2020 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

[Hammy]

Same story with the 18Z GFS, keeps significant activity in the EPAC and weak development to very little on the Atlantic side with timeframe coming in. I am not saying it is right but it is very persistent and still one of the best models in the world so can’t be completely discarded. Maybe we will see some more EPAC storms and some development on the Atlantic side too, but maybe not major hurricanes or high ACE storms just yet in the Atlantic.

GFS has been, by far, the worst of the models this year and has been outperformed on numerous occasions by the ICON, and even several pro mets have said to disregard the GFS output. For one reason or another it's not in any way getting an accurate read on the atmosphere.

[Hurricane Mike]

That CMC run is terrifying.

[toad strangler]

Oy vey, we have two possible big problems inbound. Posting here because It applies in both of the other threads. That CMC run hones in on nearly the same spot. Shades of Frances and Jeanne, different location.... but BAM BAM. Rare... plenty of time fore changes

[aspen]

Hey guys, whatever you do, don’t look at the 12z NAVGEM model if you want to sleep well tonight.

[Blinhart]

Hey guys, whatever you do, don’t look at the 12z NAVGEM model if you want to sleep well tonight.

What does it show 2 Cat 5's in the Gulf and another 2 or 3 in the Atlantic.

[aspen]

Hey guys, whatever you do, don’t look at the 12z NAVGEM model if you want to sleep well tonight.

What does it show 2 Cat 5's in the Gulf and another 2 or 3 in the Atlantic.

A hurricane in the Gulf and a hurricane off the coast of Florida...at the same time.

[gatorcane]

The GFS continues with no love for the Atlantic. Look out at 10 days at all of that dry air while the EPAC side is moist:

[aspen]

Well, the 12z GFS-Para is tons of “fun”.
—97L bombs out to a 959 mbar Cat 3 in the Gulf near landfall in Louisiana
—98L runs over the Greater Antilles, but becomes a moderate to strong TS in the Gulf
—The new AEW quickly develops and becomes a long tracking MDR hurricane, taking an Irma-like track and peaking as a Cat 1 before quickly recurving once it reaches the Bahamas. It scrapes the Outer Banks and heads out to sea

Now that several models have started developing the third AEW, and show a new TC not long after it gets off the coast and a long track as well, it could be something to start watching in a few days.

[Steve]

Lol at the Para vs the OG. OG says not to worry the rest of August. Not even a depression!
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 918&fh=210

[gatorcane]

The overnight runs of the GFS and Euro don’t show any development beyond the current TD 13 and 14 rest of August. Considering both of these TDS look like low ACE struggling systems due to only marginally conducive conditions, so far the globals have been handling the Atlantic well in not showing any big ACE producing systems. The GFS has a new hurricane showing up in the EPAC.

The ECMWF and GFS one week from now as we approach peak, looks very quiet:

[Extratropical94]

The Canadian ensemble lights up the MDR with 3-4 waves developing during the next 2 weeks.

[shiny-pebble]

The Canadian ensemble lights up the MDR with 3-4 waves developing during the next 2 weeks.

CMC has been spot on with MDR TC genesis this season.... So that is concerning to say the least!!

Sent from my SM-G970U using Tapatalk

[sma10]

12z 21 Aug Euro has two developing central atlantic waves heading westward under strong ridging by the end of Aug

[MetroMike]

12z 21 Aug Euro has two developing central atlantic waves heading westward under strong ridging by the end of Aug

That is the way things are supposed to happen. About time given the plethora of strange model issues and unknown inhibiting factors that seem to be present in the Atlantic basin.

[DorkyMcDorkface]

Not to take away from our two current systems but the Euro appears to really get the wave train going to close out the month. This will be around the time the MJO begins to linger over Africa, so I am not surprised that it is picking up on this. Continue to watch for signals on the models, especially since there have been several instances where they have had to play catch-up this year.

[Hammy]

Not to take away from our two current systems but the Euro appears to really get the wave train going to close out the month. This will be around the time the MJO begins to linger over Africa, so I am not surprised that it is picking up on this. Continue to watch for signals on the models, especially since there have been several instances where they have had to play catch-up this year.

https://i.ibb.co/k1qSKRj/ecmwf-uv850-vort-eatl-fh96-240.gif

I'm skeptical this far out given how things have performed in the MDR so far, but it's interesting given the Euro tends to struggle terribly with MDR systems--if this becomes a trend on the Euro then we could end up seeing something along the lines of what the CFS was showing, which was pretty much nonstop activity for the first half of September.

[CyclonicFury]

Not to take away from our two current systems but the Euro appears to really get the wave train going to close out the month. This will be around the time the MJO begins to linger over Africa, so I am not surprised that it is picking up on this. Continue to watch for signals on the models, especially since there have been several instances where they have had to play catch-up this year.

https://i.ibb.co/k1qSKRj/ecmwf-uv850-vort-eatl-fh96-240.gif

I'm skeptical this far out given how things have performed in the MDR so far, but it's interesting given the Euro tends to struggle terribly with MDR systems--if this becomes a trend on the Euro then we could end up seeing something along the lines of what the CFS was showing, which was pretty much nonstop activity for the first half of September.

Conditions in the MDR can change quickly. 2017 had nothing stronger than 45 kt in the MDR prior to August 30. 2019 had no hurricanes in the MDR prior to September 19 and still managed to produce Jerry (a Category 2) and Lorenzo (a high end Category 4) in the latter half of September. Even 2010 didn't have any MDR hurricanes until August 23. We have, however, had 4 TCs form in the MDR so far, which is well above average through this date even if none have been hurricanes yet.

[lrak]

The Sun's cycles have an affect also on the seasons per Jeff Masters...https://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMasters/solar-impacts-on-hurricanes.html#:~:text=Near%20the%20peak%20of%20the,surface%20temperature%20and%20El%20Ni%C3%B1o.

I haven't researched any of this, I only know the Sun is completely void of any activity last year and 2020 YTD...wanted to through it out there so everyone else would do the work for me.

[EquusStorm]

Given that the 12z Euro is showing MDR activity, and the 18z GFS shows at least weak but definitely still present MDR storms going into September and isn't ignoring Laura, fingers crossed they're starting to improve in the Atlantic as we ramp up toward peak. Now to see if that disappears at 0z or they double down...

[St0rmTh0r]

Dangerous landfall pattern stubbornly stuck in place as the peak approaches and wave train cranks up