ACE since conditions are supposed to be as good as they get out there.

I still think the Western Caribbean/Gulf could be an area to watch as we head later into the season because of warmer than normal SSTs there and possible La Nina conditions.

Not saying we won't see major hurricanes at some point, but will we reach hyperactive ACE?

A real possibility that we can have TWO hurricanes in the GOM at the same time which would be a first in recorded history. And there are still 10 days left in August.

[toad strangler]

[quote="toad strangler"][quote="gatorcane"]Summary of some possible prohibiting indicators mentioned in this thread previously:


 https://twitter.com/philklotzbach/status/1296826859343106049

[Kiko Snowe]

Personally, I don't find it likely at all that we're going to have two simultaneous Gulf of Mexico hurricanes. It will be interesting to see how the two storms interact and influence eachother, though.

[shiny-pebble]

3 years ago Harvey was a tropical wave after dissipating in the Caribbean. Things change quickly. You can see everyone is getting antsy with this season and many forget what other seasons were like at this time.

Sent from my SM-G970U using Tapatalk

[CyclonicFury]

Summary of some possible prohibiting indicators mentioned in this thread previously:

1. Record SAL surge earlier this season - mid-level dry air still plagues the Atlantic even as we head into late August. Struggling TD #13 and #14 are
good examples
2. SST anomalies across Atlantic show a continued warming of the subtropical Atlantic faster than the MDR is warming. I would like to see warm SST anomalies in the MDR and cooler than normal across the subtropical Atlantic as an indicator for a hyperactive season.
3. SSTs are warmer than normal south of Mexico/CA and north of the equator - we have already seen the EPAC take advantage which has resulted in less favorable conditions across the Western Caribbean
4. Shear anomalies have been higher than expected even for August, perhaps because of 3.
5. Weaker than expected WPAC activity to date. SSTs are running above normal in the WPAC yet still nothing significant. Even during La Ninas I would expect some more activity.

Number of named storms was really not the question, it is really whether we see hyperactive ACE since conditions are supposed to be as good as they get out there.

I still think the Western Caribbean/Gulf could be an area to watch as we head later into the season because of warmer than normal SSTs there and possible La Nina conditions.

Not saying we won't see major hurricanes at some point, but will we reach hyperactive ACE?

I don't think a SAL surge in June means anything for the peak of the season.

[shiny-pebble]

If by the 10th we still have struggling storms then we should talk about the season struggling. It's important to remember we're still 20 days off the peak.

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[Hammy]

If by the 10th we still have struggling storms then we should talk about the season struggling. It's important to remember we're still 20 days off the peak.

Sent from my SM-G970U using Tapatalk

It's still certainly unusual either way that we'd have two storms organize and become hurricanes fairly quickly in late July and yet have two storms currently struggling.

Kind of ironic with all the talk of that favorable VP anomalies moving in and the peak and how productive the season has been up to early August, that this is all it can offer up when you'd expect something more on par with late July's activity, regardless of how the season ends up turning out later.

Summary of some possible prohibiting indicators mentioned in this thread previously:

4. Shear anomalies have been higher than expected even for August, perhaps because of 3.

Most people expected lower shear because they dismissed the models that were showing higher shear in August--it's actually been on par with modeling and the CFS did indicate August being less active than July. Strange as it is compared to July the season isn't really doing anything that wasn't shown months ago.

[tiger_deF]

If by the 10th we still have struggling storms then we should talk about the season struggling. It's important to remember we're still 20 days off the peak.

Sent from my SM-G970U using Tapatalk

Absolutely, ACEwise we are still a good 60% above average

[tolakram]

Summary of some possible prohibiting indicators mentioned in this thread previously:

1. Record SAL surge earlier this season - mid-level dry air still plagues the Atlantic even as we head into late August. Struggling TD #13 and #14 are
good examples
2. SST anomalies across Atlantic show a continued warming of the subtropical Atlantic faster than the MDR is warming. I would like to see warm SST anomalies in the MDR and cooler than normal across the subtropical Atlantic as an indicator for a hyperactive season.
3. SSTs are warmer than normal south of Mexico/CA and north of the equator - we have already seen the EPAC take advantage which has resulted in less favorable conditions across the Western Caribbean
4. Shear anomalies have been higher than expected even for August, perhaps because of 3.
5. Weaker than expected WPAC activity to date. SSTs are running above normal in the WPAC yet still nothing significant. Even during La Ninas I would expect some more activity.

Number of named storms was really not the question, it is really whether we see hyperactive ACE since conditions are supposed to be as good as they get out there.

I still think the Western Caribbean/Gulf could be an area to watch as we head later into the season because of warmer than normal SSTs there and possible La Nina conditions.

