ATL: LAURA - Models

[Kingarabian]

18z GFS hour 96:

[Hurricaneman]

18z GFS 90hr + trend from the most recent runs:
https://i.imgur.com/aaYAemO.gif

Ridge trending stronger, I wouldn’t say even Texas is out of the woods

[aspen]

18z GFS hour 96:
https://i.imgur.com/naqNZbu.png

I’m shocked the GFS is that strong. It’s kept Laura loose and weak for most of its runs.

[Kingarabian]

18z GFS hour 96-108:

[ColdMiser123]

The ceiling is quite high for this if there is enough of a low level vorticity signature that makes it into a pretty favorable environment out ahead of it.

[Kingarabian]

18z GFS hour 96:
https://i.imgur.com/naqNZbu.png

I’m shocked the GFS is that strong. It’s kept Laura loose and weak for most of its runs.

I'm actually not surprised. It is August and it is the GOM I'm also proud that we as a community knew the models were not handling the systems properly and that Laura has a much higher ceiling than forecast.

[Fancy1001]

18z GFS hour 96-108:
https://i.imgur.com/CNdyu6q.gif

That hwfr model is looking less and less unlikely. Both the GFS and Euro are slowly coming aboard.

[Kingarabian]

18z GFS hour 114 starting to slow down:

[Blown Away]

My amateur opinion, 12z & 18z are slowing Laura way down compared to previous runs and all more of a N component early on. I’m thinking any COC reforms to the E should allow more E component down the road.The 18z GFS was based on the 5pm position or very close.

[AxaltaRacing24]

also, for intensity, the gfs is less than 20mb off of the hwrf's 940's. just saying.

[Kingarabian]

18z GFS hours 108-126 and still deepening:

[Nederlander]

Bombing out off of SWLA

[Kingarabian]

18z GFS about to landfall around hour 132:

[TallahasseeMan]

the CMC and HWRF have led the way with this system.

[bella_may]

the CMC and HWRF have led the way with this system.

Yeah they’ve been surprising this year

[Kingarabian]

18z GFS hour 138:

[BigB0882]

I can’t believe the difference in track from these last runs from what I looked at just this morning. I thought Louisiana was definitely safe from Laura and maybe needed to watch 14. Now it seems the other way around and it’s even possible according to the Euro ensembles this ends up even further west than Louisiana. But scariest of all is that this is looking more and more like it has the chance to absolutely bomb out. Will take everything to come together but the chance is there.

[shiny-pebble]

GFS went from barely a TS to a low end CAT 3/high end CAT 2. There is something seriously wrong with the models if this verifies. We're not even too far out at this point and its flip flopping like crazy.

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[Kingarabian]

GFS went from barely a TS to a low end CAT 3/high end CAT 2. There is something seriously wrong with the models if this verifies. We're not even too far out at this point and its flip flopping like crazy.

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This is simply the correction run by the GFS. Unfortunately future runs could end up even stronger.

[northjaxpro]

GFS went from barely a TS to a low end CAT 3/high end CAT 2. There is something seriously wrong with the models if this verifies. We're not even too far out at this point and its flip flopping like crazy.

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Wild swings indeed.