ATL: MARCO - Remnants - Discussion

[tiger_deF]

This is one of those systems that looks way better on visible than on IR, the LLC is potent and holding together, only a matter of time before strengthening begins

[tailgater]

This “new center” seems well defined, much more than yesterday when the system looked so ominous. As others have said, if convention builds around that center today it will likely ramp up quickly before it reaches the Yucatán peninsula

[Frank P]

appears a little hot tower is trying to pop just north of the center as it moves off NNW

[GCANE]

Looking at Visible Satellite.
The turning of the cumulus appears to be improving the farther from the CoC.

[wxman57]

At least this system does appear to have an LLC now:

[Craters]

Steering is pretty straightforward so I wouldn’t expect a major shift in the forecast track. As for interaction, I am a little less bullish on this as Laura would really need to speed up and/or 14 slow down substantially. Also, Laura looks like she is headed for a lot of land interaction with Hisp. and Cuba.

I'm not so convinced. In this morning's discussions with our pro met, he mentioned that this tug north could move the track further east into the central Louisiana coast, IF the system were to become better developed. I think the story for this system will be defined in the coming hours.

Yeah agree with that definitely. By major shift, I mean anything >150-200miles. Matagorda to Vermillion all in play IMO.

And don't forget -- the cone covers only 67% (one sigma, I assume) of the potential (historical) error. Locations beyond Matagorda and Vermillion Parish aren't completely out of the clear, either.

[hipshot]

Future forecast track is going to be interesting. It is moving slightly west of due north, according to local met.

Is following the convection, but it should start heading more NW later on as it starts bumping into the Bermuda ridge building in westward towards FL.

Isn't there a trough building over Texas too? Between the 2 of them, this thing looks to be heading eventually more due north or N.E.

[wxman22]

The trough is expected to weaken and leave a weakness over the western gulf.And the ridge over the southeast is expected to strengthen. Which is why the track has it going more northwest.

[wxman57]

Fourteen may yet make landfall in south TX or Mexico as a very weak system.

[SoupBone]

Future forecast track is going to be interesting. It is moving slightly west of due north, according to local met.

Is following the convection, but it should start heading more NW later on as it starts bumping into the Bermuda ridge building in westward towards FL.

Isn't there a trough building over Texas too? Between the 2 of them, this thing looks to be heading eventually more due north or N.E.

Maybe, but there's also a wall of high pressure building to its east. That's why the Louisiana solutions are there, but not much further east of SELA.

[SoupBone]

Fourteen may yet make landfall in south TX or Mexico as a very weak system.

Man I wish I could pick your brain and get the "why" behind this possibility.

Everything is so all over the place with only several days left until landfall.

[Hammy]

I was certainly expecting a more organized system than this today given that massive outflow last night. Surprised TD13 made it to Laura first.

[Frank P]

Convection continues to slowly build around the core’s NE quad, it not much but it’s a hint of getting better organized..

[StPeteMike]

Fourteen may yet make landfall in south TX or Mexico as a very weak system.

Honestly, this has been my thinking as well and a reason I’ve been more busy in the Laura threads than TD14. For a storm that doesn’t have much going against it, it has struggled to really get its act together.

[Nederlander]

Convection continues to slowly build around the core’s NE quad, it not much but it’s a hint of getting better organized..

Yep and right as we enter dmin. If it can sustain then tonight it might finally get it’s act together on approach to the Yucatán.

[SoupBone]

Fourteen may yet make landfall in south TX or Mexico as a very weak system.

Honestly, this has been my thinking as well and a reason I’ve been more busy in the Laura threads than TD14. For a storm that doesn’t have much going against it, it has struggled to really get its act together.

And yet, most models still send it to SE Texas or Louisiana. Unreal, this season.

[Hypercane_Kyle]

Decent structure, albeit lacking in convection.

[aspen]

I see a naked swirl going almost due north on high-res visible satellite imagery. It might be trying to get under the deeper convection that’s further north.

[Nimbus]

The swirl headed toward Cozumel might be a keeper, its gathering a little convection so if we see a burst there the models focusing on Louisiana landfall may verify.

[galaxy401]

TD14 just needs to get a good convective burst over the center and it will probably take off. Looks like it could happen at any moment too.