ATL: MARCO - Models

[Nederlander]

12z ICON

14 - weak and winding down off the SE TX Coast

Laura - Hits Harrison County, MS (Gulfport/Biloxi) late Tuesday night.
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 112&fh=111

Not buying the ICON solution - it has Laura traveling down the spine of Cuba without major disruption to the core. If she doesn’t clear to the north, I don’t see her surviving that trek. GFS scenario seems more plausible.

[catskillfire51]

GFS with a big change going to Brownsville or Corpus almost it seems

[SoupBone]

What in the world is the GFS doing? It's now having it as a Tex/Mex system. Anyone know how it initialized?

[catskillfire51]

What in the world is the GFS doing? It's not having it as a Tex/Mex system. Anyone know how it initialized?

Poorly, pretty much has it as a wave 6 hours from now which seems unlikely.

[catskillfire51]

and GFS brings Laura all the way across the Gulf and hits Galveston area as a Tropical Storm it seems

[stormlover2013]

GFS para cat 2 upper tx coast

[SkyEye]

and GFS brings Laura all the way across the Gulf and hits Galveston area as a Tropical Storm it seems

Yes, I couldn’t believe what I was seeing with that run!

[Hammy]

What in the world is the GFS doing? It's now having it as a Tex/Mex system. Anyone know how it initialized?

Given when the recon was, it probably didn't any data from it (12z initialization is 8am EDT) so the 18z run will probably be more telling.

[SoupBone]

What in the world is the GFS doing? It's now having it as a Tex/Mex system. Anyone know how it initialized?

Given when the recon was, it probably didn't any data from it (12z initialization is 8am EDT) so the 18z run will probably be more telling.

Yeah I agree. though wxman mentioned the GFS's (not specifically the model) solution in the other thread. I don't know a season where the models have windshield wiped a thousand miles either way with a only days left in a forecast. The lastest CMC looks to bring whatever's left of it into Tex/Mex.

[PTrackerLA]

12z HMON

[SoupBone]

12z HMON

https://i.imgur.com/g1ykAG7.png

Both HMON and HWRF have a central Lousiana landfall, very similar to each other.

[PTrackerLA]

12z HMON

[SoupBone]

I don't get what the Euro does honestly. It looks like TD14 going in near Corpus Christi, then next slide it's jumped into Louisiana unless that's Laura.

[Horn1991]

I don't get what the Euro does honestly. It looks like TD14 going in near Corpus Christi, then next slide it's jumped into Louisiana unless that's Laura.

https://i.imgur.com/syR6p3s.png

It’s Laura

[catskillfire51]

I don't get what the Euro does honestly. It looks like TD14 going in near Corpus Christi, then next slide it's jumped into Louisiana unless that's Laura.

https://i.imgur.com/syR6p3s.png

Yes that is Laura, trekking all the way across the gulf.... Kind of like the GFS just Laura is further North into Louisiana

[xironman]

Here is both of them Tuesday morning

[cp79]

I agree with what the Euro/GFS are showing. I think this thing will fight to survive and just keep moving west as a weak system into either TX or Mexico. It’s gonna take a beating from Hispanola. Not really buying the HWRF solution. Its not gonna miss these islands.

[xironman]

I agree with what the Euro/GFS are showing. I think this thing will fight to survive and just keep moving west as a weak system into either TX or Mexico. It’s gonna take a beating from Hispanola. Not really buying the HWRF solution. Its not gonna miss these islands.

Fourteen will not be anywhere near Hispaniola.

[cheezyWXguy]

I agree with what the Euro/GFS are showing. I think this thing will fight to survive and just keep moving west as a weak system into either TX or Mexico. It’s gonna take a beating from Hispanola. Not really buying the HWRF solution. Its not gonna miss these islands.

Wrong thread, and what gives you that level of certainty?

[La Breeze]

How reliable are the HMON and HWRF? Wondering...