Not saying we won't see major hurricanes at some point, but will we reach hyperactive ACE?

How do you arrive at #4? Are you saying the expectation was for more below normal?

Reference: https://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/TCFP/atlantic.html

[aspen]

3 years ago Harvey was a tropical wave after dissipating in the Caribbean. Things change quickly. You can see everyone is getting antsy with this season and many forget what other seasons were like at this time.

Sent from my SM-G970U using Tapatalk

How did dry air throughout the basin in mid-late August 2017 compare to it now? It seems a little unusually dry out there in the MDR.

[EquusStorm]

Here's conditions on August 19 2017 for reference - guess it remains to be seen which way things trend

[Hammy]

3 years ago Harvey was a tropical wave after dissipating in the Caribbean. Things change quickly. You can see everyone is getting antsy with this season and many forget what other seasons were like at this time.

Sent from my SM-G970U using Tapatalk

How did dry air throughout the basin in mid-late August 2017 compare to it now? It seems a little unusually dry out there in the MDR.

Seemed like it was higher. 2017 for all it's activity actually saw less frequency of wave development than a lot of other active seasons that saw storm outbreaks with 3-4 storms forming back to back like we saw in late August 2010 or early September 2018.

[SconnieCane]

3 years ago Harvey was a tropical wave after dissipating in the Caribbean. Things change quickly. You can see everyone is getting antsy with this season and many forget what other seasons were like at this time.

Sent from my SM-G970U using Tapatalk

How did dry air throughout the basin in mid-late August 2017 compare to it now? It seems a little unusually dry out there in the MDR.

https://i.imgur.com/TKcdRNJ.png

https://i.imgur.com/ImCiyvm.jpg

Seemed like it was higher. 2017 for all it's activity actually saw less frequency of wave development than a lot of other active seasons that saw storm outbreaks with 3-4 storms forming back to back like we saw in late August 2010 or early September 2018.

Based on that graphic it doesn't look like it should be that dry where Laura is. Yet SOMETHING is preventing it from getting its act together.

[tolakram]

SLIDER has the eclipse archive online still where you can see Harvey forming in the western Caribbean, skips frames, then explodes in the gulf. Gulf conditions look a lot more favorable than they do now.

https://rammb-slider.cira.colostate.edu/?sat=goes-16&z=1&im=6&ts=6&st=20170821150218&et=20170824235217&speed=130&motion=loop&map=1&lat=0&opacity%5B0%5D=1&hidden%5B0%5D=0&pause=0&slider=-1&hide_controls=0&mouse_draw=0&follow_feature=0&follow_hide=0&s=rammb-slider&sec=conus&p%5B0%5D=geocolor&x=4008.000244140625&y=5059.931793212891

[EquusStorm]

[toad strangler]

How did dry air throughout the basin in mid-late August 2017 compare to it now? It seems a little unusually dry out there in the MDR.

https://i.imgur.com/TKcdRNJ.png

https://i.imgur.com/ImCiyvm.jpg

Seemed like it was higher. 2017 for all it's activity actually saw less frequency of wave development than a lot of other active seasons that saw storm outbreaks with 3-4 storms forming back to back like we saw in late August 2010 or early September 2018.

Based on that graphic it doesn't look like it should be that dry where Laura is. Yet SOMETHING is preventing it from getting its act together.

Tons of shear previous to today. Shear at different levels and direction. Watch Levi Cowans videos!

[aspen]

https://i.imgur.com/TKcdRNJ.png

https://i.imgur.com/ImCiyvm.jpg

Seemed like it was higher. 2017 for all it's activity actually saw less frequency of wave development than a lot of other active seasons that saw storm outbreaks with 3-4 storms forming back to back like we saw in late August 2010 or early September 2018.

Based on that graphic it doesn't look like it should be that dry where Laura is. Yet SOMETHING is preventing it from getting its act together.

Tons of shear previous to today. Shear at different levels and direction. Watch Levi Cowans videos!

I was about to mention the shear. Someone else posted a graphic on Laura’s thread that showed rather significant mid-level shear currently impacting the system.

[AxaltaRacing24]

Based on that graphic it doesn't look like it should be that dry where Laura is. Yet SOMETHING is preventing it from getting its act together.

Tons of shear previous to today. Shear at different levels and direction. Watch Levi Cowans videos!

I was about to mention the shear. Someone else posted a graphic on Laura’s thread that showed rather significant mid-level shear currently impacting the system.

yep just shear. just a reminder that in 2017, the tutt didn’t truly break up until a day before irma arrived there. it basically got out the way just in time.

2017 didn’t truly get strong july and august activity because shear, dry air, and the tutt sitting in the central atlantic.